Survey of Political Leanings Sees 3rd Party Idea Gaining : Politics: Times Mirror poll finds nation roiling with resentments, anxieties. Major parties are losing pull.

Disillusioned with President Clinton and uncertain about the Republican Party, Americans increasingly say they are willing to support a new third party, an extensive new poll has found.

The survey by the Times Mirror Center for the People & the Press portrays a nation roiling with resentments and anxieties: cynical toward government, hostile to immigrants, sharply divided along racial lines over the responsibility of government to help the needy, suspicious of the media, uncertain about the future and increasingly untethered to either of the two major parties. It suggests that the wave of anxiety about the nation’s direction that propelled Clinton into office has not crested--and could well submerge the President and his party in the November mid-term elections.

Although Democrats have frantically sought to prevent Republicans from framing the 1994 election as a referendum on Clinton, the desire to send a message to the White House could become a determining factor, the poll found.

Nearly three-fourths of those polled who approve of the President’s job performance say they will back Democrats in the November elections; but almost three-fourths who give him poor marks say they will support Republicans. That’s ominous news for the Democrats: just 42% of those surveyed in early September approved of Clinton’s performance, while 52% disapproved.

The survey was taken before the agreement reached Sunday to remove the Haitian military leaders from power, which could boost Clinton’s public standing.

Beyond its implications for November, the poll points toward a period of political fluidity and instability--with Republicans divided on social issues, Democrats riven by racial disputes and disagreements about the role of government, and many middle-income independents convinced that neither party knows how to alleviate the economic pressures they face. “One of the most striking findings of the new survey is the declining role of the parties as a framework around which Americans organize their political thinking,” the authors write.

The findings are based on 4,809 interviews conducted in July and repeat interviews with 1,500 respondents earlier this month. The Times Mirror survey has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

Times Mirror Co. is the owner of the Los Angeles Times and other newspaper, broadcasting and publishing enterprises.

The poll updates a political “typology” introduced by Times Mirror in 1987. In that 1987 survey, the pollsters used dozens of questions about values and political attitudes to segment Americans into 11 clusters with distinct political and social profiles.

Viewing the electorate through this lens illuminated the fissures in both of the party coalitions, as well as the divisions between the independents at the fulcrum of the political debate. The 1987 survey, for instance, found that Republicans were divided almost equally between two contrasting groups: economically conservative and upscale “enterprisers,” and socially conservative “moralists.” It found Democratic-leaning groups divided between older, socially conservative “New Dealers,” upper middle-class and socially tolerant “ ‘60s Democrats,” and the heavily minority “partisan poor.”

The new survey finds the electorate now organizing into a significantly different pattern than in the mid-1980s. Under the strains of growing alienation from government and uncertainty about the future, the poll finds, the tenuous partisan alignment in the first survey has further fractionated.

The new poll identifies 10 distinct clusters of voters. Six are groups identified in the first survey. Four of the groups are new: “Libertarians,” who are fiscally conservative and socially tolerant; “new economy independents,” a predominantly female and economically stressed group; the “embittered,” a downscale alienated group skeptical about government’s capacity; and centrist “new Democrats,” who favor measures to protect the environment but are more pro-business than other Democrats.

To some extent, the poll portrays a long-term shift in allegiance toward the GOP. In the 1987 survey, the groups that leaned toward Democrats constituted 41% of probable voters, compared with 31% for the GOP. The new survey finds the Republican-leaning groups now make up 36% of registered voters, compared with 34% for the Democrats.

But the larger story is the weakening partisan adhesion on both sides of the ideological divide. In the first survey, six groups exhibited sufficient loyalty to one party to be identified as a core constituency. In the new survey, only the conservative, pro-business “enterprisers” and the liberal “partisan poor” “display sufficient commitment to their parties to be regarded as ‘core’ groups,” the authors write.

Among the other groups, allegiance to either party has attenuated. Just two-thirds of “moralists” call themselves Republicans. Less than half of the socially liberal “seculars,” another holdover group from the 1987 survey, call themselves Democrats.

The groups at the center of the electorate each identify more with Democrats than Republicans. But those attachments are weak among both the “new economy independents” and the “embittered.”

Both of those groups, in fact, indicate substantial support for a third party: 68% of the “new independents” and 56% of the “embittered” say they are open to a new choice. Together with two socially liberal groups--the “seculars” and “Libertarians”--they constitute the core of support for a new party.

Seen through a more traditional demographic prism, the poll finds broad-based support for the concept of a third party. Overall, 53% of those surveyed are open to a new party, while 43% are opposed. That’s up from 1982, when Americans were divided 44% to 44% on the question in an ABC/Washington Post poll.

In the new poll, support for a new party is most intense among the young--with more than 60% of those 29 and younger backing the idea. Ideologically, the notion surprisingly draws the widest support from liberals, with 61% endorsing the idea. Support for a third party is also somewhat higher in the West, among men and with suburbanites.

Another measure of dissatisfaction with the parties is the continued strength of Ross Perot in a 1996 ballot test, despite an erosion in his public standing. In the poll, those who think favorably of Perot outnumber critics by just 51% to 45%. (In contrast, Clinton receives a 58%-41% positive rating on that broad assessment of attitudes toward public figures).

But even so, a mock 1996 ballot shows Perot roughly duplicating his 1992 performance, when he captured 19% of the vote. Matched against Clinton and Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.) in a hypothetical 1996 race, Perot captures 20% of the vote--with Clinton holding 39% and Dole 36%.

Other findings underscore Perot’s potential to divide the anti-incumbent vote in 1996--just as he did in 1992. Matched head-on in a two-way race, Dole leads Clinton 49% to 46%. In a hypothetical two-way race with retired Gen. Colin L. Powell, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as the GOP nominee, Clinton fares even more poorly: Powell holds a striking 51%-41% advantage. Powell captures one-fourth or more of the vote from each of the Democratic-leaning groups, except the “partisan poor.”

Those numbers may be less meaningful as a prediction of how Americans will actually vote in 1996 than as an expression of immediate discontent with Clinton that could influence the 1994 campaign. In almost all respects, the poll finds Democrats are facing an extremely adverse electoral environment--even though 64% of those polled describe themselves as “pretty well satisfied” with their personal financial situation.

The public now gives Republicans a 12-percentage-point advantage over the Democrats on being able to manage the federal government effectively; a 21-point advantage on being well-organized; a 20-point advantage on making “wise decisions about the country’s defense policies”; a 13-point advantage on ensuring American competitiveness in the world economy, and 12-point leads on both protecting traditional values and promoting morality and personal responsibility.

Despite Clinton’s passage of the five-year $500-billion deficit reduction plan last year, the public prefers the GOP over Democrats by six percentage points when asked which party can best reduce the federal budget deficit.

Democrats lead the GOP on concern for the disadvantaged, protecting the environment, reforming the health care system, improving schools and empathy for the concerns of average Americans. On the bottom line of which party voters intend to support in the congressional mid-term elections, Republicans now narrowly lead the Democrats, 48% to 46%; last July, the Democrats held a two-point advantage, according to the survey.

Perhaps even more ominous for Democrats is the enormous resistance in the survey to the core party belief that activist government programs can ameliorate the nation’s problems.

Although Clinton has attempted to revive faith in Washington through such reforms as his “reinventing government” initiative, the poll found that Americans’ attitudes toward the federal government have not improved since he took office.

Americans see the federal government as unresponsive: More than 8 in 10 of those polled agree that elected officials in Washington “lose touch with the people pretty quickly”; two-thirds reject the proposition that “most elected officials care what people like me think”; and nearly 3 in 5 disagree that “the government is really run for the benefit of all the people.” Each of those findings is virtually identical to the response in 1992.

At the same time, according to the poll, the public overwhelmingly sees government as ineffective: 69% of those polled agree that government programs are usually inefficient and wasteful; that the federal government “controls too much of our daily lives”; and that dealing with a federal agency is often not worth the trouble. Just over 3 in 5 say government “regulation of business usually does more harm than good.”

That skepticism about government undermines support for new initiatives to help the poor. In the poll, almost 3 in 5 Americans agree with the broad statements that government has a responsibility “to take care of people who can’t take care of themselves” and should “guarantee every citizen enough to eat and a place to sleep.”

But on the operational question of whether government should do more to help needy people “even if it means going deeper into debt,” attitudes reverse: 56% say no and just 41% yes. That is a sharp deterioration in support since 1992, when 53% backed more spending even at the cost of greater debt.

The slide in support for new social spending has come almost entirely among whites. In 1992, 50% of whites and 77% of blacks endorsed new spending; in the new poll, 73% of blacks still back such programs. But only 37% of whites are now willing to spend more on the poor if it means exacerbating the federal deficit.

That finding illuminates one of the poll’s most striking aspects: the hardening of differences between blacks and whites on racially charged issues. Although the poll finds support for tolerance at a personal level--two-thirds of whites and nearly 90% of blacks endorse interracial dating--it also captures clashing attitudes on the nature and extent of opportunities for minorities.

In the survey, the percentage of whites who say that the nation has gone too far in “pushing equal rights” jumps to 51% from 42% only two years ago; likewise, the percentage of whites who say that the condition of blacks hasn’t improved much in recent years drops to 44%, down from 54% in 1992. Nearly 3 in 4 whites reject the idea that government should grant blacks and other minorities “preferential treatment” to improve their condition. On each of those questions, blacks overwhelmingly take the opposite position.

At the root of these differences is a clashing perspective on the possibility for Americans to get ahead through individual initiative. Overwhelming majorities of whites and blacks agree that “poor people have become too dependent on government assistance programs.” But a majority of blacks say that “success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside our control”; three-fifths of whites reject that proposition.

In this polarizing environment, even the attachment of African Americans to the Democratic Party--perhaps the sturdiest bond in American politics over the past 30 years--shows faint signs of fraying. The poll finds that the percentage of blacks in the most Democratic-leaning clusters has declined to 54% from 63% in 1987. Nearly one-third of blacks now fit into the independent-minded groups at the electorate’s center.

“Although blacks are no more inclined to embrace Republican attitudes,” the study concludes, “they have become less prone to hold a set of political values that is explicitly Democratic.”

The New Electorate: Where Do You Fit?

In its extensive new survey of American attitudes and values, the Times Mirror Center for The People & The Press groups the electorate into ten distinct clusters, each with a common set of political beliefs. One group -- the so-called Bystanders -- are largely disengaged from the political system. The other nine range across the ideological spectrum -- from Republican - leaning groups like the Enterprisers, to the Partisan Poor, a group anchored in the Democratic Party. By viewing the electorate through this lens, the analysis attempts to isolate the fault lines within the two parties, and among the swing groups unattached to either.

THE ‘NOT SO’ LEFT Partisan Poor % of adult population: 7% Party ID: 89% Democrats, 10% independent or lean toward Democrat Defining values: Strongly believes more government is needed to help the poor; sees discrimination holding back black progress; displays a high level of militancy; big business is viewed negatively. Who they are: Very poor; nearly three-fourths have never been to college; 41% are non-white; a heavily blue-collar group. ***

New Dealers % of adult population: 7% Party ID: 82% Democrats; 12% lean Democrat Defining values: Strongly conservative views on race and social welfare programs; strong in religious beliefs, moderate in social tolerance; holds some faith in government as a force for good but distrusts politicians and big business. Who they are: The oldest group in the new electorate; high concentrations of labor union members; three-quarters have no college training. ***

New Democrats % of adult population: 10% Party ID: 62% Democrat;19% independent, lean Democrat Defining values: More favorable toward business than other Democratic groups and differ with party liberals on race; their pro-government and environmentalist views, however, are at home in the party; religious but not intolerant. Who they are: Mostly female (60%); includes somewhat higher proportions of racial minorities (18%) than the population at large; tend to work in health care, education and social services. ***

Seculars % of adult population: 9% Party ID: 46% Democrat; 31% independent, lean Democrat Defining values: Very low expression of religious faith; sympathetic toward minorities and immigrants; not politically alienated and moderately pro-government; distrusting of large corporations. Who they are: Mostly white (90%); primarily baby boomers and members of Generation X (76% under 50); more than a third have never married; 11% are Jewish. ***

THE DETACHED CENTER

Embittered % of adult population: 7% Party ID: 39% independent; 36% Democrat; 16% Republican Defining values: Distrust government, politicians and corporations; religious and socially intolerant; believe that discrimination is a major barrier to black progress but are not strong proponents of social welfare programs. Who they are: A low-income, very financially pressured group with low levels of education; about one-fourth are African American. ***

Bystanders % of adult population: 8% Party ID: 52% independent; 24% Democrat; 15% Republican Defining values: Despite their lack of interest in politics and public affairs, this group claims a commitment to environmentalism. Who they are: Extremely young (51% under 30) and somewhat more female (58%),with high concentrations of Latinos (11%); one of the poorest-educated and financially pressured groups. ***

New Economy Independents % of adult population: 18% Party ID: 52% independent; 27% Democrat; 17% Republican Defining values: Not believers in government regulation but strongly environmentalist; pro-social welfare but not especially sympathetic to the troubles of blacks; somewhat xenophobic but with a very low militancy level. Who they are: Mostly female, young to middle-age and employed; 4 in 10 are working women; 11% are working mothers. ***

THE DIVIDED RIGHT

Libertarians % of adult population: 4% Party ID: 54% Republicans; 28% independent, lean Republican Defining values: Pro-business, anti-government and anti-social welfare but highly tolerant and moderately environmentalist; score very low on religious faith and have a cynical view of politicians. Who they are: Predominantly white (97%) and male (73%); highly educated, affluent and financially secure; one of the groups least likely to have children under 18. ***

Moralists % of adult population: 18% Party ID: 65% Republican; 27% independent, lean Republican Defining values: Religious, socially intolerant and opposed to social welfare; militaristic and xenophobic; critical of big business as well as big government. Who they are: Predominantly white (95%) and middle-age and married (66%); 4 in 10 are white evangelical Protestants; average income and educational levels. ***

Enterprisers % of adult population: 10% Party ID: 74% Republican; 21% independent, lean Republican Defining values: Anti-government, pro-business and anti-social welfare, with a strong faith in America; not environmentalist; moderate to low in social tolerance. Who they are: Predominantly white (97%), male (60%) and middle-age; college educated (63%) and relatively affluent. Source: Times Mirror Center for the People & the Press

The Anti-Politics, Anti-Government Mood

By some measures the American public is feeling more negative toward government and further alienated politically than even two yeas ago. Such alienation has boosted what the Times Mirror survey termed “outsiderism,” the belief that new leaders are better than old ones.

The government is really run for the benefit of all the people

1987 1988 1990 1992 1994 Agree 57% 53% 525 44% 42% Disagree 39% 44% 45% 54% 57% Don’t know 4% 3% 3% 2% 1%

***

Most elected officials care what people like me think

1987 1988 1990 1992 1994 Agree 47% 47% 445 36% 33% Disagree 49% 51% 53% 62% 55% Don’t know 4% 2% 3% 2% 15

***

BUREAUCRACY

When something is run by the government, it is usually inefficient and wasteful

1987 1988 1990 1992 1994 Agree 63% 66% 67% 70% 69% Disagree 31% 29% 29% 28% 30% Don’t know 6% 5% 4% 2% 15

***

The federal government controls too much of our daily lives

1987 1988 1990 1992 1994 Agree 58% 61% 62% 64% 69% Disagree 37% 36% 34% 34% 30% Don’t know 5% 3% 4% 2% 1%

***

Government regulation of business usually does more harm than good

1987 1988 1990 1992 1994 Agree 55% 57% 58% 61% 63% Disagree 34% 35% 33% 33% 33% Don’t know 11% 8% 9% 6% 4%

Source: The Times Mirror Center for the People & the Press surveyed 4,809 adults 18 or older from July 12 to 27, and re-interviewed 1,500 of them from Sept. 9 to 11. It has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.