Poll Finds Big Edge for GOP in Fall Elections

WASHINGTON —  For the first time in decades, a substantial majority of registered voters say they are inclined to vote for a Republican for Congress in the fall elections, according to a Times Mirror survey--an inclination that, if it persists for the next four weeks, would lead to large GOP gains.

The survey, conducted by the Times Mirror Center for the People & the Press, found 52% of registered voters saying that they intend to vote Republican while only 40% said they would vote for a Democratic candidate. Last month, the survey found the Republicans leading by only a 2-percentage-point margin, 48% to 46%. The current 12-point margin is the largest for the GOP since the spring of 1954, when a Gallup poll found the GOP leading the Democrats, 53% to 47%.

The 1954 lead eventually faded, and Democrats actually won a substantial majority of the overall vote cast that year. With Congress out of session and Democratic incumbents back home campaigning, party strategists hope that history will repeat itself.

Polls of party inclination are often a good barometer of the total number of seats likely to change hands in an election.

Driving the Democratic numbers down is President Clinton’s continued unpopularity. Those polled disapprove of his performance in office by a 38%-47% margin with 15% uncertain. That uncertainty level is about as close to good news for Democrats as the poll contains. A month ago, the poll showed disapproval by 41% to 52% with 7% unsure, indicating that some Americans who had turned against Clinton may be re-evaluating but are not yet prepared to endorse his work.

Republicans lead among both men and women, although their margin is considerably larger, 57% to 38%, among male voters than among women, 48% to 42%. Blacks continue to favor the Democrats, 71% to 10%, and Latinos do so by 55% to 38%. But white voters have turned to the Republicans, 56% to 38%, the poll found.

On another subject, the poll found Americans rapidly tiring of coverage of the O.J. Simpson murder trial. In June, after Simpson’s arrest, 48% of those polled said they were following the case “very closely.” In September, that number had dropped to 30%. It has now dropped again, to 25%.

The Times Mirror Survey was conducted among 1,513 adults, including 560 registered voters, between Oct. 6 and Oct. 9. Results for the entire survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points, while results for the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus five points.

Times Mirror Co. is the owner of the Los Angeles Times and other newspaper, broadcasting and publishing enterprises.