CALIFORNIA ELECTIONS : THE TIMES POLL : Lungren, Davis Lead; Ballot Job Titles May Be Key to Other Races

SACRAMENTO —  Republican Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, who is seeking another term, and Democrat Gray Davis, who is running for lieutenant governor, continue to maintain commanding leads in their election drives, according to a Los Angeles Times Poll.

But five other so-called down ballot contests are much more in doubt, with evidence that the outcome of the Nov. 8 election could hinge largely on the way hopefuls describe themselves on the ballot, the poll results show.

Democrats especially seem to register more support when likely voters are told what their job titles are as listed on the ballot.

For example, in the low-key contest for secretary of state, likely voters choosing between Democrat Tony Miller, who has never sought elective office, and Republican candidate Bill Jones of Fresno gave Jones a slim 37% to 32% lead.

However, when likely voters were told that Miller is identified on the ballot as “acting secretary of state” and Jones is described as “businessman, farmer, legislator,” the positions were reversed and Miller outdistanced his opponent, 44% to 31%.

“The titles do help some candidates, especially people without name recognition,” said Susan Pinkus, assistant director of The Times Poll, adding that “acting secretary of state has helped Miller.” Miller has spent the last 18 years as legal counsel and top deputy to longtime Secretary of State March Fong Eu, who stepped down in February to become ambassador to Micronesia.

“Voters continue to tend to be undecided because of low name recognition, and ballot designation may be one of the ways in assisting them to make up their minds,” Pinkus said.

A similar pattern is reflected in other races as candidates who are not household names begin to jab at one another in an onslaught of TV advertising intended to attract the attention of voters in the final days before the election. For the first time in years, incumbents are not seeking reelection in most of these statewide offices, which can serve as steppingstones to higher elective office.

The survey of 762 likely voters was conducted between Oct. 22 and Oct. 25, with the sample split roughly in half between those told of the official ballot designation and those to whom that information was not disclosed. The margin of error is 5 percentage points in either direction for each sample.

With the exception of the Davis and Lungren campaigns, the contests for these statewide offices tend to be tossups, Pinkus said.

The survey found that Lungren has built up his advantage over Assemblyman Tom Umberg (D-Garden Grove) among likely voters. Two weeks ago, the poll showed Lungren holding a 45% to 30% edge among those likely to cast ballots. In the latest poll, Lungren’s advantage was stretched to a 53% to 30% margin.

When the candidates’ titles were added, the numbers remain essentially unchanged. But the survey was completed the day Umberg began airing a dramatic TV spot in part blaming Lungren for contributing to the highly publicized slaying of 12-year-old Polly Klaas.

Davis, too, maintains a large lead against his underfinanced opponent, state Sen. Cathie Wright (R-Simi Valley), in their increasingly bitter fight to succeed Democratic Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy. The poll shows Wright still trailing by 21 percentage points. However, when likely voters are told that Davis is the state controller, his margin increases to 32 percentage points, leading Wright 58% to 26%.

In the contest to succeed Davis as controller, Republican Tom McClintock and Democrat Kathleen Connell were in a dead heat among likely voters in the last Times poll.

To distinguish himself from other candidates, McClintock, a former GOP assemblyman from Thousand Oaks, has been airing an offbeat ad with a narrator in a thick Scottish accent describing the candidate as the tightest skinflint around. Earlier in the campaign, McClintock went to court to successfully win the right to call himself “taxpayer advocate” on the ballot and in June easily won a contested primary to become the GOP standard bearer.

In the latest poll, McClintock clings to a narrow lead, 41% to 36%, among likely voters not told his ballot designation. However, when they stack up “taxpayer advocate” McClintock against Connell, described as “businesswoman, economist and educator,” likely voters put Connell ahead by a 44% to 34% margin. Another 21% haven’t made up their minds.

Ballot titles also seem to influence the survey results in the state insurance commissioner’s race to succeed outgoing John Garamendi, who lost a bid for the Democratic nomination for governor.

When voters were asked to choose between Democrat Art Torres or Republican Chuck Quackenbush, the contest is virtually even. But when Torres is described as a “California state senator” and Quackenbush a “small businessman and legislator,” Torres ekes out a narrow 6 percentage point advantage among likely voters.

Something of a parallel approach is being taken by Maureen DiMarco, a Democrat who is stumping for the nonpartisan post of state schools chief. DiMarco, too, in TV spots is billing herself as a crime fighter as she slogs it out against fellow Democrat Delaine Eastin.

But among likely voters, 60% remain undecided between Eastin and DiMarco. Among those who have made up their minds Eastin held a 21% to 18% lead.

But when DiMarco, education adviser to Gov. Pete Wilson, was described as education Cabinet secretary and Eastin as a teacher and assemblywoman, DiMarco gained a small edge of 26% to 21%, with 53% still undecided.

THE TIMES POLL: Many Races Remain Close

With less than two weeks left until Californians go to the polls to vote, most lower-profile state contests are still too close to call.

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:

CANDIDATE DESCRIBED ON WHEN ONLY WHEN NAME AND NAME BALLOT AS NAME IS READ TITLE ARE READ Gray Davis California controller 51% 58% Cathie Wright Businesswoman and 30% 26% state senator Someone else -- -- Don’t know 19% 16%

SECRETARY OF STATE:

CANDIDATE DESCRIBED ON WHEN ONLY WHEN NAME AND NAME BALLOT AS NAME IS READ TITLE ARE READ Tony Miller Acting 32% 44% secretary of state Bill Jones Farmer and 37% 31% legislator Someone else 1% 1% Don’t know 30% 24%

CONTROLLER:

CANDIDATE DESCRIBED ON WHEN ONLY WHEN NAME AND NAME BALLOT AS NAME IS READ TITLE ARE READ Kathleen Connell Businesswoman, 36% 44% economist, educator Tom McClintock Taxpayer advocate 41% 34% Someone else 1 % 1% Don’t know 22% 21%

TREASURER:

CANDIDATE DESCRIBED ON WHEN ONLY WHEN NAME AND NAME BALLOT AS NAME IS READ TITLE ARE READ Phil Angelides Businessman and 32% 40% financial manager Matt Fong Member of 47% 41% Board of Equalization Someone else -- -- Don’t know 21% 19%

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER:

CANDIDATE DESCRIBED ON WHEN ONLY WHEN NAME AND NAME BALLOT AS NAME IS READ TITLE ARE READ Art Torres State senator 39% 46% Chuck Quackenbush Small businessman 40% 40% and legislator Someone else -- 1% Don’t know 21% 13%

ATTORNEY GENERAL:

CANDIDATE DESCRIBED ON WHEN ONLY WHEN NAME AND NAME BALLOT AS NAME IS READ TITLE ARE READ Tom Umberg Assemblyman 30% 33% and prosecutor Dan Lungren Attorney general 53% 53% Someone else -- 1% Don’t know 17% 13%

PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

CANDIDATE DESCRIBED ON WHEN ONLY WHEN NAME AND NAME BALLOT AS NAME IS READ TITLE ARE READ Maureen DiMarco Education cabinet 18% 26% secretary Delaine Eastin Teacher and 21% 21% assemblywoman Someone else 1% -- Don’t know 60% 53%

Note: Dashes indicate responses of less than 0.5%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll