TIMES POLL : Clinton’s Image Hurts Him More Than His Ideas

WASHINGTON —  For months, President Clinton and many of his top aides have diagnosed their political problems in terms of failure to communicate: If only we could get our message across, they have argued, the public would think better of us.

Not necessarily, a new Times Poll suggests.

The poll, conducted Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of Clinton’s State of the Union speech Tuesday night, indicates that those who feel they know a great deal about Clinton give the President higher marks on some specific policy issues and on some general political qualities.

But for Clinton, better ratings on policy and politics do not translate into overall approval or a willingness to reelect him, the poll indicates. On those measures, the views of people who are more familiar with his message are virtually indistinguishable from those who are unfamiliar.

The reason, the poll suggests, is simple: Opposition to Clinton is not so much a matter of policy as personality. When those inclined to vote against Clinton were asked why, few cited specific policy matters, such as tax increases or gays in the military. Instead, they cited more general concerns--that Clinton breaks his promises, is too weak or lacks honesty. That result indicates severe problems for the White House because concerns about Clinton’s character will be far harder to erase than those about his stands on issues.

Clinton’s approval rating actually declined after the speech. It was 54% approve versus 40% disapprove before Tuesday night, compared to 49% approve and 44% disapprove afterward.

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In addition, a majority still do not see Clinton as a strong leader, or feel that he has clear ideas on where to lead the country. And Americans still think congressional Republicans have better ideas on how to solve the country’s problems.

Asked if Clinton has the honesty and integrity to be President, those polled said by a 57%-37% margin that he does--a majority, but down from the 68%-23% margin he achieved in December, 1993.

The poll does, however, offer at least one piece of potential good news for Clinton, albeit an ironic one: With the Republicans in charge of Congress promising major changes in longstanding government policies, much of the public seems to have developed an appreciation for gridlock.

By 47%-41%, those polled say the prospect of Clinton’s blocking some GOP initiatives “is a good thing because Congress and the President can act as a check on each other” rather than “a bad thing because they prevent either Congress or the President from getting much of their program accomplished.” Even Republicans split almost evenly on that question, 46%-43%.

Clinton, of course, centered his first two years in office on a campaign to end gridlock. His reelection, the poll suggests, could be aided by a subtle campaign for keeping it.

In addition, of course, questions of character can hurt the opposition as well. A quarter of those polled, including 20% of Republicans, say that news of House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s book deal--in which he could earn millions from a publishing company owned by media magnate Rupert Murdoch--has made them feel less favorable toward him. Another 30% said the book deal had not had any impact on how they felt about Gingrich, while 38% said they had not heard about it.

The Times Poll, supervised by John Brennan, surveyed 1,226 adults nationwide on Jan. 25 and 26. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Comparing the new poll with one conducted just before Clinton’s speech indicates that the President’s lengthy oration helped him among traditionally Democratic groups, but at the cost of hurting him among swing voters.

Before the speech, for example, women over age 65 gave Clinton an approval rating of 48%-41%. Afterward, that rating had risen to 57%-33%. Clinton’s speech contained several loud declarations of support for Medicare and Social Security. Those declarations appear to have had the effect--and probably the intent--of shoring up support among the elderly, who are a crucial voting bloc for Democrats.

On the other hand, Clinton lost ground among self-identified moderate and liberal Republicans and people who voted in 1992 for Ross Perot. Perot voters, for example, gave him a negative 41%-52% job rating before the speech. After the speech, that rating sank to 29%-56%.

Some of Clinton’s political advisers have argued the President must spend this year shoring up his support among Democrats to avoid a challenge in the primaries of the sort that bloodied Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Once that is accomplished, they say, Clinton can return to wooing the centrist voters he will need if he is to win another term. The poll results indicate the first part of that strategy may have succeeded somewhat, but that the second part will be a tall order.

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Roughly a quarter of those polled say they know at least a “good amount” about Clinton’s speech. About two-thirds say they know no more than “some.” Comparing those two groups shows that exposure to Clinton’s words does help his image to some extent.

Those who are more familiar with Clinton’s speech feel by a margin of 59%-37% that he is “working hard to bring fundamental change,” rather than “governing in a business-as-usual manner.” By contrast, those who are less familiar split almost evenly on that question, 48%-47%.

Of those who say they are more familiar with his speech, 43% say Clinton has made at least a “good amount” of progress toward streamlining government. Of those who are less familiar, only 24% give him that much credit. Those familiar with the speech were close to evenly split on whether they had a clear idea of where Clinton wants to lead the country--45% said yes, 49% no. But those who were less familiar split 35%-59% on the question.

Asked if they approve of his handling of the presidency, however, those who claim to know a great deal about the speech are indistinguishable from those who say they know little or nothing.

The poll gives little consolation to Democrats who have suggested that the Republican landslide this fall should be discounted in part because the 1994 electorate was more conservative, and more Republican, than the voters as a whole. The self-identified voters in the 1994 elections did express more conservative views than the overall group surveyed on several questions, but only marginally.

On the question of reelecting Clinton, there was no statistical difference between the responses of 1994 voters and the overall sample. Forty-eight percent of those polled say they probably or definitely will vote against Clinton next time, 37% say they would probably or definitely vote for him and 15% say they are not sure.

Asked who has better ideas, Clinton or the congressional Republicans, the Republicans got the plurality, 41%-33%. Asked if the congressional Republicans are seeking fundamental change or business as usual, 45% said change, 44% said business as usual. And asked if Clinton is a strong and decisive leader, 40% of those polled said yes, 55% said no.

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Clinton’s party fares even worse. Only 37% say they have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, while 44% are unfavorable. The Republicans, by contrast, have a 52%-32% favorable image. Only 9% of Republicans have a favorable image of Democrats, but 31% of Democrats look favorably on the GOP.

Given a list of things Clinton mentioned in his speech, a 41% plurality of those polled said the proposal they liked best was tax breaks for the middle class for education and retirement. Reform of campaign finance was chosen by only 9%. Several other proposals--smaller government, a higher minimum wage, an effort to reduce the number of teen-age pregnancies and health reform--each drew support from about a quarter of those polled. The minimum wage and health reform were more popular among Democrats while shrinking the size of government was notably more popular among Republicans.

But while 71% of those polled found something to like in Clinton’s speech, only 6% thought Clinton would be able to get many or all of his goals accomplished. Even within his own party, a plurality thought he would get little or nothing accomplished, while overall, 54% thought he would accomplish few or none or his goals.

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The Reviews on Clinton

Americans gave decidedly mixed reviews to President Clinton’s State of the Union Address. Clinton’s reelection prospects remained bleak even after the speech.

Americans Ambivalent About What He Said...

* Generally speaking, thinking about what President Clinton said in his State of the Union Address, do you approve of what he said in the speech?

Great deal / Good amount: 38% Only some / Hardly any: 41% Don’t know: 21%

...Doubt He Can Get Things Done...

* Do you think Clinton will be able to accomplish many of the goals he outlined in his State of the Union speech?

All of then: 1% Many of the goals: 5% Some of the goals: 32% Few of the goals: 50% None of them: 4% Don’t know: 8%

...And They Don’t Think His Proposals Would Help

* How much do you think the proposals Clinton made will help you and your immediate family?

A lot: 9% Some: 31% Little: 32% Not at all: 17% Don’t know: 11%

* Who do you think has the better ideas for how to solve the problems this country currently faces?

GOP: 41% Clinton: 33% Neither: 11% Don’t know: 8% Both equally: 7%

* If Clinton runs for President in 1996, will you vote for him?

Before speech (1) After speech Yes 36% 37% No 47 48 Don’t know 17 15

(1) as polled Jan. 19-22

Top reasons they would vote for him: (2 answers accepted) He’s trying/needs more time: 17% Cares about people like me: 14 He’s a Democrat: 13 He agrees with me on issues: 10 Better than Republicans: 10

Top reasons they would vote against him (2 answers accepted) Not fulfilling campaign promises: 18% Don’t trust him: 14 He’s a Democrat: 11 Not a strong leader: 9 Hasn’t done a good job: 8 *

How poll was done: The Times Poll interviewed 1,226 adults nationwide by telephone Jan. 25-26. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age and education. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which the questions are presented.