America or Iran--Russia Must Choose : Moscow summit: Selling nuclear technology to a terrorist state will cost more than it earns.
Russia’s plan to sell nuclear technology to Iran looms as the make-or-break issue at this week’s summit between President Clinton and Boris Yeltsin. If Clinton’s fabled power of persuasion fails to stop the sale, vital American interests could suffer. Yeltsin should make a choice: the Iranian contract or a cooperative relationship with the United States.
Iran has emerged as the main threat to the security of the Middle East and access to Persian Gulf oil. Iran’s rulers’ undisguised hatred for everything American is matched by their enthusiasm for terrorism. Their militant program includes a plan to acquire the means to build nuclear weapons. Since Iran’s oil reserves far exceed its energy needs, the deal with Russia is proof that Iran’s leaders are determined to see it become a nuclear power. And though Iran is a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty, that agreement has loopholes big enough for a terrorist to drive through in a truck loaded with a nuclear bomb.
While the prospect of Iranian nuclear weapons should concern the world, the United States has special reasons to be alarmed. As the only global power, the United States must be prepared to defeat Iran’s designs for hegemony in the gulf. If the day comes that Iranian aggression must be resisted, best not count on Russia (or France or Germany or Japan) for help. These countries would rather profit from trafficking with Iran in dangerous technologies that might be used against American troops. So the burden and risk are ours--and with them should go the prerogative of insisting that others limit their hazardous commerce.
Once Iran gets nuclear weapons, it may be tempted to menace its oil-rich Arab neighbors, or Israel, while the United States hesitates to intervene for fear that American forces could be exposed to nuclear attack. True, this would be reckless for Iran. But it would be no less reckless for the United States to depend on Iran to turn responsible once it has nuclear weapons. The past 15 years provide ample evidence that no nation can be less trusted with nuclear weapons than Iran.
Then why has Russia refused to abandon this transaction? Revenue and pride. The sale will produce hard currency for Russia’s struggling economy and canceling it under American pressure would wound Russia’s struggling self-respect. But these are fleeting considerations. Russian leaders would be well advised to look soberly at their country’s larger predicament, which a nuclear deal with Iran would only worsen. The Russian economy is shrinking steadily, Russian industry is a fossil of the Soviet era and Western investors are bypassing the country. America is the leader of the vibrant, integrated world economy that Russia must join to get on its feet. Pride or no pride, Russia cannot ignore the fact that the money from the Iran deal will not last long if the United States withdraws its support for International Monetary Fund loans, U.S. private investments and other Western economic lifelines. Russia is not so poor that it must sell nuclear technology to Iran, but it is far too poor to spoil its relations with the world’s leader.
Russian officials accuse the United States of a double standard in dictating to them while arranging for North Korea to get nuclear reactors. The comparison fails: Russian interests would not be threatened by North Korea nuclear weapons the way U.S. interests could be by Iranian nuclear weapons. In any case, whether or not we can persuade the Russians that canceling the Iran sale is fair, we must convince them that canceling is smart.
The task will not be easy, especially since Russian leaders have already rebuffed secretaries William J. Perry and Warren Christopher over the Iran sale. The United States will have to be prepared for the summit to be labeled a failure if Russia does not budge on this question. Yeltsin should hear that Russia cannot expect a cooperative relationship with the United States, including American support for international financing, unless the Iran nuclear deal is scrapped. It would be a mistake to coat this pill for the Russians by giving a green light to sell some but not all of what Tehran wants. Helping Iran even just a little in acquiring nuclear weapons is a direct offense against American interests.
The United States has an interest in Russian-American cooperation, but not nearly as great as Russia has. And Russia has a stake in the Iran nuclear deal, but not nearly as great as the United States has. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, U.S. relations with Russia will be in shambles. It is best that Yeltsin be warned of this. If he nevertheless goes forward with the sale, we will have learned something painful but important about Russia’s priorities. Congress and the electorate will then be ready to back the Administration for refusing to help a country that would help America’s most dangerous enemy acquire nuclear weapons.
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