Cooking the Numbers

When Nicki Anderson stopped by her neighborhood grocery a couple of weeks ago, it made the evening news.

Anderson isn’t a movie star, a pop singer or even a mass murderer. She is an administrative assistant at the Sacramento office of the American Farm Bureau Federation. And her shopping trip comprised the total of the California entry in the lobbying group’s highly touted annual survey of the price of Thanksgiving dinner.

Nobody checked supermarkets in Los Angeles, San Diego or San Francisco. Nor were national prices checked in New York City. In fact, the closest that the surveyors came to a major urban center was suburban Chicago.

“I don’t think we’re trying to purport that this is a statistically significant sample,” says Rick Bush, assistant director of news services for the AFBF. “This is more a snapshot of what prices have been and, in and of itself, it’s accurate. Every year we use volunteers in all the same communities.”

Yet the bureau presents its hazy snapshot in great detail.

“The average cost of this year’s traditional family holiday meal for 10 ... will be $29.64,” claims this year’s press release. “That cost is $1.24 more than last year’s $28.40.”

And then they get more specific. The cost of a 16-pound turkey, the bureau reports, is $12.68, up 67 cents from last year. A 12-ounce package of brown-and-serve rolls is $1.24, up 15 cents. A half-pint carton of whipping cream is 74 cents, up 3 cents.

Or so they say. But as our informal survey of Southland grocery stores shows, it’s dangerous to make those assumptions based on prices at one market.

We visited three different supermarkets last weekend using the same shopping list as the American Farm Bureau and found that prices varied wildly.

A package of nine-inch frozen pie shells could be as cheap as 99 cents or as high as $1.89--almost double. Yams ranged from 25 cents to 69 cents a pound. Even something as basic as yellow onions varied from 33 cents to 79 cents a pound, a difference of 140%.

Interestingly, as great as the price swings were on individual items, the three tape totals came within $1.30 of each other--ranging from $36.70 to $38.05. And two of the markets were only three cents apart.

That is an average of almost $4 more than the Sacramento--and, hence, the state--total. The biggest price differences were in a bag of potatoes ($1.19 in Sacramento against an average of $1.55 here), a gallon of milk ($2.45 there versus $3.35 here) and coffee ($5.49 for 26 ounces in Sacramento compared to $6.58 here).

Yet, says Bush, arguing over nickels and dimes is pointless compared to the overall message. “It’s not so important whether the overall cost is $35 or even $40,” he says. “What’s important is that we should be thankful for the food that we have at a reasonable price.”

“Thanksgiving is a time to reflect on the bounty made possible by America’s farmers,” says AFBF President Dean Kleckner. “Despite battles with the elements, unpredictable markets and burdensome government regulations, farmers still are able to produce and deliver the world’s most affordable, highest-quality food and fiber.”