AUTOS : Big Three See Moderate to Flat Growth

Chief economists for the Big Three auto makers predicted Tuesday that U.S. vehicle sales will be flat or rise modestly in 1996, as an expected cut in interest rates will be tempered by the cautious mood of debt-burdened buyers.

“1996 is likely to be a good year for the auto industry but not a spectacular year,” said Mustafa Mohatarem, chief economist at General Motors Corp., the nation’s largest auto maker.

Mohatarem , speaking at the Society of Automotive Analysts annual outlook conference, forecast overall U.S. vehicle sales at 15.3 million this year, compared with an expected 15.1 million for 1995.

The Big Three’s more moderate outlook this year reflects a cautious feeling among consumers, who are focused on their personal debts and are spending carefully on big-ticket items, the economists said.

“Consumers, I think, are generally cautious,” said Van Bussmann, chief economist at Chrysler Corp., which is predicting industry sales of 15.1 million units.

Tighter fiscal policy by Western European countries and generally improving economic conditions will help new-vehicle sales there, said Martin Zimmerman, top economist at Ford Motor Co.