LOOKING FOR A HALL PASS : Hall of Fame Voters May Be Too Selective for Those on Current Ballot, Including Niekro, Sutton, Santo and Garvey

For Phil Niekro, the Hall of Fame election process has been as baffling as the knuckleball he threw in registering 318 major league victories.

“I think a lot of people would agree with me that there doesn’t seem to be any precedents, boundaries or rules,” Niekro said. “A lot of people are in who I don’t think should be, and a lot of people aren’t in who I think should be.

“It gets confusing at times, to say the least. There should be some kind of guidelines.”

The 1996 election results will be announced Monday.

Niekro, who won more games than all but 10 of the 53 pitchers in the Hall, was on the ballot for the fourth time, having failed to get the required 75% of votes cast.

“Everyone gets high this time of year,” he said. “Then you get the wrong [phone] call and it’s a hard fall. I’ve been trying not to think about it.”

Don Sutton, the former Dodger and Angel pitcher whose 324 victories are also more than 43 of the 53 pitchers in the Hall, is on a scuba diving trip intended to take his mind off the process. Mystified, perhaps, by seemingly low vote totals in his first two years on the ballot, Sutton has refused to talk about the Hall or his candidacy.

Only one player has been elected in each of the last three years--Reggie Jackson, Steve Carlton and Mike Schmidt.

There was nobody of that caliber on the 1996 ballot.

Whether that will prove beneficial to Niekro and Sutton, the only 300-game winners not in the Hall, or to another group of eligible players--Tony Perez, Jim Rice, Ron Santo, Luis Tiant and Steve Garvey, among them--whose statistics are superior or comparable to many of the players already elected at their positions is uncertain.

Joe DiMaggio was not elected until his third year on the ballot, but Willie Stargell was elected on his first, as were 25 others, among them Jackson, Carlton and Schmidt.

It is clearly an inconsistent and inexact process, but it has always been staunchly defended by the electorate, generally 430 to 470 of the 10-year members of the Baseball Writers Assn. of America.

Peter Schmuck, the national baseball writer for the Baltimore Sun, said the writers have proven to be “responsible gatekeepers.”

Schmuck added, “When you have an electorate of about 470 people that spans a writer who covered Walter Johnson [former Washington Post columnist Shirley Povich] to some guys who may have seen only a year or two of Reggie Jackson, it’s a pretty large cross-section of old, new and in between. And the new breed, for the most part, has been far more conscientious because there’s much more of an emphasis now on statistics.

“I don’t remember any controversies stemming from those players we voted in, only those we didn’t, but the veterans’ committee [which represents a second avenue for eligible players] is a safeguard in that regard.”

Even Murray Chass, the New York Times’ national baseball writer who campaigned a few years ago to have the BBWAA give up its partnership with the Hall, defends the diligence the writers bring to the task.

The New York Times does not allow its reporters to vote for awards, believing they should cover the news and not make it.

Chass supports that policy and has argued that the BBWAA should adopt it in relationship to a private entity such as the Hall.

“I admit to holding contradictory views because I don’t think any group would do a better or more diligent job than the writers have,” he said. “I don’t say it’s been a perfect job, but when you have approximately 450 voters, the handful who may exhibit bias because a certain player may or may not have shaken hands with them are overcome by the overall numbers.

“The system works,” Chass said. “I don’t think anybody has missed who clearly deserves to be in.

“I mean, if there have been mistakes, I would rather err on the side of too few being in than too many. It’s such a unique honor that it should be passed out sparingly.”

Sparingly?

“When guys with 300 wins don’t get in, something’s wrong,” said Garvey, the former Dodger first baseman in his fourth year on the ballot.

“When you have only one guy being inducted every year, the ceremony loses some of the glamour, compared to the football and basketball inductions.

“I think the writers are being too tough, too stringent. They seem to be focusing on only one player at the expense of others, but the criteria is purely subjective, depending on the individual. If you asked me if someone else should be voting I’d say no, the writers are doing a great job.

“I mean, if they elect a guy like Carlton, who never communicated with the press, on the first ballot, then I think they’re doing a pretty good job of being [objective].”

Said Santo, the former Chicago Cub third baseman, “I’m not against the writers voting, but I wonder sometimes about the basis for their votes.”

The rules governing both the election process and veterans’ committee have changed periodically, but there are no specified criteria or automatic admittance for 300 victories or 3,000 hits or 500 home runs--and there shouldn’t be, said Jack Lang, a longtime BBWAA official and former reporter.

“Dave Kingman hit about 450 [442] home runs,” Lang said. “If 500 was automatic, he might have played another two or three years. Is Dave Kingman a Hall of Fame player?”

Kingman became eligible for the ballot in 1992 and received three votes, falling far short of the 5% required to stay on the ballot.

A player becomes eligible for the ballot five years after he retires. A BBWAA screening committee reviews the credentials of the eligible players and decides which go on the ballot. There were 35 players on the 1996 ballot, including 13 for the first time. Voters can vote for as many as 10 players a year, and a player can remain on the ballot for 15 years, providing he continues to get 5% of the votes.

Any player who received 60% or more of the votes in any year he was on the ballot but failed to get the 75% required for election can be considered by the 18-member veterans’ committee five years after his ballot eligibility has expired. The 60% rule applies only to players who played after 1945. The veterans’ committee is made up of former club officials, writers and players. A player must receive 75% of the committee’s votes to be elected to the Hall.

There are 11 managers, six umpires and 21 club executives and baseball pioneers in the Hall, all selected by the veterans’ committee.

Players elected by the committee in recent years include Phil Rizzuto, Hal Newhouser, Richie Ashburn and Tony Lazzeri.

Writers have sometimes questioned committee choices--particularly in the early years of the Hall when some of those choices smacked of cronyism--but the BBWAA vote is often difficult to decipher as well.

Bob Lemon, the former Cleveland Indian pitcher, received 12% of the vote in 1964, his first year of eligibility, and only 7% in 1965. His statistics didn’t change, but he was elected with 79% of the vote in 1976.

Jim Bunning, a winner of 100 or more games in both the American and National leagues, kept closing in on 75% until he was seven votes shy at 317 in 1988, but he lost 34 votes the next year and 26 more the year after that and now must depend on the veterans’ committee.

Don Drysdale, with 209 victories, is in. Sutton, with 324, is not.

Consider Santo, a five-time Gold Glove winner whose statistics are comparable or superior to the Hall’s eight third baseman, with the exception of Schmidt and, perhaps, Eddie Mathews.

Santo, however, has never received more than 37% of the vote and has only two years left on the ballot.

“Toward the end of my career, many of the writers were saying I had been a Hall of Fame-type player, but in my first year of eligibility [1980] I didn’t even get enough votes [he got only 15] to remain on the ballot,” Santo said. “I didn’t say anything at the time, but I was devastated.”

A BBWAA/Hall review committee reinstated Santo on the ballot in 1985, but he believes many writers who had seen him play retired in those four years he was off, costing him support. The implication is that the ongoing group of voting writers may not have done their homework, investigating what kind of a player he was, statistically and otherwise.

Orlando Cepeda can empathize with Santo. Cepeda topped 60% several times but never got to 75%, despite statistics that have put other first basemen and outfielders in the Hall. His ballot eligibility expired last year and he believes some writers might have reacted negatively to the campaign that friends launched on his behalf or his Puerto Rico drug arrest, which has been followed by years of unstinting community work in the Bay Area.

Primarily, Cepeda said he thinks “too many voters hadn’t seen me play and didn’t take the time to find out what kind of player I was by asking their peers. They have a pencil in their hand and a lot of power and they have the responsibility to ask about players they haven’t seen. It’s not fair if they don’t act on that responsibility. I mean, the Hall of Fame is the pinnacle for every player. I was disappointed.”

Like Garvey, Santo and others, Niekro said he was mystified by the one-player-a-year pattern of the last three years, adding that he didn’t understand the philosophy of some writers in withholding their vote for a player in the first or second year of his eligibility, as if election in a later year has less meaning or prestige.

Does he think that because he threw a freak pitch--knuckler Hoyt Wilhelm is in the Hall with his 127 wins and 224 saves--or took 24 years to win 318 games has worked against him?

“I don’t know about that, but evidently 300 is not the magic number I thought it was,” Niekro said.

Statistics, of course, have never been the only criteria. Writers cite leadership, dominance, team performance and postseason dramatics as other factors. Hall of Famers Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax, for instance, won only 150 and 165 games in injury-shortened careers but were clearly the dominant pitchers of their eras.

Big seasons and singular accomplishments are also important. Milt Pappas, over a similar span, won as many games as Drysdale and lost two fewer. But he never won 25 in a season, as Drysdale did, never set a record for consecutive shutout innings, as Drysdale did, and never received much Hall consideration.

Niekro received 62% of the votes last year and Sutton got 57%.

If no one has been elected this year, it will be the seventh time, and the July induction ceremony will feature the veterans’ committee’s selection.

Whatever the results, one thing is certain: Pete Rose remains ineligible for the Hall because he is on baseball’s ineligible list for allegedly gambling on the sport. Then-Commissioner Fay Vincent forced Hall directors to adopt the ineligible rule because he didn’t trust the BBWAA to act objectively on Rose’s candidacy for the Hall.

It’s the Hall of Fame, of course and not the Hall of Saints, but Rose might as well be scuba diving with Sutton.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

SHUT OUT

Don Sutton and Phil Niekro have not been elected to the Hall of Fame despite having superior or similar numbers to pitchers already enshrined. Here is a team of players who have not been voted in compared to players who are there, with the Hall of Famer listed first:

PITCHER: CATFISH HUNTER vs. LUIS TIANT *--*

Player W-L IP H BB SO ERA Hunter 224-166 3449 2958 954 2012 3.26 Tiant 229-172 3486 3075 1104 2416 3.30

*--*

Hunter pitched for several world champions while Tiant is remembered for having a funny pitching delivery, but their careers are similar and if Tiant pitched for the A’s and Yankees, they still would have won all those championships.

PITCHER: GAYLORD PERRY vs. DON SUTTON *--*

Player W-L IP H BB SO ERA Perry 314-265 5350 4938 1379 3534 3.11 Sutton 324-256 5282 4692 1343 3574 3.26 Phil Niekro 318-274 5404 5044 1809 3342 3.35

*--*

Sutton is hurt because he never had one spectacular season. All he did is win 15 games year after year after year after year.

FIRST BASE: JIM BOTTOMLEY vs. ORLANDO CEPEDA *--*

Player AB R H HR RBI AVG Bottomley 7471 1177 2313 219 1422 .310 Cepeda 7927 1131 2351 379 1365 .297

*--*

Bottomley hit .300 in an era where .300 was a low average.

SECOND BASE: JOHNNY EVERS vs. NELLIE FOX *--*

Player AB H HR RBI AVG Fielding Fox 9232 2663 35 790 .288 .984 Evers 6137 1659 12 538 .270 .955

*--*

No question here. Fox is regarded as one of the best fielders of all-time and was a prototype No. 2 hitter. Evers had a nice poem written about him.

SHORTSTOP: JOE TINKER vs. MAURY WILLS *--*

Player AB H SB RBI AVG Fielding Tinker 6434 1687 94 782 .262 .938 Wills 7588 2134 586 458 .281 .963

*--*

Wills revolutionized the game by re-introducing the stolen base. Tinker was a mediocre hitter.

THIRD BASE: JIMMY COLLINS vs. KEN BOYER *--*

Player AB R H HR RBI AVG Collins 6796 1055 2000 65 983 .294 Boyer 7455 1104 2143 282 1141 .287

*--*

Boyer won five gold gloves, had more power, scored more runs and drove in more. ANother good choice is Ron Santo.

CATCHER: RICK FERRELL vs. TED SIMMONS *--*

Player AB R H HR RBI AVG Ferrell 6028 687 1692 28 734 .281 Simmons 8680 1074 2472 248 1389 .285

*--*

Simmons has the most hits of any eligible catcher not in the Hall of Fame, and has better numbers, defensively as well, of several who are already there.

OUTFIELD: BILLY WILLIAMS vs. JIM RICE *--*

Player AB R H HR RBI AVG Williams 9350 1410 2711 426 1475 .290 Rice 8225 1249 2452 382 1451 .298

*--*

Williams had a longer career, but Rice’s numbers are similar over the same number of at-bats and he was one of the most feared sluggers in baseball for a five year period.

OUTFIELD: HARRY HOOPER vs. VADA PINSON *--*

Player AB R H HR RBI AVG Hooper 8785 1429 2466 75 817 .281 Pinson 9645 1366 2757 256 1170 .286

*--*

Pinson’s power numbers are superior and he stole 305 bases (Hooper stole 375).

OUTFIELD: HACK WILSON vs. ROGER MARIS *--*

Player AB R H HR RBI AVG Wilson 4760 884 1461 244 1062 .307 Maris 5101 826 1325 275 851 .280

*--*

Wilson had one of the shortest careers of any Hall of Famer, played during the live-ball era, and is bolstered by his record 190-RBI season in 1930. Maris played part of his career in a dead-ball era and hit a record 61 home runs in 1961.

* Research by HOUSTON MITCHELL / Los Angeles Times