A New Man Brings Hope for Guatemala : Alvaro Arzu must deal with rightist opposition and a wave of criminal violence

Guatemala inaugurates a new president today, a moderate, and his country should breathe a little easier. Alvaro Arzu, 49, a free-market businessman, was elected to a four-year term over Alfonso Portillo, a front man for former dictator Efrain Rios Montt.

To start off, the new president has two big tasks and he has pledged to deal with them. He must reform an economy shattered by war and corruption and embrace and push to a conclusion the peace talks meant to put an end to the civil war that has ravaged the country since 1960.

Before winning the presidency, Arzu was the mayor of Guatemala City and before that he was the country’s foreign minister. Both experiences should help him run the obstacle course of Guatemalan politics.

First of all, he must deal with a strong, rightist opposition. The voters did not give him much room to maneuver, with only 31,900 more votes than his opponent in the second and final round of the election. The Guatemalan Republican Front won 49% of the total vote and defeated Arzu in 18 of the country’s 22 provinces. His edge came in a sweep of the capital. Overall, only 37% of the electorate voted.

Perhaps more relevant than the vote itself will be the shadow of Rios Montt, who is barred from seeking the presidency because of his role in a 1982 coup d’ etat. Gen. Rios Montt is a radical rightist, a fundamentalist Protestant who believes in “iron fist” policies. His was one of the most violent governments in the history of this small country, which has seen more than its share of violence. Thousands of peasants have been massacred on the mere suspicion that they had aided left-wing guerrillas fighting for rural land rights. And the hand of the U.S. government has often been seen on the side of the rightists.

Another problem for Arzu is the recent wave of criminal violence--robberies, kidnappings for ransom and assassinations. With a vote as close as this one, the crime rate can determine the fate of a presidency. Urban voters want security and have turned to rightists before. The capital’s vote for the moderate Arzu put him in office.

How he handles security is Issue No. 1 for the new president. This will force Arzu to implement tough policies, and any show of weakness will give the rightists and the army a chance to rebound. Accustomed to unbridled power under decades of rightist governments, the highly independent army will be watching the new president. If calm is achieved, some generals could be out of a job, a painful thought after so long in the saddle.

“We convinced 680,000 Guatemalans to believe in us,” Arzu said after the vote was in, “and through our hard work we will convince the rest.” Starting today he will get his chance.