Full Season Plus Bad Pitching Might Equal 60

When Sparky Anderson, who managed the Detroit Tigers for 16 seasons before this one, makes his debut as a Prime Sports analyst for Monday night’s game between the Angels and Tigers at Anaheim Stadium, he is certain to be asked about the fast start of his former first baseman.

What Anderson will say is that the lumbering Cecil Fielder, who leads the majors with nine home runs and 21 runs batted in, has never been a fast starter in cold weather and “this has vaulted him in position to reach 50 again. There’s no telling now.”

Sixty, perhaps?

“I won’t be surprised at anything guys like Cecil, Albert Belle and Ken Griffey do in a full season with the smaller parks and bad pitching,” Anderson said, warming up for his debut.

Bad pitching?

Several factors seem to have contributed to the offensive onslaught of the ‘90s.

Livelier baseballs? Perhaps.

Smaller parks, bigger and stronger athletes, a tighter strike zone? Definitely.

Diluted pitching in an era of expansion? No question.

“We’ve seen this coming for five years or more,” Anderson said. “There just isn’t enough pitching.

“You got guys hanging around, going from team to team, who should have disappeared a long time ago. Except maybe for Atlanta and the Dodgers, nobody has more than a couple of quality starters.

“That’s why those teams should dominate over 162 games. It’s only a matter of time.”

How to measure the ineffective pitching?

Consider that 21 of the 28 teams, concerned that they wouldn’t have enough, opened the season with more than the usual 10 pitchers, and that a comparatively weak array of opening-day pitchers included Felipe Lira (9-13) of Detroit and Carlos Reyes (4-9) of Oakland.

Consider that the American League’s 4.80 and 4.71 earned-run averages of the last two seasons were the highest in consecutive seasons and that the National League’s, without the designated hitter, were 4.04, 4.21 and 4.19 for the last three seasons, the highest in that league for a three-year period.

Consider that Colorado’s 4.97 ERA was the highest in history for a playoff qualifier and that four of the six highest ERAs for playoff teams were posted last year by Colorado and Boston, 4.39; Seattle, 4.50, and the Yankees, 4.56.

What to look for in ‘96? A repeat of ‘94, when Griffey, Frank Thomas and Matt Williams were on pace to hit 60 home runs before the strike began.

Through 169 games, there had been 371 homers hit, compared to 385 through 170 games in 1994 and 354 through 169 games in 1987, when a record 4,458 were hit.

The average game in 1996 has been producing 10.1 runs, and in 40 of the first 169, or almost 25%, at least one of the teams scored 10 runs or more.