NEWS ANALYSIS : GOP Leaders Trying to Put Brakes on Political Tailspin

WASHINGTON —  A deep anxiety is spreading through the ranks of Republicans in Washington as GOP members of Congress, party elders and campaign leaders try frantically to figure out how to free their agenda--and themselves--from a deep rut.

They are coming up with some answers. But at least some of the answers contradict each other, and no consensus has emerged. As a result, the cohesion and trust in their top leadership, including Republican presidential candidate Sen. Bob Dole, is eroding.

“There are a lot of members in a state of panic here,” said freshman Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) “They’re just all worked up about everything.”

For Dole, the growing disunity poses two threats: It tarnishes the image of leadership that he has made central to his presidential bid and it also detracts from whatever message he may try to convey to voters.

House Republicans already are striking out on their own to help themselves in the coming elections. Many are worried that the unified GOP message, which helped them sweep the elections in 1994 and mount an ambitious program in Congress, might be gone for good.

In one stormy meeting after another last week, GOP leaders were pilloried first by GOP moderates for blocking a vote on the minimum wage and then by conservatives for accepting a budget deal that funded Clinton’s Goals 2000 education initiative.

“They can’t satisfy anyone around here,” Foley said. “Nobody is happy.”

Republican troops are complaining that Dole has failed thus far to articulate a vision for the party and that House Speaker Newt Gingrich has not yet resumed his position as the party’s chief strategist and spokesman.

Gingrich has handed over day-to-day operation of the House to Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas) to give himself time to develop a congressional campaign strategy, but if he has developed such a plan, it has yet to catch fire.

“The speaker was going to go underground for three months to work on strategy and vision,” said freshman Rep. Mark Edward Souder (R-Ind.) “Where is it? There’s a concern it might not be coming.”

Instead of focusing on the initiatives that are the heart and soul of the GOP revolution--such as welfare reform--Republican leaders in recent weeks have been busy responding to Democratic initiatives, like increasing the minimum wage, and grasping for political gain with new issues, like repealing the gasoline tax.

As the party has drifted, a question has emerged with growing frequency: Can Dole, the presumptive presidential nominee, direct the party back to a winning track or should the more revolutionary House Republicans chart their own course?

“We’re nervous,” Souder said. “Can we hold up the numbers battling on a district-by-district basis without an overarching vision? At some point we need a national vision that’s articulated by the nominee.”

The jitters of Republican officeholders have been exacerbated by gloomy assessments from high-profile GOP leaders:

* Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour, conceding in an interview broadcast Sunday on CNN that “Democrats today, in a snap election, would have a chance” to regain majorities in both houses of Congress. “I don’t think they would prevail, but they would have a chance.”

* Gingrich saying in a recent speech before the GOPAC political action committee that “we are going through a Republican period of being in a funk.”

* Angela “Bay” Buchanan, Patrick J. Buchanan’s campaign chairman and sister, saying Sunday on CBS that unless the Dole campaign can find a way to unify the party and woo Democrats and undecided voters, “there is no way we can win, and we’re going to lose the Congress as well if we’re not careful.”

Republicans can, in fact, take solace that election day is six long months away, and political winds may still shift.

But the grim statements of late sound especially dire to the rank-and-file Republicans because just a few months ago, when the GOP was riding high, the thought of Republicans losing either chamber appeared inconceivable.

“When you’ve gone through a whole year of trying to do the right thing and haven’t gotten any credit but are getting all the blame,” said Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), “that takes the wind out of your sails.”

Public opinion polls this year have shown Republicans were seriously wounded by their defeat at the hands of the White House in last winter’s budget battle. GOP leaders and conservative analysts contend that Republicans have a sure opportunity to retake the initiative with their proposal for the next budget year, but so far they have been struggling.

On several issues, open skirmishes have broken out among Republican leaders, between House and Senate Republicans and even within the once-monolithic House Republican conference.

One issue has been how, or even whether, to continue pushing last year’s budget balancing plan, complete with its controversial proposals to rein in the growth of Medicare. Some Republicans are wary of reviving a budget strategy that they believed was politically disastrous for the party.

Another, particularly glaring, example of intraparty discord has centered on whether to increase the minimum wage--a top goal of the president and congressional Democrats.

Gingrich found himself alone among GOP leaders when he said he might support an increase coupled with other economic initiatives. He and Armey had at least one heated exchange over their differences and no resolution has yet emerged.

Enough Republicans in the House and Senate have indicated their support for the increase that the measure likely would pass if put up for a vote. The defectors have angered more doctrinaire Republicans.

Rep. Philip M. Crane (R-Ill.), a senior House Republican, wrote an angry open letter to his colleagues accusing supporters of the minimum-wage increase of endangering the party’s hold on the majority in Congress.

“Playing ‘me too’ with the Democrats kept us in the minority for 40 years,” Crane said. “Only by unapologetically distinguishing our party’s ideas from the Democrats’ demagoguery can we keep our majority in Congress as we win the White House.”

In the Senate, a split among Republicans proved costly to Dole in April when five GOP senators joined all 47 Democrats in voting to kill a Dole proposal to add medical savings accounts to a popular health insurance reform bill.

Some Republicans also have grumbled that their effort to craft a coherent GOP message has not been well served by House leaders who scheduled votes on bills going nowhere. GOP moderates, for example, cringed at being forced to vote on the repeal of the assault weapons ban.

As the complaints have grown, so has the resolve of some lawmakers to simply go their own way in the campaign--and possibly help the party in the process. “Instead of looking for the top of the ticket to help you, you help it,” Foley said.

For example, to try to boost Dole’s image on environmental issues, Foley invited him to tour Florida’s Everglades last month. The trip drew attention to Dole’s support of a provision in the farm bill earlier this year that will bring $300 million for Everglades restoration.

Other freshmen endorsed that approach.

“I don’t want to sound politically conceited, but I think his fortunes lay a great deal more with my organization and my ability to get the vote out than vice versa,” said Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.).

But LaHood admitted that there are limits to what a member of Congress can do to help Dole.

“We need a message,” he said. “We need a vision. We need our candidate at the top to be able to persuade people he will help them live out the American dream.

“Our efforts are going to be organizational--his effort has to be the vision thing.”

Unfortunately for the GOP, however, Clinton has proven adept at stealing their thunder.

The effect could be seen clearly Tuesday morning as the press secretary for the House Appropriations Committee scrambled to deliver press releases pointing out that Clinton’s move to release oil from the nation’s petroleum reserves was actually something Congress had suggested during last week’s deal on the federal budget.

“They’re really good on spin down there,” said the press aide, Elizabeth Morra, with a hint of dismay in her voice. “Once again I’m out here on defense. One day we’ll be on offense again--maybe.”