Not an Exact Science

Once children spoke when spoken to, looked both ways before crossing the street and respected their elders, but those days ended (right after today’s adults grew up, according to them). Today’s brash kids are increasingly elbowing adults out of the way in gymnastics, tennis and now the NBA draft.

Forty-two underclassmen, including three high school players, made themselves eligible for the draft, more than doubling the old record. Last year 19 seniors were first-round picks; this spring it looks like 10 or 12.

For the second year in a row, the top five picks are expected to be underclassmen.

One of the preps, a Taj McDavid of Williamston, S.C., isn’t even considered a major college prospect by his coach but announced he’d skip school, anyway. Once the preferred prank was to wait until Mom and Dad left and take the Porsche out, like Tom Cruise in “Risky Business.” Nowadays, as soon as their parents are out of sight, kids call the NBA office and make themselves available for the draft.

The impact on the college game can be described in one word--crash!--but it’s no bargain for the NBA, stuck with younger, richer and less prepared rookies who will be free agents in three years, giving them no clue and unprecedented leverage.

“In the old days,” says an NBA coach, “if a player said he didn’t want to play for you, who cared? What choice did he have?”

In the new days, wunderkind point guard Stephon Marbury, who marched through Georgia Tech in one season, informs NBA teams he’d like to play in Minnesota with his friend, Kevin Garnett, or somewhere near his Brooklyn home.

However, Philadelphia doesn’t want him at No. 1, the Timberwolves might not be high enough at No. 5 and New Jersey and New York are farther down the line. Right now it looks like Milwaukee, which is just as cold as Minneapolis but doesn’t have any of Stephon’s best friends.

If he wanted to be close to home, why didn’t he go to St. John’s and stay longer than a year?

Yes, it’s turning out to be a learning experience, all the way around.

THE WAY IT WAS

The NBA, as Commissioner David Stern has noted, had good reason to feel protective of the college game, and that reason wasn’t altruism.

The league reaped fabulous promotional benefits from the NCAA, without competing directly against it. Of the top 20 rated basketball games, 19 were in the NCAA tournament. Many college players were nationally known and the colleges bore the expense of developing them.

In baseball, the draft is all but unnoticed as teams draft unknowns and budget huge sums for minor league affiliates to develop their prospects.

The NBA got stars for free, which was never more clear than in 1979, when Magic Johnson and Larry Bird arrived after their meeting in the NCAA finals set the all-time basketball ratings record, and revitalized the pro game.

NBA rookies then got relatively modest contracts, since they had little leverage. The liberalized labor agreements in the ‘80s made them free agents after they completed two contracts; if they wanted security, they were probably stuck for six years, the time it took Danny Manning to make good his promise to flee the Clippers.

Personnel decisions were tricky but involved only projecting how a 21-year-old collegian would fare as a 22-year-old pro.

The pros didn’t know it at the time, but it was heaven.

THE WAY IT IS

Taj McDavid, known by his nickname, Red, was a high-scoring, 6-5, 180-pound guard at Palmetto High in Williamston, S.C., a hamlet of 4,310.

That’s more than most pro teams know about him, despite his eligibility for the draft. He wasn’t on anyone’s national list of top prep players. He wasn’t even on the list of top players in South Carolina.

“I would have never given him the direction to do that,” said Bobby Tripp, who coached him for three years at Palmetto before taking a job at another school.

“I don’t think he’s a major college Division I player, unless he gets a lot stronger and a lot better defensively. I’ve seen a lot of good high school players who couldn’t play for North Carolina or Duke.

“He put a lot of faith in what Kevin Garnett did, but that’s a different situation. . . . I think he’s a good Southern Conference player.”

Unfortunately, the NBA has no Southern Conference, and McDavid is not expected to be drafted.

Everything has changed. It didn’t happen at once--the NBA’s first prep No. 1 pick was Darryl Dawkins in 1975; 10 underclassmen, led by James Worthy, were chosen in 1982’s first round--but the process has exploded in the ‘90s.

Thirteen players filed for early entry in ‘82, a record that stood until 1990.

In 1989, Danny Ferry, the second pick in the draft, refused to sign with the Clippers and went to Europe instead, panicking teams into paying untested players huge sums after that.

In 1991, Larry Johnson, the top pick, got a $21-million, seven-year contract.

In 1994, 20 underclassmen came out, as agents urged them to beat the NBA’s rookie cap. Glenn Robinson got the all-time rookie prize, a $68-million contract--after Milwaukee Buck owner Herb Kohl laughed at his demand for $100 million, offering to trade his franchise for a contract like that.

In 1995, with the rookie cap agreed to by owners and players, 19 more underclassmen--including one prep, Garnett--came out as agents adroitly switched pitches, advising potential clients to start the clock on that three years, after which they’d be free.

In 1996, with the rookie cap in place, 42 players filed, including three preps.

Rookie salaries have been pared back, but impending free agency strikes fear into general managers’ hearts. Clipper Vice President Andy Roeser notes the players who made the NBA--Johnson, Bird, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, et al.--never came up for free agency, but Joe Smith, Jerry Stackhouse, Antonio McDyess and Garnett all can.

There have always been teams wanting to trade up; now there are as many that want to trade down, as Dallas did, going from No. 6 to No. 9 for Boston’s Eric Montross.

Some want out, like the Houston Rockets, who are trying to put together a Charles Barkley deal and bailed on the first round, giving their No. 22 pick to Vancouver for two second-round selections and shipping $1 million in the contracts of Pete Chilcutt and Tim Breaux to the Grizzlies.

Young players now come with flaws their college coaches didn’t have time to work out. Rasheed Wallace fled North Carolina before Dean Smith could mellow him out. Allen Iverson split from Georgetown before John Thompson got around to the words “shot selection.” Marbury didn’t actually play much point guard for Tech’s Bobby Cremins, who switched him to shooting guard to help ease him in.

“At one time,” says the Lakers’ West, “teams that were poor teams, I think, could look forward to going into the draft and getting someone they felt could play right away and by midseason really be a force.

“Now, you look at the first three picks . . . the first pick will probably be Allen Iverson. He’s a wonderful talent, but if he were a senior, you’d be saying, ‘Boy, oh boy!’

“Marcus Camby, Stephon Marbury, Ray Allen--they’re probably going to be top picks and they’re all undergraduates. You just think what another year or two in school could have meant to them. But that doesn’t mean they’re not going to be good players.”

No it doesn’t, although everyone may go crazy in the process. If this is the ‘90s, just imagine the 21st Century, now only one collective bargaining agreement away.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Draft Facts

* When: Wednesday.

* Where: East Rutherford, N.J.

* Time: 4:30 p.m. PDT.

* TV: TNT.

* Format: Two rounds, 29 picks per round.

* First pick: Philadelphia 76ers.

* 1995 first pick: Joe Smith, Golden State Warriors.

* Local: Clippers pick seventh in first round, Lakers 24th.

Declaring for Obscurity

From 1990-95, 88 players left school early for the NBA draft. Only 43 of those played in the NBA during the 1995-96 season. A look a what has become of the other 45: *

1990

Entered 14, Drafted 7

OUT OF NBA (10)

*

Name: Kelvin Ardister

Year: Junior

School: Pensacola JC

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Played part of 1996 with Atlanta Trojans of USBL, also for Epalinges in Switzerland’s 2nd division.

*

Name: Herb Barthol

Year: Junior

School: Cleveland State

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. No longer playing.

*

Name: Gabe Estaba

Year: Junior

School: South Alabama

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Returned to Venezuela, believed to be playing there.

*

Name: David Shon Henderson

Year: Junior

School: Idaho

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Lives in Southland, last played for Magic Johnson’s team in the Fila Summer Pro League in 1995.

*

Name: Marcus Liberty

Year: Junior

School: Illinois

Denver 2nd round, 42nd pick. Played 1991-1994 seasons in NBA. In Greece with AEK.

*

Name: Ken Miller

Year: Junior

School: Loyola, Ill.

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. In Spain with Unicaja.

*

Name: Jerrod Mustaf

Year: Sophomore

School: Maryland

New York, 1st round, 17th pick. Played 1991-1994 seasons in NBA. In Spain with Festina Andorra.

*

Name: Jesse Spinner

Year: Junior

School: Grambling State

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Unknown.

*

Name: Per Stumer

Year: Junior

School: Loyola Marymount

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Returned to Sweden. Has played with Stojkan and Sedertalje.

*

Name: Ken Williams

Year: Sophomore

School: Elizabeth City State

Indiana 2nd round, 46th pick, 1991-1994 seasons in NBA. In Italy with Forli.

STILL IN NBA (4)

*

Name: Carl Herrera

Year: Junior

School: Houston

Miami, 2nd round, 30th pick.

*

Name: Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf

Year: Sophomore

School: LSU

Denver 1st round, 3rd pick.

*

Name: Dennis Scott

Year: Junior

School: Georgia Tech

Orlando, 1st round, 4th pick.

*

Name: Sean Higgins

Year: Junior

School: Michigan

San Antonio, 2nd round, 54th pick.

1991

Entered 12, Drafted 6

OUT OF NBA (6)

*

Name: Tony Farmer

Year: Junior

School: Nebraska

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. In France with Besacon.

*

Name: Jerome Harmon

Year: Junior

School: Louisville

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Played part of 1996 season with CBA’s Grand Rapids Mackers.

*

Name: Anderson Hunt

Year: Junior

School: UNLV

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. In USBL with Treasure Coast Tropics.

*

Name: Raoul Hutcheons

Year: Junior

School: Whittier

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Entered early as a joke, works as a lawyer in San Francisco.

*

Name: Ty Moseler

Year: Sophomore

School: Wisconsin Waukesha

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Unknown.

*

Name: Chancellor Nichols

Year: Junior

School: James Madison

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Played 1995 season with CBA’s Fort Wayne Fury.

STILL IN NBA (6)

*

Name: Donald Hodge

Year: Junior

School: Temple

Dallas, 2nd round, 33rd pick.

*

Name: Kenny Anderson

Year: Sophomore

School: Georgia Tech

New Jersey, 1st round, 2nd pick.

*

Name: Terrell Brandon

Year: Junior

School: Oregon

Cleveland, 1st round, 11th pick.

*

Name: Billy Owens

Year: Junior

School: Syracuse

Sacramento 1st round, 3rd pick.

*

Name: Zan Tabak

Year: Not Available

From: Yugoslavia

Houston, 2nd round, 51st pick.

*

Name: Brian Williams

Year: Junior

School: Arizona

Orlando, 1st round, 10th pick.

1992

Entered 16, Drafted 4

OUT OF NBA (12)

*

Name: Ameer Aziz

Year: Junior

School: St. Paul’s, Va.

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Living in Southland.

*

Name: John Beauford

Year: Junior

School: Southern Tech

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Unknown.

*

Name: Anthony Cade

Year: Sophomore

School: Seminole Oklahoma JC

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Unknown.

*

Name: Mark Chappell

Year: Junior

School: Iowa State

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Unknown.

*

Name: Dallas Lee Cothrum

Year: Junior

School: Austin College

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Declared as a joke, getting his doctorate in history from Texas Christian.

*

Name: Troy King

Year: Sophomore

School: Beaver County Pa. CC

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Living in Beaver, Pa.

*

Name: Benny Maxwell

Year: Junior

School: Western New Mexico

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Living in Phoenix.

*

Name: Melvin Robinson

Year: Junior

School: Arizona State

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Played 1995 with CBA’s Sioux City Skyforce, now living in St. Louis.

*

Name: Tony Scott

Year: Junior

School: Syracuse

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Played 1995 with Athletes in Action.

*

Name: Jeff Theiler

Year: Junior

School: La Verne

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Assistant coach at Cal State Hayward.

*

Name: Michael Wawrzyniak

Year: Junior

School: Cleveland State

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. No Longer playing.

*

Name: Marcus Webb

Year: Junior

School: Alabama

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Played 1995 with CBA’s Chicago Rockers.

STILL IN NBA (4)

*

Name: Jim Jackson

Year: Junior

School: Ohio State

Dallas, 1st round, 4th pick.

*

Name: Harold Miner

Year: Junior

School: USC

Cleveland, 1st round, 12th pick.

*

Name: Tracy Murray

Year: Junior

School: UCLA

San Antonio, 1st round, 18th pick.

*

Name: Shaquille O’Neal

Year: Junior

School: LSU

Orlando 1st round, 1st pick.

1993

Entered 12, Drafted 7

OUT OF NBA (6)

*

Name: Milton Bell

Year: Junior

School: Richmond

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Playing for IA in Iceland.

*

Name: Parrish Casebier

Year: Junior

School: Evansville

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Sentenced to eight years in prison for rape.

*

Name: Shawn Copes

Year: Junior

School: Lamar

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Played 1995 with Delaware Blue Bombers in Atlantic Basketball Assn.

*

Name: James Dickinson

Year: Junior

School: Seton Hall

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. School says he attended four years there.

*

Name: Etienne Preira

Year: Not Available

School: Senegal

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Unknown.

*

Name: Luther Wright

Year: Junior

School: Seton Hall

Utah, 1st round, 18th pick, 1993/94 season in NBA. In a Essex County (N.J.) psychiatric hospital.

STILL IN NBA (6)

*

Name: Shawn Bradley

Year: Sophomore

School: BYU

Philadelphia, 1st round, 2nd pick.

*

Name: Anfernee Hardaway

Year: Junior

School: Memphis State

Golden State, 1st round, 3rd pick.

*

Name: Jamal Mashburn

Year: Junior

School: Kentucky

Dallas, 1st round, 4th pick.

*

Name: James Robinson

Year: Junior

School: Alabama

Portland, 1st round, 21st pick.

*

Name: Rodney Rogers

Year: Junior

School: Wake Forest

Denver, 1st round, 9th pick.

*

Name: Chris Webber

Year: Sophomore

School: Michigan

Orlando, 1st round, 1st pick.

1994

Entered 18, Drafted 12

OUT OF NBA (7)

*

Name: Maurice Barnett

Year: Junior

School: Elizabeth City State

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Playing with Harlem Globetrotters.

*

Name: Jamie Brandon

Year: Junior

School: LSU

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Playing with Petronas in Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia.

*

Name: Rennie Clemons

Year: Junior

School: Illinois

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Living in Springfield, Ill.

*

Name: Sedric Curry

Year: Junior

School: North Dakota State

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Living in Homewood, Ill.

*

Name: Lemon Hayes

Year: Junior

School: Augusta, Ga.

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Living in Waverly, Fla.

*

Name: Cedric Moore

Year: Junior

School: Alabama

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Played 1996 with Eastern Mennonite Univ. (NAIA) in Harrisonburg, Va.

*

Name: Johnny Tyson

Year: Junior

School: Central Oklahoma

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. In CBA with Shreveport Storm.

STILL IN NBA (11)

*

Name: Yinka Dare

Year: Sophomore

School: George Washington

New Jersey, 1st round, 14th pick.

*

Name: Thomas Hamilton

Year: Freshman

School: Pittsburgh

Not Drafted.

*

Name: Juwan Howard

Year: Junior

School: Michigan

Washington, 1st round, 5th pick.

*

Name: Jason Kidd

Year: Sophomore

School: California

Dallas, 1st round, 2nd pick.

*

Name: Donyell Marshall

Year: Junior

School: Connecticut

Minnesota, 1st round, 4th pick.

*

Name: Lamond Murray

Year: Junior

School: California

Clippers, 1st round, 7th pick.

*

Name: Glenn Robinson

Year: Junior

School: Purdue

Milwaukee, 1st round, 1st pick.

*

Name: Jalen Rose

Year: Junior

School: Michigan

Denver, 1st round, 13th pick.

*

Name: Clifford Rozier

Year: Junior

School: Louisville

Golden State, 1st round, 16th pick.

*

Name: Dontonio Wingfield

Year: Freshman

School: Cincinnati

Seattle, 2nd round, 37th pick.

*

Name: Sharone Wright

Year: Junior

School: Clemson

Philadelphia, 1st round, 6th pick.

1995

Entered 16, Drafted 13

OUT OF NBA (4)

*

Name: Michael Evans

Year: Sophomore

School: Okaloosa JC

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Played 1996 with CBA’S Omaha Racers.

*

Name: Rashard Griffith

Year: Sophomore

School: Wisconsin

Milwaukee 2nd round, 38th pick, 0 Games in NBA. In Turkey with Tofas.

*

Name: Scotty Thurman

Year: Junior

School: Arkansas

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Played 1996 with CBA’s Shreveport Storm.

*

Name: Darroll Wright

Year: Junior

School: Missouri Western

Not Drafted, 0 Games in NBA. Living in Milwaukee.

STILL IN NBA (12)

*

Name: Martin Lewis

Year:

School: Seward County CC

Golden State, 2nd round, 50th pick.

*

Name: Cory Alexander

Year: Junior

School: Virginia

San Antonio, 1st round, 29th pick.

*

Name: Mario Bennett

Year: Junior

School: Arizona State

Phoenix, 1st round, 27th pick.

*

Name: Chris Carr

Year: Junior

School: Southern Illinois

Phoenix, 2nd round, 56th pick.

*

Name: Kevin Garnett

Year:

School: Farragut HS, Chicago

Minnesota, 1st round, 5th pick.

*

Name: Antonio McDyess

Year: Sophomore

School: Alabama

Clippers 1st round, 2nd pick.

*

Name: Joe Smith

Year: Sophomore

School: Maryland

Golden State, 1st round, 1st pick.

*

Name: Jerry Stackhouse

Year: Sophomore

School: North Carolina

Philadelphia, 1st round, 3rd pick.

*

Name: Gary Trent

Year: Junior

School: Ohio University

Milwaukee, 1st round, 11th pick.

*

Name: David Vaughn

Year: Junior

School: Memphis

Orlando, 1st round, 25th pick.

*

Name: Rasheed Wallace

Year: Sophomore

School: North Carolina

Washington 1st round, 4th pick.

*

Name: Corliss Williamson

Year: Junior

School: Arkansas

Sacramento, 1st round, 13th pick.

*

Compiled by Times staff writer George Dohrmann