Grammy’s Estrogen Influx

The commercial and creative strides that women have made in pop music in the ‘90s are likely to be acknowledged on Tuesday when the nominations for the 39th annual Grammy Awards are announced.

Celine Dion, Tracy Chapman and the female-fronted hip-hop trio the Fugees are expected to be nominated in both of the top categories--album and record of the year.

They’ll probably be joined in the best album finals by Toni Braxton and the all-female “Waiting to Exhale” soundtrack. This would mark the first time that female artists or female-led groups have accounted for more than three of the five nominees in this category.

Alanis Morissette, who won four Grammys last year, is likely to join Dion, Chapman and the Fugees in the best record competition, but Eric Clapton will probably deny women a clean sweep.

This is the second year that the nominations in the “big four” categories--album, record and song of the year, and best new artist--were decided by a 25-member panel of music experts. The panel met last month to review the top 20 choices of rank-and-file Grammy voters.

The National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences set up the panel system in response to criticism that the Grammys were out of touch with the most vital currents in contemporary music. The best example of the panel’s influence last year came when TLC’s streetwise “Waterfalls” made the best record finals in place of Vanessa Williams’ conventional “Colors of the Wind.”

The panel probably won’t make that much of a difference in the nominations this year. But if alternative heroes Beck or the Smashing Pumpkins manage to sneak into the best album finals, you’ll know that it did.

The eligibility period for the awards, which will be handed out Feb. 26 in New York, was Oct. 1, 1995, through last Sept. 30.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Though 623 albums were eligible for this award, only 100 or so bestsellers have a realistic chance of making the finals. All five of the likely contenders made the Top 5 on the national sales chart during the year.

The two albums that can’t miss are Dion’s “Falling Into You” and the Fugees’ “The Score.” Both represented major career milestones: For Dion, that final step up to the top tier of female pop stars; for the Fugees, a giant popular and artistic breakthrough.

The Fugees, a New Jersey trio fronted by Lauryn Hill, appeal to a wide range of Grammy sensibilities. Conservative voters respond to the group’s smooth, subtly updated version of Roberta Flack’s “Killing Me Softly With His Song,” the 1973 record of the year champ. Progressive voters relate to the way that the Fugees forged a new sound somewhere between hard-core gangsta rap and sell-out, bubble-gum rap.

Chapman made the year’s most surprising and dramatic comeback with “New Beginning,” her biggest hit since her Grammy-winning 1988 debut. Putting her in the finals would also serve to validate the academy’s choice of Chapman as best new artist that year.

Kenneth “Babyface” Edmonds, the industry’s hottest writer-producer, will probably have two albums in the running: Toni Braxton’s sophomore release, “Secrets,” and the widely admired “Waiting to Exhale” soundtrack, which features three Whitney Houston hits. A nomination for “Exhale” would allow the Grammy panel to show up the Oscars’ music branch, which snubbed the project last year.

The list of likely runners-up is headed by the Smashing Pumpkins’ “Mellon Collie and the Infinite Sadness.” The double CD is the year’s highest-profile rock album, the one best positioned to take the spot filled last year by Pearl Jam’s “Vitalogy.” The Pumpkins topped the Billboard album chart, made the cover of Rolling Stone and swept the MTV Video Music Awards.

But all of that may have been overshadowed by the heroin overdose death of the band’s tour keyboardist Jonathan Melvoin--the son of Michael Melvoin, a former chairman/president of the academy. The cloud hanging over the band may cost it a best album nomination.

Beck’s “Odelay,” The Times’ consensus best album of 1996, and the Dave Matthews Band’s “Crash” could seize the rock vote if the Pumpkins falter. Beck is also Spin magazine’s artist of the year and Rolling Stone’s pick as rock ‘n’ roll’s man of the year. Two past best album finalists--Pearl Jam and R.E.M.--could also move up, though their current albums were sales disappointments.

If the panel wants to boost the fortunes of a new artist--as it did last year with Morissette and Joan Osborne--it can rally behind No Doubt’s “Tragic Kingdom,” the Tony Rich Project’s “Words” or LeAnn Rimes’ “Blue.”

RECORD OF THE YEAR

Again, big hits dominate: Four of the five likely nominees made the Top 5 on the national pop chart, and the fifth, the Fugees’ “Killing Me Softly,” would have followed suit if it had been released as a single.

Dion’s No. 1 smash “Because You Loved Me” and Clapton’s “Change the World” both gained added exposure and prestige through their use in hit movies: “Up Close and Personal” and “Phenomenon,” respectively. Babyface produced Clapton’s single, a rare rock-R&B; collaboration that the panel will want to encourage.

“Killing Me Softly” has the same decades-spanning appeal as Coolio’s “Gangsta’s Paradise,” a rap update of an old Stevie Wonder song that made the finals last year. The Fugees will owe their nomination to a rule change: This is the first year that non-singles have been eligible in this category.

Chapman’s “Give Me One Reason” and Morissette’s “Ironic” will probably round out the field. Nominating “Ironic” would allow the panel to remind people of the Grammys’ role in Morissette’s success. The rookie’s Grammy sweep last year pushed her “Jagged Little Pill” album back to No. 1.

A host of other singles trail these front-runners.

Braxton’s lush ballad “Un-Break My Heart” was No. 1 during the voting period, but it may suffer by comparison to Dion’s hit. Both were written by Diane Warren and produced by Grammy favorite David Foster. Also, “Un-Break” must compete with another chart-topping Braxton entry, “You’re Makin’ Me High.”

The Tony Rich Project’s old-school R&B; ballad “Nobody Knows” will be a strong contender, though the panel may have docked it a few points for sounding so much like Babyface. Two other singles by new acts are also in the running: Jewel’s “Who Will Save Your Soul” and Dishwalla’s “Counting Blue Cars.”

Bone Thugs-N-Harmony’s “Tha Crossroads,” a No. 1 hit on both the pop and rap charts, will probably fall short. Only two rap hits have been nominated in this category, and both were reworkings of familiar oldies.

Three other singles are longshots: Houston’s “Exhale (Shoop Shoop),” Bruce Springsteen’s “Dead Man Walking” and Oasis’ “Wonderwall.”

SONG OF THE YEAR

Three of the likely best record finalists will probably also show up in the songwriters’ category: Warren’s “Because You Loved Me,” “Give Me One Reason” (Chapman) and “Change the World” (Gordon Kennedy-Wayne Kirkpatrick-Tommy Sims).

“Ironic” and “Killing Me Softly,” which would have probably joined them, ran afoul of eligibility requirements. The former appeared on an album that won a Grammy; the latter had achieved prominence prior to last year. That frees up two spots for “Nobody Knows” (D. DuBose-Joe Rich) and “God Give Me Strength,” a Burt Bacharach-Elvis Costello collaboration from the movie “Grace of My Heart.” Costello and Bacharach’s recording of the song hasn’t become a hit, which makes it a dark-horse candidate. But many voters were probably attracted to the cross-generational aspect and will want to toast the latest resurgence by Bacharach, who was first nominated in this category 33 years ago with “Wives and Lovers.”

The ubiquitous Babyface has several songs in the running, including “Exhale (Shoop Shoop)” and “You’re Makin’ Me High.” They’ll probably cancel each other out.

Other possibilities include Warren’s “Un-Break My Heart,” “Dead Man Walking” (Springsteen), “Blue” (Bill Mack), “Who Will Save Your Soul” (Jewel Kilcher) and “Insensitive” (Ann Loree).

BEST NEW ARTIST

Being solid contenders in the best record race makes the Tony Rich Project, Jewel and Dishwalla near-locks here.

No Doubt, an Orange County group whose music blends rock, pop and dance currents, also has a good chance at a nomination. The band’s year-old “Tragic Kingdom” album finally made No. 1 the week the panel convened.

Rimes, a 14-year-old ringer for Patsy Cline, is also strong. “Blue” has topped the country album chart, off and on, since July.

Also vying for a spot on the ballot: Deana Carter, Garbage, Donna Lewis, Sublime and more than 400 other newcomers.

OTHER CATEGORIES

Nominations in most of the other 85 categories were decided the old-fashioned way--by the vote of the academy’s 9,000 members, who are mostly artists, songwriters, producers and others working in the creative and technical ends of the music business. They have a long history of favoring well-crafted, mainstream bestsellers.

Here’s how the fields are likely to shape up in six key categories. In each case, the projected field of five nominees is followed by a few alternate choices.

Best Pop Album: Look for Braxton, Chapman and Dion to square off against Sting’s “Mercury Falling” and Everything but the Girl’s “Walking Wounded.” Alternates: Hootie & the Blowfish’s “Fairweather Johnson,” the Cranberries’ “To the Faithful Departed.”

Best Rock Album: The Dave Matthews Band and No Doubt are odds-on favorites to vie with Melissa Etheridge’s “Your Little Secret,” Metallica’s “Load” and Pearl Jam’s “No Code.” Alternates: Neil Young with Crazy Horse’s “Broken Arrow,” Sheryl Crow’s “Sheryl Crow.”

Best Alternative Music Performance: Beck and the Pumpkins will likely face Tori Amos’ “Boys for Pele,” Rage Against the Machine’s “Evil Empire” and R.E.M.’s “New Adventures in Hi-Fi.” Alternates: the Butthole Surfers’ “Electriclarryland,” Nirvana’s “From the Muddy Banks of the Wishkah.”

Best R&B; Album: The Tony Rich Project is the one sure thing in a wide-open race. Other contenders: R. Kelly’s “R. Kelly,” Curtis Mayfield’s “New World Order,” Me’Shell Ndegeocello’s “Peace Beyond Passion” and New Edition’s “Home Again.” Alternates: Keith Sweat’s “Keith Sweat,” the Isley Brothers’ “Mission to Please,” Phyllis Hyman’s posthumous “I Refuse to Be Lonely.”

Best Rap Album: The Fugees lead the pack, followed by Coolio’s “Gangsta’s Paradise,” LL Cool J’s “Mr. Smith,” Nas’ “It Was Written” and 2Pac’s “All Eyez on Me.” Alternates: A Tribe Called Quest’s “Beats, Rhymes and Life,” Busta Rhymes’ “The Coming.”

Best Country Album: It’s Rimes against Brooks & Dunn’s “Borderline,” Vince Gill’s “High Lonesome Sound,” Patty Loveless’ “The Trouble With the Truth” and George Strait’s “Blue Clear Sky.” Alternates: Lyle Lovett’s “The Road to Ensenada,” Dwight Yoakam’s “Gone,” Trisha Yearwood’s “Everybody Knows.”