Whither Goest ‘97? Balkans Open Up, Europe Crowded

Dubrovnik? Zagreb? Belgrade? Cities that for the past few years have been making headlines because of unrest are suddenly appearing on tourist itineraries. And the rush to reopen the troubled Balkan region to tourism is only one of many big changes--some good, some not so good--awaiting travelers in the upcoming year.

The U.S. economy is strong, unemployment is low and air fares remain a bargain, all important factors that are expected to stimulate travel in 1997. For example, Europe, always a popular destination for Americans, is expecting as many as 9.5 million transatlantic visitors this year, a half-million increase over 1996, according to Neil Martin, spokesman for the European Travel Commission. Curiously, tourism officials are urging Americans to see the Old World now before the numbers are even greater. By the year 2000, as many as 12 million Americans may be heading for Europe annually.

On the plus side, travelers will continue to find big bargains in cruises. At least seven new ships are entering the cruise fleet in the months ahead, according to Bernadette Suski-Harding, spokeswoman for the Cruise Lines International Assn., and the number of cabins is expected to exceed the demand for them, keeping rates down. Meanwhile, as the United States did years ago, Europe is moving toward deregulation of its airline industry, and the cost of flights between many European cities should continue to drop. In addition, more last-minute bargains in domestic air fares, offbeat trips and hotel rooms will be popping up on the Internet this year.

On the down side, travelers may find it increasingly hard to book hotel rooms at the last minute, particularly in convention and popular vacation cities, because the supply of rooms and the demand for them currently are balanced. As a result, bargain rates will be harder to find.

Certainly the biggest foreseeable event affecting tourism in 1997 is the transfer of Hong Kong from Great Britain to China at midnight on June 30. Travelers will have to decide whether to go now, to see the fabled city as it is, or to wait and witness the changes that may result from Chinese authority.

In Europe, the special celebrations this year are in Monaco, which is marking the 700th anniversary of the Grimaldi family reign, and in the Norwegian city of Trondheim and the Polish city of Gdansk, each of which is honoring its birth 1,000 years ago. Thessaloniki, Greece’s second city, has been dubbed Europe’s cultural capital for 1997, making it a yearlong focus for the arts. Vienna will commemorate the 200th anniversary of composer Franz Schubert’s birth with exhibits at the Schubert Birthplace, now a museum, and concerts of his music.

Among consumer-related trends to keep an eye on this year:

* More adventure travel opportunities aimed at people 50 and over and new adventure trips for every age, including white-water rafting in such offbeat destinations as Honduras.

* Increased interest in South America as a vacation destination--particularly Chile, which boasts spectacular scenery and political stability, and the Incan ruins of Machu Picchu in Peru. U.S. and Latin American airlines are opening new routes to the region.

* More sophisticated in-seat entertainment on long-distance flights, even for the masses stuffed in coach class. In-flight gambling is a possibility on some international routes.

* More (and perhaps cheaper) flights to foreign destinations--particularly to Asia--as the U.S. government pushes for more open-sky agreements similar to the ones signed with Canada and Germany.

* A surge of Internet travel auctions, in which airlines, hotels and tour companies auction unsold flights, rooms and tours at the last minute to bidding consumers. Travel agents may even do the bidding for you, according to a recent report in Travel Agent magazine.

* Enhanced airline on-board medical kits. American Airlines has announced it is adding 300 automatic external defibrillators, used in aiding victims of cardiac arrest, to medical kits on its over-water flights this spring. Other airlines may follow American’s lead.

* A domestic air-fare war about every seven to 14 days.

Expect international air-fare wars between now and May 1 and again after Oct. 1, predicts Tom Parsons, editor of Best Fares Discount Travel Magazine.

* Hotel rooms--a few, anyway--furnished with computers, enabling guests to keep tuned in to the Internet while on the road, according to Bill Fisher, president of the American Hotel & Motel Assn. In time, computers may become as prevalent as the in-room television set.

* The gradual strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major foreign currencies, making travel abroad a little bit cheaper.

* Potential new trouble spots to be aware of. Pay attention to current affairs this year before heading to Bangladesh, the Basque Country, China, Corsica, Cyprus, Ecuador, Indonesia, Kenya, Laos, Macedonia, Panama, Papua New Guinea and Zimbabwe, among others, cautions Robert Young Pelton, author of “The World’s Most Dangerous Places,” a Fielding guide.

Times Travel Writer Christopher Reynolds is on assignment.