1996 Unemployment Figure of 7.1% Is Lowest in 6 Years

Ventura County’s annual unemployment rate in 1996 reached its lowest level in six years, signaling that the local economy continues to emerge from the gloomy years of the recession.

A report released Friday by the state’s Employment Development Department estimated the average jobless rate for 1996 at 7.1%, down from 7.4% in 1995. The decline marks the third consecutive yearly drop in the county’s unemployment.

“It is significant in that the [downward] trend continues,” said Doug Perron, an analyst with the state Employment Development Department in Santa Barbara. “It may not be going as fast as some people would like, but it is heading in the right direction.”

The report also showed that December’s unemployment rate stood at an estimated 6.4%, a full percentage point lower than at the end of 1995. The unemployment rate at the end of November was 7.5%.

The annual results, which showed that the county’s economy added 3,600 non-farm jobs in 1996, prompted Perron and other analysts to predict even faster growth in 1997.

The jobless rate, which stood at 8.9% during the recession years of 1992 and 1993, is likely to drop into the 6% range this year, Perron said.

The recovery is broad-based as virtually all areas of the economy grew at a moderate but healthy rate. The growth during 1996 was held back only by a few sectors that are still suffering from the impacts of the recession.

“I am much more optimistic now than I was in 1996,” Perron said. “In 1996, we were still going through some defense conversion and restructuring within companies. With that aside, moving into the new year, I see a lot more opportunity for job growth.”

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Economist Mark Schniepp, whose UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project tracks the local economy, was more measured in his assessment of the job market’s performance in 1996, but was equally optimistic for 1997.

“I think 1996 was kind of a disappointing year,” he said. “We didn’t see the expansion continue to gain momentum. It just moved sideways.”

But the expansion was not derailed, Schniepp said.

In the last two months of 1996, the economy added jobs at a faster pace than it had earlier in the year, he noted.

“That is significant,” Schniepp said. “We had seen the rate of growth decreasing. It looks like it is improving.” And that trend is likely to continue into 1997, he added.

In a sign that the holiday season was good for retailers, that sector registered gains of 1,200 new jobs since December 1995, accounting for one-third of the non-farm job growth in the county.

The next strongest increase in employment was in the services sector, which grew by 900 jobs. Construction payrolls were up by 700 jobs and manufacturing by 300 jobs.

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After a sluggish performance in 1995, the agriculture sector added approximately 1,200 jobs during 1996 signaling a strong comeback.

In the government sector, jobs continued to ooze out of the military bases in 1996, but those losses were offset by a surge in education and local government jobs. Overall, the government sector grew by 800 jobs, a 1.8% increase.

“What’s putting a damper on the job market is that the bases are still downsizing,” Schniepp said. “We are at the lowest level for Department of Defense employment since 1981.” Approximately 600 jobs were lost at the military bases in the last year.

Another sector that has continued to shrink is mining. Following a slide that began in 1984, the oil and gas sector has dropped to its lowest levels since 1969, Schniepp said. Overall, the mining sector lost 300 jobs in 1996, a 15.8% drop.

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Ventura County Jobless Rate

December 1996: 6.4%

Anual Rates

1996: 7.1%

1995: 7.4%

1994: 7.8%

1993: 8.9%

Source: California Employment Development Department