Fox Is Betting Big That ‘Speed 2’ Is a Runaway Success

Hollywood has always had sequelitis.

This summer, 20th Century Fox has a serious case of it, with three on tap.

The one drawing the most attention even six months before its July 2 release is not “Home Alone 3” or “Alien Resurrection,” but Jan De Bont’s “Speed 2: Cruise Control.”

The reason industry insiders are buzzing about the production is that sources say its budget has climbed well past the original expected cost of about $100 million--already a sizable risk given that the film doesn’t have its original leading man, Keanu Reeves.

Various sources place the budget from $130 million to $165 million, a range that Fox executives contend is a fabrication by competitors.

“It is marginally over budget,” says Tom Rothman, Fox production president. “And we expect to finish well within the typical parameters of movies this size,” which the studio projects to be around $104 million.

Rothman says the film, which was greenlighted at just under $100 million, “is not more than a week over schedule.” The production has been shooting since Sept. 23, mostly in the Caribbean, and is now underway in Los Angeles with an expected wrap date of early February.

In today’s terms, the “typical parameters” Roth refers to means studios are spending bigger production and marketing dollars to bring their bigger pictures to life.

“Speed 2” is in good company this summer with such megabudgeted offerings as “Batman and Robin,” “Men in Black,” “Con Air,” “AFO” (formerly “Air Force One”) and “The Lost World: Jurassic Park.”

The most expensive summer movie by far is director James Cameron’s remake of “Titanic,” which, sources say, could cost close to $200 million to make and market. Fox, which has foreign rights, is responsible for all overages on the production, which is co-financed by Paramount Pictures at a cap of about $65 million. Paramount plans to release the movie the same Fourth of July weekend that “Speed 2” is due out.

While “Titanic” is no doubt a huge risk, industry insiders say “Speed 2” is also, particularly because it cost so much more than its $31-million 1994 predecessor.

Sequels are invariably more expensive than the original films from which they are spawned, since the cost of talent, production and marketing typically rise in the intervening years between movies in a series.

But the tripling (or more) in the cost of “Speed” in just two years is believed to be one of the biggest ever in such a short span. “Terminator 2,” Cameron’s 1991 follow-up to the 1984 original Arnold Schwarzenegger movie, is another example of a sequel whose cost far exceeded its predecessor, though there were seven years between the two movies. It was the first production ever to cost more than $100 million, but it turned out to be a good bet, since the movie grossed around $500 million worldwide and rang up tens of millions more in ancillary sales.

Fox executives see “Speed 2” as a smart business move since the original, which starred Reeves and Sandra Bullock, was a surprise box-office hit at just under $350 million worldwide, of which $121 million came from the domestic market. The movie also sold between 8 million and 9 million home video units in the U.S., for an additional $100 million-plus.

“This is an enormously valuable worldwide franchise by arguably one of the greatest action directors in the world,” says Rothman, referring to De Bont, who directed the original “Speed” and last year’s blockbuster “Twister.”

Rothman notes, “There’s lots of movies here we lose a lot of sleep over, and this isn’t one of them.” He believes the “Speed” sequel has the potential of outgrossing its predecessor, particularly since it’s being made as a PG-13 movie, which could have a wider audience than the R-rated original.

Even if “Speed 2” is a hit, Fox will have a much tougher time seeing the kind of profit it did on the original because of its higher cost and the fact that the director, stars and producer now have a generous piece of the profits, which wasn’t the case on the first go-around.

The sequel is much more expensive for two main reasons: Both the physical production and the stars’ salaries (plus their back-end deals) are costlier.

The original movie, about a runaway bus wired with a bomb that would explode if the bus slowed below 50 miles an hour, was shot on the freeways of Los Angeles. The new one, set on a large cruise ship that gets commandeered by a bad guy (Willem DeFoe), is being shot on water in multiple locations, mostly the Caribbean island St. Martin. The main set piece, the cruise ship, was built from scratch with some technical problems.

Bullock, who received $500,000 for the original and has become one of Hollywood’s hottest leading ladies, is earning around $11 million. De Bont, a former cinematographer who was paid $150,000 for his feature directorial debut on “Speed,” is collecting more than $6 million this time out. Jason Patric, the film’s new male lead (he plays a different cop character than Reeves), is being paid more than $4 million.

Hollywood executives like sequels because they feel they’re generally less risky than movies based on original ideas. That’s because presumably there’s an audience wanting to revisit the same characters in new situations.

“It’s a good investment for the studios because advertising-wise, they feel they have a ready-made audience,” says John Krier, whose company Exhibitor Relations tracks box-office business.

Rothman adds that “in a world where you spend so much money, to go into the marketing with a presold title is extremely valuable.”

But in the case of “Speed 2,” Fox is hoping the audiences won’t care that Reeves isn’t reprising his role of cop Jack Traven, Bullock’s love interest in the original, and will readily accept that their leading lady has fallen for another cop, played by Patric.

Sequels are a tricky business, especially since most don’t make as much money as their predecessors.

It can be argued that action sequels are the exception, since movies like “Lethal Weapon 2,” “Die Hard 2” and “Terminator 2” outgrossed the originals.

Then again, there are exceptions to that rule, including “Beverly Hills Cop,” “Predator” and “Jaws,” all of which grossed more than their respective sequels.