Opposition in Serbia Begins to Ebb

Whipsawed by legalistic maneuvers, beaten by police and aware their numbers have declined, Serbian anti-government demonstrators who captured the world’s imagination more than two months ago appear to be losing ground against President Slobodan Milosevic.

Despite isolated victories--the opposition assumed control of Serbia’s second-largest city this week, for example--leaders of the movement are clearly at a loss over ways to adjust their strategy, regain momentum and stiffen their challenge to the crafty Serbian strongman.

Debate within the opposition Zajedno (Together) coalition over what to do next has failed to produce answers. It was Milosevic’s decision to annul Zajedno’s Nov. 17 victories in municipal elections in 14 cities and towns that triggered an unprecedented national wave of protest now in its 11th week.

Milosevic has granted piecemeal concessions while sowing the kind of confusion that he has used in the past to stymie opponents. One day a court will rule in favor of an opposition victory in one town; a few days later another court will cancel the decision. Or, as in the case of the central city of Kragujevac last week, Milosevic allowed Zajedno candidates to occupy the City Hall posts they won--then refused to cede control of the city-run television and radio stations.

No one is suggesting that Zajedno is about to call it quits. Even if the disparate coalition were to suspend its demonstrations now, the legacy of its protest, in which university students have played a crucial, invigorating role, is a lasting, important one.

Serbs who for years acquiesced to the warmongering policies of Milosevic, as well as the corrupt, self-enriching practices of his neo-Communist cohorts, suddenly awakened to the potential power of peaceful democratic change.

Shedding layers of fear and apathy, middle-class families, elderly pensioners and intellectuals took to the streets day after day, providing, ultimately, inspiration to other Balkan countries such as Bulgaria.

And the emperor was shown to be naked. Milosevic’s aura of invincibility, nurtured by Western officials who cast him as the pillar of peace accords in Bosnia-Herzegovina, is shattered.

Though Western support for the opposition has hardly been steady, there is a firm consensus now that Milosevic is not indispensable.

But more immediate, concrete gains from the opposition’s perseverance are more difficult to cite.

Privately, several Zajedno leaders now acknowledge that they will never gain control of Belgrade, the Serbian and Yugoslav capital where their election victory would have produced the city’s first non-Communist mayor since World War II.

Instead, Zajedno will have to settle for Nis, Serbia’s second-largest city, a traditional industrial stronghold of Milosevic’s Socialist Party, where an opposition city council was installed Monday.

The demonstrations, meanwhile, began to take on a harder edge in recent weeks. With Milosevic’s police successful in blocking marches, the size of the daily rally dwindled.

Instead, lots of smaller demonstrations in neighborhoods throughout the city became the tactic.

That led, however, to more frequent confrontations with police, and protesters reported that they were being beaten nightly.

Police seemed especially angry at a round-the-clock face-off with students on a downtown Belgrade street, which lasted until the head of the Serbian Orthodox Church led a religious procession through the city Monday. Only then did police withdraw.

The U.S. State Department protested formally to the Milosevic regime for the beatings.

To be sure, Zajedno can still attract a crowd. On Tuesday night, after the time of the rally was changed so that it followed the nightly state television newscast, tens of thousands of people again filled central Belgrade.

But the Socialists are already planning for the next Serbian presidential election, which is scheduled for year’s end. Zajedno, when it does finally focus on the issue, is in for a fight over who its candidate will be. Rivalry and jealousy between the two key leaders--the fiery and flamboyant Vuk Draskovic and the pragmatic and ambitious Zoran Djindjic--continue to plague the coalition, according to sources.

Milosevic has moved in recent days to consolidate his forces, after signs that the ruling party was fraying at the edges. He shuffled his Cabinet and appears to be lining up support at the federal level. Serbia is the dominant partner in an alliance with Montenegro that forms the rump Yugoslavia.

Zajedno has attempted to seize the initiative by forming this week a “shadow city council” in one town where it won the election but was denied office. Zajedno leaders are hoping this will serve as a model.

The opposition’s greatest ally may be the economy, which worsens by the day. Money is tight; pensioners, the army and factory workers have not been paid.

“The regime must fall,” Draskovic told a crowd over the weekend. “It is crumbling slowly, but we must keep up our efforts to complete the process. If we miss this chance, God help us all.”