Prognosis Uncertain for Croatia, Leader

ZAGREB, Croatia — Fireworks filling the nighttime sky, Croatian President Franjo Tudjman savored his landslide victory at a city sports club last Sunday, surrounded by many of the men who hope to replace him.

The speculation over who will succeed Tudjman, who is not expected to survive the five-year presidential term to which he was just elected, constitutes one of the biggest guessing games going in Croatia these days.

At 75, the white-haired Tudjman is suffering from stomach cancer, according to U.S. officials. He denies it, saying he merely has ulcers. Publicly, neither Tudjman nor the officials closest to him will talk about what happens if the president dies in office.

But diplomats, analysts and opposition figures anticipate a period of deep crisis as rivals within Tudjman’s nationalistic Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) fight for power. The battle will mirror the divisions within the ruling elite and could threaten the stability of a country that is a cornerstone for regional peace in the Balkans.

Croatia emerged from communism seven years ago, then became immersed in a brutal war for independence from the Serb-dominated Yugoslav federation. In a country with no tradition of pluralism, Tudjman’s autocratic rule further prevented the building of Croatia’s democratic institutions and culture. The vacuum will complicate any post-Tudjman transition.

In addition, the opposition is weak, divided and reportedly infiltrated by ruling party spies.

Tudjman has used the past few years to extend his grasp and that of his political cronies to all levels of the economy. His son controls the state intelligence apparatus and his daughter until recently controlled the country’s lucrative duty-free franchises. HDZ officials head most state companies, factories, the telephone system, roads, railways and other businesses and utilities.

Party members, united more by convenience and shared profit than by ideology, run the gamut from fascists to communists. There are two roughly drawn factions: the stronger radical nationalists and a cadre of technocrats and managers more palatable to the West.

“The ruling party will split as soon as Tudjman dies,” said Zarko Puhovski, a political analyst and vice president of the Croatian Helsinki Committee for Human Rights. “There is no program but Tudjman. He is the guarantor of their control over power and privilege. . . . I can see a long process of instability, but you’ll have a strong right wing emerge and a centrist party.”

The right-wing nationalist faction is led by Tudjman’s trusted defense minister, Gojko Susak, who is expected to struggle to keep the party together in hopes of preserving the spoils of the kingdom. But Susak too is rumored to be suffering from cancer, making him an unlikely presidential successor.

Susak joined Tudjman around the victory table on election night. Also present was another potential successor, Ivic Pasalic, who advises Tudjman on internal security matters and is rumored to be seeking the high-profile and strategic position of interior minister.

Like Susak, Pasalic is from the Croat-dominated Herzegovina region of Bosnia. The Bosnian Croats from Herzegovina are among the most hard-line nationalists who openly work for a Croatian takeover of the western half of Bosnia. A successor to Tudjman from this faction could boost those fighting for the permanent partition of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The other current within the party is embodied in Foreign Minister Mate Granic, who has probably the best relationship with the West of any Zagreb authority. But because he is a relative moderate, Granic’s following is limited.

“The future mini-Tudjmans are already preparing themselves in the lap of presidential power,” Krsto Cviic, editor of Zagreb’s new opposition weekly, Tjednik, wrote this month. “When Tudjman goes, he will leave behind shoes that no one will be able to fill. In that moment will come the opportunity for a democratic Croatia.”

Or, Cviic added, the vacuum could produce “one Tudjman after another”--politicians with authoritarian tendencies but without Tudjman’s monolithic hold on power.

There is speculation that Pasalic and others may try to have the constitution rewritten to create the post of vice president, making the succession automatic. Under current law, if a president dies in office, he or she is replaced temporarily by the president of the parliament, and new elections are held within two months.

Tudjman generally looked fit in his campaign appearances and on election day last Sunday. He has regained some of the considerable weight he lost following treatment last year at Washington’s Walter Reed Army Hospital.

The Croatian president was furious when U.S. officials disclosed his hospitalization. That marked the beginning of the decline in relations between Croatia and the United States, allies until then and partners in the funneling of weapons from Iran to Bosnia during the latter country’s war against Bosnian Serb separatists.

Until recently, U.S. officials ignored egregious human rights abuses committed by Croats against Croatian Serbs who have been driven from their homes and in many cases slain. Under Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, however, U.S. policymakers have put pressure on Tudjman to allow the return of Croatian Serbs, to free up the heavily censored media and to surrender indicted war crimes suspects.

Tudjman continues to resist on all fronts. Those who have watched the career of this onetime Communist general find it ironic that what could be his waning months probably will be marked by acrimonious relations with Washington and the West, of which he so aspires to become part.