Housing Values Near El Toro Keeping Pace

Providing fresh evidence that a proposed commercial airport hasn’t hurt the local real estate market, a study found that housing values around the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station have kept pace with the rest of Orange County.

The report, released Wednesday, shows that from January to June this year, house and condominium values within 6.5 miles of the military site rose by an average of 1.3%. Similar homes in other parts of the county appreciated by 0.7%, a gap that is not considered significant, statistically.

The study was conducted by the Anaheim-based information services firm Experian Inc., which is not affiliated with groups on either side of the contentious debate over the airport plan.

The findings show that “the market within the El Toro radius is not out of line with the rest of the county,” said Nima Nattagh, the Experian market analyst who conducted the study.

The results are significant because opponents of the county’s plan to convert the air base into a commercial airport argue that housing values will decline in Irvine, Laguna Hills, Lake Forest, Portola Hills and other communities if passenger and cargo jets are continually taking off and landing nearby.

Bill Kogerman, head of the anti-airport group Taxpayers for Responsible Planning, challenged the Experian findings, saying that real estate agents have told him of prospective buyers “redlining” neighborhoods that would be most affected by noise and traffic generated by the airport.

“In certain parts of south Orange County, without exception, the prospect of the airport has negatively impacted sales,” Kogerman said.

It’s also possible, he suggested, that some people who have decided to buy houses in the area are betting that the battle over the airport will drag on for many years, or that the plan eventually will be scrapped altogether.

County supervisors in December approved a commercial airport. The county is preparing detailed plans for the project, which will eventually come before the board for a vote. But opponents continue to push for alternative uses, such as a sports and entertainment complex.

Nattagh stressed that the study only addresses the direction of housing values within a specific time period, and that the situation might change in the future if the airport plan comes closer to being realized.

This is the second time that Nattagh has studied housing values in the area, and he plans to revisit the data every six months.

The first study, released by Experian in April, found that housing values near El Toro rose 0.7% from January 1995 to February 1996, while homes elsewhere in the county appreciated 1.1%. That gap also was not statistically significant, the firm said.

In the survey released Wednesday, Experian looked at the same 1,000 Orange County homes, including 470 properties within 6.5 miles of the El Toro air base.

Experian used housing valuation methods similar to those employed by real estate appraisers, in which recent sales prices of comparable properties are used to determine values of other houses in the area.

The firm compared homes that were similar in such factors as lot size, living area and the year built.

The study found that houses and condominiums less than 2.9 miles from the air station rose 0.7% in value in the first half of the year. Homes located from 4 to 4.9 miles from the site had the biggest increase--2.4%.

Gary Watts, owner of Impact Real Estate in Mission Viejo, said the Experian study conformed with his observations--that the real estate market in the El Toro area is reacting to the same economic forces at work in other parts of Southern California.

Sales overall in the South County region are up about 1% so far this year, Watts said. While that isn’t a big increase, he believes that a tight supply of homes on the market is limiting sales while creating some upward pressure on prices.

Watts, who has taken no position on the airport debate, said real estate agents have been disclosing information about the proposed flight paths, but “it isn’t stopping the sales.”

He said that one of his listings, a Lake Forest home less than four miles from the air station, sold in four days for more than the asking price.

By the end of the year, real estate prices in the area might show an average increase of 5% from a year earlier, Watts said.

“The buyers see the flight paths and it doesn’t bother them,” he said. “They still want to live here.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Airport Impact

Residential property values near the proposed El Toro airport rose by an average of 1.3% between January and June of this year. Change in home values:

*--*

Miles from Jan. 97 to June 97 Homes surveyed El Toro Jan. 97 to June 97 Homes surveyed Less than 2.9 0.7% 73 3 to 3.9 0.5 114 4 to 4.9 2.4 93 5 to 5.9 1.0 107 6 to 6.5 2.1 100 0 to 6.5, inclusive 1.3 487 Comparable homes throughout Orange County 0.7 544

*--*

Source: Experian