They Call the Windfall Mariah

How does the record industry spell “Merry Christmas”?

This year it could well be M-A-R-I-A-H C-A-R-E-Y.

A survey of music retailers and programmers leaves little doubt that Carey’s “Butterfly,” due in stores Sept. 16, is the sure thing to lead what is looking like a very strong field of releases during the crucial pre-Christmas buying season.

“No one’s recent track record can top Mariah Carey,” says Bob Bell, new music buyer for the Wherehouse stores. “The pattern has been that she puts out a record in September, and then Christmas week it’s No. 1.”

Her last album, 1995’s “Daydream,” has sold more than 7 million copies in the United States, and the new album is said to continue that collection’s move toward a more urban sound rather than the big ballads of her earlier albums.

“Columbia certainly knows how to market her,” says Tower Records President Russ Solomon, who also sees this as the expected sales leader. “They have a good plan and a good artist here.”

That’s not meant as a slight against other artists or companies with high-profile releases coming soon. It just means that no one thinks even stars as big as Eric Clapton, Elton John, Oasis, Michael Bolton, Will Smith, the Rolling Stones, Janet Jackson, the reunited Fleetwood Mac, Babyface, Van Halen, Green Day, Bjork and--perhaps--Pearl Jam can top Carey.

But the very fact that such names have new albums coming is embraced by retailers hoping to continue the upward trend of music sales in recent months, with mid-year sales up 5.5% over last year’s stagnant business.

Here’s a rundown of the three next picks:

* Oasis’ “Be Here Now,” due Aug. 26, is seen as something of a question mark in terms of whether it can approach the massive level the band has achieved at home in Britain, but the potential is seen as tremendous.

“I don’t know if this will result in Oasis-mania here,” says Oedipus, vice president and program director of Boston’s influential modern rock station WBCN-FM. “But it will further add to their mystique and appeal. They’re the closest thing we’ve had to real rock stars in ages--they give good press and they’re bad boys.”

* Eric Clapton follows the huge success of his “Change the World” single collaboration with Babyface by making an album that expands on that song’s soulful tone--including more Babyface contributions. It’s due Oct. 14.

* Will Smith’s still untitled album, due Oct. 28, couldn’t come at a better time for the former Fresh Prince. Not only does he have the momentum of his starring role in one of the summer’s biggest films, “Men in Black,” but he performed the first two singles on the movie’s soundtrack album, which has been at or near the top of the charts for several weeks and shows no sign of slowing.

Others in the pre-Christmas lineup include:

The Rolling Stones’ “Bridges to Babylon” (due in late September or early October), Fleetwood Mac’s “The Dance” (Aug. 19), the Van Halen debut of new singer Gary Cherone (Oct. 14), Green Day’s “Nimrod” (Oct. 14), Janet Jackson’s “Velvet Rope” (September), Brandy (November), a Babyface “Unplugged” set (November) and albums to be scheduled by Seal, Don Henley and possibly Madonna.

And hold on--there’s talk of a new album from the Spice Girls in November.

Collections from Pearl Jam and Garth Brooks could also be added to the release schedule.