NOT BOWLED OVER / ALLIANCE BOWLS

So, is this deja BYU all over again?

A quick political football recap:

Last year, the Western Athletic Conference went ballistic when 13-1 Brigham Young didn’t get an at-large, $8-million alliance bowl bid despite a No. 5 national ranking.

The WAC, not asked to be a partner in the bowl alliance, sprinted to Congress with a copy of the Sherman Antitrust Act and forced a political concession giving it guaranteed future access.

Flash forward to Sunday:

UCLA moved up to No. 5 in the Associated Press poll, yet is anything but a lock for one of two at-large alliance selections.

Does this tale ring familiar?

Disclaimer: The BYU-UCLA analogy is a political discussion only, in no way suggesting last year’s Cougars were as good as this year’s Bruins. (They weren’t).

Yet, UCLA has been 9-2 for more than a week and its chances for an $8-million bowl have improved only because two alliance pillars, Arizona State and Penn State, came crashing down over the weekend between bites of stuffing and cranberries.

This alliance pursuit isn’t a story of addition--9-2 team plus No. 5 ranking equals $8-million bid--it’s a story of attrition.

The question is: How many more “better” teams have to topple before UCLA, which has won nine consecutive games, gets into a big-money game? (Answer to follow).

If they handed out bids today, the Bruins would still draw short straw.

Unfair?

Yes, but this is the way a highly imperfect bowl society operates.

As Fiesta Bowl Executive Director John Junker says to anyone who will listen: “The purpose for the formation of the alliance was to produce the best 1-2 game in one game. It’s always been the thinking that the other two bowls would be somehow tied to a regional matchup as has been historically done in bowl games.”

In other words, rankings and records aren’t the end-all.

Despite UCLA’s loftier poll status, it is a virtual lock the Fiesta Bowl will take No. 11 Kansas State with the fourth pick, matching the Wildcats against Syracuse.

Penn State’s humiliating defeat at Michigan State on Saturday cost the Nittany Lions eight poll pegs--they dropped from fourth to 12th--and wrecked Coach Joe Paterno’s quest to reach career win No. 300 in the Sugar Bowl.

That defeat also freed up the other at-large pick, but conventional wisdom holds the Sugar Bowl, with the third and fifth alliance picks, would take 10-2 Ohio State instead of UCLA, matching the Buckeyes against No. 3 Florida State.

The Pacific 10 reaction?

“They are up to No. 5 in the country,” assistant commissioner Jim Muldoon said Sunday night about UCLA. “They’re obviously deserving of an alliance bowl, but it’s not just rankings with the alliance. Forty-eight hours ago, I didn’t think UCLA had a chance, but with Penn State and Arizona State losing, the same thing could happen this weekend with Nebraska and Tennessee.”

No way Kansas State is better on the field than UCLA, but it’s a lot better in the stands, a key component for a Fiesta Bowl desperately seeking a hearty live gate to dress up a less-than-desirable New Year’s Eve time slot.

No. 9 Ohio State getting the Sugar Bowl nod over No. 5 UCLA would not be a calamity. The Buckeyes will bring more people to New Orleans and are at least as alliance-qualified as UCLA. Ohio State’s two losses were both on the road: a four-point defeat to then-No. 2 Penn State and a six-point loss to No. 1 Michigan.

UCLA’s alliance fate will be decided next weekend. The world and the Cotton Bowl waits.

If No. 2 Nebraska loses to Texas A&M; in the Big 12 title game or No. 3 Tennessee falls to Auburn in the SEC title game, UCLA would move up to No. 4.

Then it gets sticky. How could the alliance, with a clear conscience, overlook the Bruins?

Stand back and watch.

If Nebraska and Tennessee both go down, the Orange Bowl would almost be obligated to match No. 2 Florida State versus a No. 3 UCLA, setting up the goose-bumpy prospect of a final national title poll showdown between UCLA and Washington State.

How’s that?

If Washington State topples No. 1 Michigan, and UCLA at No. 3 upends No. 2 Florida State, the Bruins and Cougars could make legitimate claims for the title.

“You’re looking at a hell of an election,” Muldoon said. “There are a lot of instances where a one-loss team won the national title, but a two-loss team? But, if all those things happen . . . “

And, once again, we’d all be wondering why Skip Hicks wasn’t in the game on that critical play in UCLA’s three-point loss at Washington State on Aug. 30.

Crazy?

The whole blasted bowl-forecasting season has been nuts. There’s still a chance seven teams--Michigan, Nebraska, Tennessee, Florida State, North Carolina, Washington State, and Kansas State will finish with one loss.

And the national champion is . . . ?

Elsewhere, Iowa is supposed go to the Sun Bowl as the No. 5 Big Ten representative, but the Hawkeyes are trying to opt out because they played in the Sun Bowl in 1995.

The Sun Bowl is trying to match Notre Dame against Arizona State, but can’t do so unless the Big Ten releases Iowa.

But why would the Big Ten want to do Notre Dame any favors, considering the Irish have been so cold to becoming a 12th Big Ten member?

The Independence Bowl is talking to USC, but really wants Iowa. If that can’t be done, it wouldn’t mind Notre Dame versus LSU.

Notre Dame doesn’t want any part of a rematch, sensing vengeance as a bowl theme given the way the Irish routed the Tigers in Baton Rouge.

Are there any absolutes in this bowl business?

Yes. If Michigan beats Washington State in the Rose Bowl, the Wolverines absolutely will win the national title.

If Michigan loses, gulp:

* Nebraska can win the title if it wins the Orange Bowl and finishes 13-0.

* Tennessee can win the title if it beats Nebraska in the Orange Bowl and finishes 13-1.

* Florida State can win the title if either Nebraska or Tennessee loses next week and the Seminoles win the Orange Bowl.

* If UCLA can get to No. 3, the Bruins might sneak out a poll title if they defeat No. 2 Florida State in the Orange Bowl and Washington State wins the Rose.

* Washington State might claim the title if undefeated Nebraska loses in the Orange Bowl and the Cougars beat Michigan in the Rose.

* North Carolina, No. 5 in this week’s coaches’ poll, might be howling for a piece of the prize if things break the Tar Heels’ way.

Other than that, the bowl picture is set.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Projected Bowl Lineup

Projections of bowl matchups, which in many cases are made based on the outcome of conference championship games. All times Pacific.

SATURDAY, DEC. 20

* LAS VEGAS BOWL: Air Force vs. Oregon, 3 p.m. (ESPN 2)

THURSDAY, DEC. 25

* ALOHA BOWL (At Honolulu):

Washington vs. Michigan State, 12:30 p.m. (ABC)

FRIDAY, DEC. 26

* MOTOR CITY BOWL (At Pontiac, Mich.): Marshall or Toledo vs. TBA, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

SATURDAY, DEC. 27

* INSIGHT.COM BOWL (At Tucson): New Mexico or Colorado State vs. Arizona, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

SUNDAY, DEC. 28

* INDEPENDENCE BOWL (At Shreveport, La.): Louisiana State vs. Iowa, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

MONDAY, DEC. 29

* HUMANITARIAN BOWL (At Boise, Idaho): Utah State vs. Cincinnati, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

* CARQUEST BOWL (At Miami): Georgia Tech vs. West Virginia, 4:30 p.m. (TBS)

* HOLIDAY BOWL (At San Diego): Oklahoma State vs. Colorado State or New Mexico, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

TUESDAY, DEC. 30

* ALAMO BOWL (At San Antonio): Missouri vs. Purdue, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 31

* SUN BOWL (At El Paso): Arizona State vs. Notre Dame, 11 a.m. (CBS)

* LIBERTY BOWL (At Memphis, Tenn.): Pittsburgh vs. Southern Mississippi, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN)

* FIESTA BOWL (At Tempe, Ariz.): Kansas State vs. Syracuse, 4 p.m. (CBS)

THURSDAY, JAN. 1

* OUTBACK BOWL (At Tampa, Fla.): Wisconsin vs. Auburn, 8 a.m. (ESPN)

* GATOR BOWL (At Jacksonville, Fla.): North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech, 9:30 a.m. (NBC)

* CITRUS BOWL (At Orlando, Fla.): Penn State vs. Florida, 10 a.m. (ABC)

* COTTON BOWL (At Dallas): Texas A&M; vs. UCLA, 10:30 a.m. (CBS)

* ROSE BOWL (At Pasadena): Washington State vs. Michigan, 2 p.m. (ABC)

* SUGAR BOWL (At New Orleans): Florida State vs. Ohio State, 5 p.m. (ABC)

FRIDAY, JAN. 2

* PEACH BOWL (At Atlanta): Georgia vs. TBA, noon (ESPN)

* ORANGE BOWL (At Miami): Nebraska vs. Tennessee, 5 p.m. (CBS)

*

AROUND THE NATION

* SWEET OR LOW? Sugar Bowl committee will consider UCLA’s case soon. C8

* INTEREST RATE: USC is showing interest in playing in the Independence Bowl. C8

* DAILY REPORT: C8

* LATEST POLLS: C8