Two Days and Frowning . . .

Lured by major markdowns, consumers jammed the nation’s shopping malls on the final weekend before Christmas but did not spend enough to improve the weak holiday shopping season, retailers said Monday.

“The weekend was not as strong as we had hoped,” said J.C. Penney spokesman Duncan Muir. “It was soft. We need more volume the next two days.”

“Sales were OK, but we’re still at the low end” of expectations, said Kmart spokesman Robert Burton.

Industry analysts had been predicting a seasonal sales increase of 3% to 5% over 1996 for the nation and Southern California. Many, however, are revising those estimates in the wake of the final shopping weekend. For example, analyst Walter Loeb of New York-based Loeb Associates on Monday lowered his earlier estimate of 4% to 5% for 1997 sales increases to 3% to 3.5%.

“It’s a difficult season for most retailers,” Loeb said. “Stores were discounting early in the season, and they’re marking down heavily late in the season.”

Retailers had hoped to avoid or limit late-season markdowns this year. Many chains offered discounts and other promotions in October and November to encourage early-bird shopping, but that bid failed. Almost two-thirds of U.S. consumers planned to complete their seasonal shopping in the seven days before Christmas, and about half those planned to shop today and Christmas Eve, according to new survey results from Visa USA.

Analysts have also cited heavy personal debt, layoffs and job concerns for lower-than-expected spending. However, economists and analysts are now saying that many consumers are shifting holiday spending from traditional gifts to travel expenditures.

“There’s no large, single reason for the weakness,” said Steve Latz, an analyst at A.G. Edwards in St. Louis. “People are traveling more. There are credit card issues, and some people are concerned about the stock market because of economic fluctuations in Asia.”

Latz had been predicting a sales increase of 3% to 3.5%. He said his prediction, made a month ago, might now be considered optimistic.

“If the industry has a strong finish in the last three shopping days, we might see a 3% increase over 1996,” he said.

Clothing sales--particularly men’s suits and moderately priced women’s apparel--have been weak. Sales of color televisions--normally a big seller in December--also are down compared with a year ago.

Many department stores and specialty apparel chains offered discounts of up to 50% last weekend. Consumer electronics chains offered similar discounts on many items Saturday and Sunday. Some upscale retailers such as Tiffany & Co. offered markdowns on some of their less expensive merchandise.

Analysts said they expect discount chains, specialty apparel chains and department stores to try to reach elusive sales goals by cutting prices heavily in the final two shopping days.

May Department Stores, the operator of the Robinsons-May chain, is among the many retailers that will fall short of their seasonal expectations, Latz said. He predicted that the St. Louis-based company will record seasonal sales gains of 2.5% to 3%.

Another department store operator, Minneapolis-based Dayton Hudson Corp., said its seasonal sales also are below the levels it originally projected. Dayton Hudson operates department stores in the Midwest, as well as the Target and Mervyn’s chains.

Mervyn’s is the bright spot for Dayton Hudson this season. Sales at the chain are slightly above the company’s expectations, and the pace of business at Mervyn’s Southern California stores is slightly stronger than the chain’s national average, Dayton Hudson spokeswoman Gail Dorn said.

Holiday sales at Target, however, are below the mid-single-digit increases the company expected, Dorn said.

Sears, which had one of the nation’s strongest holiday sales periods a year ago, is also having a weaker season. Sears spokeswoman Jan Drummond said the company is still hopeful, however.

Conversely, more and more retailers are now lowering their expectations for the season, said Kurt Barnard, the New Jersey-based publisher of Barnard’s Retail Trend Report.

“Overall, retailers have been more promotional this year,” he said. “Despite that, many chains have resigned themselves to the fact that they will have to offer larger-than-expected clearance sales beginning Dec. 26.”