LCDs on the ’98 Alphabet Soup List

As 1997 draws to a close, it’s time to look into my LCB--liquid crystal ball--to see what’s in store for PC users in 1998.

OK, computerized crystal balls might not be on the horizon for next year, but liquid crystal displays (LCDs) are coming to desktop computers.

LCDs have been used for years in notebook PCs, but Sharp, NEC, IBM, Samsung, Mitsubishi and other companies are now making LCDs for desktop systems. Several were introduced at Comdex in the $2,000-to-$3,000 price range, but 1998 should see some pretty significant price cuts, with complete desktop systems that come with LCD panels instead of traditional TV-like cathode ray tubes.

LCD panels are more energy-efficient and generally easier on the eyes than CRT tubes, and they take up a lot less desk space. Today’s flat-panel LCD displays are typically 15 inches or smaller. But Sharp, in collaboration with Philips and Sony, is now demonstrating a 42-inch Plasma Address liquid crystal display (PAL-C) that has better contrast and brightness and a wider viewing angle than today’s LCDs.

Sharp is also thinking small. A number of hand-held devices that support Windows CE 2.0 debuted at the Comdex expo in November, but Sharp is introducing one with a twist. Its 17-ounce Mobilon HC-4500 unit supports an optional ($399) digital camera card that plugs into the Mobilon’s PC card slot, turning the hand-held PC into a digital camera.

The unit’s color LCD screen becomes the preview and review panel for the camera. Photos are stored in the CE device’s 16 megabytes of memory.

1997 saw enormous growth for the Internet, but if International Data Corp. is right, we haven’t seen anything yet. IDC Senior Vice President Frank Gens estimates that worldwide, there are more than 65 million users on the Web, up from 28 million a year ago.

By the end of 1998, according to IDC, the number of Web users could surge to 90 million to 100 million. Gens predicts that one out of four U.S. households will be connected to the Web by the end of next year.

Not everyone will be logging on with a PC. The coming year should be a good one for television set-top boxes like WebTV and RCA’s n/c as the Internet begins to appeal to a broader cross-section of users.

Gens expects an explosion in the number of different types of information appliances available.

The TV isn’t the only non-PC device that can bring you the Internet. Casio PhoneMate, on Jan. 8, is expected to announce its IT-380 E-Mail Link, a speaker phone and digital answering machine that also lets you check your e-mail.

The device has a three-line LCD screen that displays the subject and sender of incoming e-mail. If you actually want to read or respond to the mail, you’ll have to boot up a PC, but it’s still an inexpensive way to keep track of what’s coming in. Uniden previously announced its EP 200 E-Mail Phone, a full-featured e-mail terminal as well and a cordless speaker phone with caller ID.

Speaking of TV, we’ll see more companies--including Micron Electronics--joining Gateway and Compaq in the PC home entertainment market. These systems combine large-screen TVs with PC, DVD (digital virtual disc) drives and modems to bring the two technologies together.

A number of PC makers are now shipping computers with DVD drives, but it will be the end of the year before we see any significant number of software titles that make such drives a compelling buy.

For most Web users, 1998 won’t bring much relief when it comes to the “worldwide wait.” If anything, cyber traffic jams will get worse as more and more people rely on the Net for information, commerce and basic communications.

The good news is that the International Telecommunications Union and the modem industry will come to an agreement early next year on a 56K-standard, making it safe for users and Internet service providers to upgrade to new equipment.

We’ll also see an increased deployment of higher-speed access services such as cable modems. A few phone companies will roll out ADSL (asymmetric digital subscriber line) service that in theory can deliver download speeds up to 6 megabits per second and let subscribers upload data at up to 640 kilobytes per second.

Both Pacific Bell and GTE are offering limited ADSL trials in Southern California and other areas of the country. For more on the subject, point your browser to https://www.adsl.com/

Most phone companies already offer ISDN service that operates at up to 115 Kbps but, in addition to installation and monthly charges, there are per-minute charges for daytime use.

Boca Research has another solution that doesn’t require special phone lines. Its $279 Dynamic Duo, available now, uses two regular phone lines to deliver speeds up to 112 Kbps.

As its name implies, Windows 1998 should be available sometime next year, unless legal issues cause further delays. As I wrote in a recent column, the operating system itself isn’t all that revolutionary, but it does offer support for new hardware devices that should have an impact on next year’s computing scene.

For one thing, the new operating system supports the Universal Serial Bus, which makes it possible to connect modems, digital cameras, scanners and other peripherals into a PC with a minimum of hassle. Some PC vendors are providing a version of Windows 95 with USB support, but don’t expect to see too many USB peripherals until operating support is ubiquitous.

Windows 98 will also add support for DVD drives, including the recordable DVD-RAM drives expected in 1998.

Panasonic has announced that it will ship a $799 DVD-RAM drive in January 1998 that will let users record up to 5.2 gigabytes on a $40 disc.

As computers continue to drop in price and increase in usability, expect to see an increasing number of homes buy their second or even third PC. That will lead to a demand for the “home area network,” with computers linked to share data, printers and other resources.

Ultimately, we can expect to see PCs networked with consumer devices such as TVs, utility meters and perhaps even kitchen appliances. But don’t expect that any time this millennium.

Happy New Year.