Clinton Job Rating Hits 68%, Best Showing Ever

WASHINGTON —  President Clinton’s job approval has soared to the highest level of his presidency as strong public support for his policies and a distaste for his accusers appear to be outweighing doubts about his personal conduct, according to a new nationwide Los Angeles Times Poll.

When asked how Clinton is handling his job as president, 68% of those polled said they approve and only 29% disapprove. That rating is up about 10 percentage points from the level found by a Times Poll last weekend, a few days after allegations first became public that Clinton had carried on an affair with a former White House intern, Monica S. Lewinsky, and had urged her to lie about it.

Even last week, Clinton’s job approval rating had suffered only slightly from the allegations. Clinton’s high poll ratings have confounded his political adversaries and surprised many analysts, who believed he would suffer badly in public esteem because of the allegations.

The fact that his approval has risen appears to be attributable to several factors:

* Clinton clearly received a boost from his State of the Union speech, which was heavily watched and overwhelmingly well received.

* The public appears to be making a sharp distinction between his private behavior and his ability to conduct official business.

* When asked about his private behavior, the public viewed Clinton far more charitably than do his critics.

* And, finally, the public has a low opinion of Clinton’s main accusers, particularly independent counsel Kenneth W. Starr.

“Clinton, in his State of the Union speech, appears to have done the right thing by not discussing the charges against him,” said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus. “He appeared presidential and portrayed himself to the American people as in control and governing as normal.”

Americans remain sharply divided about whether they believe Clinton’s denials that he had an affair, the poll shows. And the poll indicates that his standing could erode substantially if evidence ever proves that Clinton lied or urged others to lie. If serious wrongdoing were proved, majorities said they could support Clinton’s impeachment or resignation.

But respondents clearly do not want that to happen. By 56% to 39%, those polled said that “if the allegations prove true, I do not want Clinton’s affair with Lewinsky or his efforts to deny it to force him out of office.”

*

At least some of Clinton’s current high standing is likely to be the result of the “bounce” that presidents usually receive after major speeches--a phenomenon that tends to dissipate over time.

But even discounting the bounce, Clinton’s approval is very high--considerably higher than after previous State of the Union speeches and higher than the levels enjoyed by previous second-term presidents. Through most of his presidency, Clinton’s approval has seldom topped 60%.

The Times Poll was conducted Thursday through Saturday among 1,314 adults nationwide. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In comparison with last week’s survey, Clinton has gained substantial ground among younger Americans and political independents. In the current survey, those between the ages of 18 and 29 gave him positive job ratings by a margin of 77% to 21%, compared with 52% to 44% a week ago. Independents gave him a positive job approval, 70% to 27%, compared with 56% to 38% last week.

The poll also indicates some overall improvement in Clinton’s ratings among men. In past surveys, including last week’s, women had tended to give Clinton a somewhat higher rating than men--the much noted “gender gap.” In the current survey, Clinton’s ratings are up among both men and women, with no statistically significant gender gap.

Overall, the survey shows Clinton receiving very high ratings on his presidential responsibilities.

*

Those polled said, by a margin of 53% to 38%, that the country is on the right track and, by 86% to 12%, that the economy is doing well. And the poll clearly indicates that Americans give Clinton credit for those good times.

When asked if the country is better off or worse off because of Clinton’s tenure in office, more than half said the country had benefited, while only 1 in 10 said the country was worse off and almost 4 in 10 said Clinton had not made a difference one way or the other.

Even among Republicans and conservatives, the percentage saying the country is better off because of Clinton outweighs the percentage who say the country has suffered.

Looking to the future, each of the major proposals in Clinton’s State of the Union speech gained approval by margins of well over 2 to 1. Three quarters of those who saw or heard the speech rated it excellent or good.

That finding is no surprise, since Clinton’s aides had done extensive polling about possible policy initiatives before putting them in the address. White House strategists have sought to shift attention away from Clinton’s personal life and toward his policies. The poll shows the potential strength Clinton could gain from that approach.

The public clearly makes a sharp distinction between the private and the public spheres.

When asked if it is possible for Clinton to “behave unethically in his personal life while still maintaining integrity in his presidential responsibilities,” those surveyed said yes by a margin of 59% to 35%.

By 54% to 38% those polled said Clinton has the “honesty and integrity to be president”--a level that is about average for his presidency. By 61% to 38%, they viewed him as credible.

Byrum Cartwright, a 54-year-old dentist from Fargo, N.D., one of those surveyed, was typical of those who said they draw a distinction between private and public conduct.

“He probably is a guy who doesn’t handle his sexual ethics the way we would like,” Cartwright said.

But Cartwright described himself as “offended” by the way Clinton’s personal weaknesses are being used in “political feuds.”

“It’s really irrelevant. It’s between him and his wife,” Cartwright said. “If you want to have an ethically perfect person” in office, he added, “you’re kidding yourself.”

Similarly, Lisa Burke, a 24-year-old self-described liberal Democrat from Columbus, Ga., said she is skeptical of Clinton’s denials, but puts his performance on the job ahead of his private behavior.

“If he did it, that’s his business,” she said. “As long as he does his job for the American people, that’s what I’m concerned about.”

Even when asked about his private life, Americans are less censorious than are Clinton’s critics.

*

When asked if Clinton is “fundamentally a decent person who has some character flaws” or is “amoral and fundamentally not a decent person,” those surveyed chose the more positive portrayal, 70% to 26%. This is so even though, by more than 2 to 1, those surveyed said that even before the new allegations they had thought Clinton had engaged in extramarital affairs.

Indeed, 45% of those who voted for Clinton in both 1992 and 1996 said they thought he had had affairs even before the current allegations, compared with 28% who did not think so and 27% who said they were not sure.

Clinton’s personal favorability rating--57% favorable, 36% unfavorable--is lower than his job approval, but is still quite healthy--9 percentage points more positive than last week and about the same level as when he was reelected.

His wife’s favorability has moved sharply higher. By better than 2 to 1, those surveyed viewed Hillary Rodham Clinton favorably--the most positive rating she has ever received in a Times Poll.

The shift in Mrs. Clinton’s favorability seems in large part to come from moderate Republicans and Republican women. A majority of moderate Republicans now view her favorably, and Republican women, both moderates and conservatives, now divide evenly--45% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

Clinton’s chief accusers fare much worse.

Only 32% of those polled said they approve of the way Starr is handling his job, while 37% disapprove and 31% are not sure.

*

By 58% to 32%, those polled said the allegations against Clinton “have more to do with partisan politics [than] getting to the truth”--a view that is even shared by 44% of Republicans.

By 51% to 43%, those surveyed said they agree with Mrs. Clinton that the allegations are “part of a continuing right-wing conspiracy.”

And 52% said they believe the news media are being unfairly tough on Clinton, with 32% saying the media have been fair and 11% saying too lenient.

As for Lewinsky, only 41% said she is credible, while 48% said she is not. And a 42%-35% plurality said they do not believe Starr is “unfairly going after” Lewinsky, with 23% saying they were unsure.

Americans remain closely divided on whether they believe Clinton’s own denials of an affair, with 42% inclined to believe the allegations and 38% disbelieving them. That division is close to the 44%-33% division found last weekend. Only 17% say they “definitely” believe Clinton’s version (up from 13% last weekend).

If the allegation of an affair does prove true, 21% said they believe Clinton should be impeached while 12% said he should resign, and 62% said neither.

When asked about a second allegation, which the public views as more serious--that Clinton urged Lewinsky to lie under oath about the affair--38% said they believe it, 45% said no, compared with a 42%-44% split last weekend.

If Clinton did try to obstruct justice by urging Lewinsky to lie, 57% said he should be impeached, 8% said he should resign and 29% said neither.

If the evidence shows that Clinton lied, but did not urge Lewinsky to lie, 41% said he should be impeached, 10% said he should resign and 42% said neither.

But in judging those possibilities, the public appears to give Clinton a strong benefit of the doubt. When asked whom they would believe if the case eventually develops into a “he said, she said” contest between Clinton and Lewinsky, 56% said Clinton, 29% Lewinsky.

Americans are also sharply divided on whether they view the allegations as important or not--47% said yes, 51% no.

Only 6% believed the allegations will “destroy” Clinton’s ability to lead,” and 34% thought they will diminish it. The majority, 56%, said they expect the allegations to subside.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Times Poll

Job Approval

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?

Disapprove:

Now: 29%

Approve:

Now: 68%

Whom would you believe if there is no conclusive evidence one way or the other?

Clinton: 56%

Lewinsky: 29%

Don’t know / neither: 15%

Source: Los Angeles Times poll

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The Times Poll

Clinton’s Rating

Americans tuned into President Clinton’s State of the Union address and liked what they heard. The speech bolstered Clinton’s job-approval and personal-favorability ratings.

The results also indicate that Americans who heard his speech were able to put aside thoughts of the allegations.

What is your impression of Clinton? Is it...

*--*

Now Jan. 24, 1997 Sept. 1997 Favorable 57% 48% 59% Unfavorable 36 45 35 Don’t know 7 7 6

*--*

*

Do you think Clinton had an affair with Moica S. Lewinsky?

*--*

Now Jan. 24, 1998 Yes 42% 44% No 38 33 Don’t know 20 23

*--*

*

Before Lewinsky, did you think Clinton had engaged in extramarital affairs?

Yes: 56%

No: 24%

Don’t know: 20%

Which statement comes closer to your opinion?

Clinton is amoral: 26%

Clinton is a decent person with some character flaws.: 70%

Neither / Don’t know: 4%

*

How do you rate the president’s speech?

Excellent: 34%

Good: 41%

Fair / poor: 23%

*

Were you distracted by thoughts of the allegations or not?

Distracted: 30%

Not distracted: 67%

*

Times Poll data can also be accessed on the WorldWide Web at https://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLLS/

Source: Los Angeles Times poll

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Los Angeles Times Poll contacted 1,314 adults nationwide by telephone Jan. 29-31 . Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the nation. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and region. The margin of sampling error for all adults is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for certain subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by other factors, such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% when some answer categories are not shown.