What Happens When Hits Leave the Air?

NBC isn’t happy about “Seinfeld” coming to an end, but executives aren’t approaching the show’s departure as if it represents the end of the world either.

Based on television history, they’re probably right.

Perhaps the two best recent examples of a comedy series leaving the stage when the audience clearly appeared to want more are CBS’ “MASH” and NBC’s “Cheers,” whose departures occurred in 1983 and 1993, respectively.

Both experiences would seem to support the contention that suddenly being deprived of one show won’t undermine an entire prime-time schedule, with neither of the networks involved suffering any immediate ill effects.

In both instances, programmers sought to pick up the slack with spinoff series--something the supporting players on “Seinfeld” have ruled out as an option--a strategy that has yielded mixed results over the years.

“Frasier,” spun out from “Cheers,” represents a best-case scenario. The show has become a major success, anchoring NBC’s successful expansion of its “Must-See TV” franchise to Tuesday night and winning four consecutive Emmy awards as best comedy series.

CBS wasn’t quite so lucky with “AfterMASH,” which featured three of the original’s stars (Harry Morgan, Jamie Farr and William Christopher) returning from Korea and working together at a Veterans Administration hospital. The show was canceled after a little more than a year.

CBS had dominated prime time four consecutive years when “MASH’s” helicopter at last flew toward the horizon in what remains the highest-rated entertainment program in television history, with a little more than 60% of all U.S. homes tuning in for the finale. The network remained No. 1 for two more seasons, until NBC’s “The Cosby Show” changed prime time’s balance of power.

“Our overall schedule was pretty strong,” recalled Bud Grant, who oversaw CBS’ entertainment division during the early 1980s and now heads his own production company, Third Coast Entertainment.

CBS had several popular programs to sustain the network, including “Dallas,” “60 Minutes,” “Simon & Simon” and “Magnum P.I.” Yet Grant acknowledged that no matter how well the cupboard’s stocked, programmers hate to see any hit series go.

“Obviously, when you lose a show as strong as ‘MASH’ or ‘Seinfeld,’ that is a blow, and not only a ratings blow,” he said. “We lost both ratings and prestige.”

By contrast, when Ted Danson announced “Cheers’ ” last call, NBC was the No. 3 network in prime time, still reeling from programming misfires and an inability to supplant aging hits “The Cosby Show” and “The Golden Girls,” which had helped carry the network.

Even before Danson dropped his bomb, NBC realized that “A Different World” couldn’t fill “Cosby’s” shoes Thursday nights and that “Here and Now”--an effort to keep the show alive on another front, with a sitcom starring former “Cosby” kid Malcolm Jamal-Warner--was going down in flames Saturdays.

Once the panic subsided, NBC began showcasing “Seinfeld” Thursdays after “Cheers.” That fall, the network seamlessly shifted “Seinfeld” into its current slot, leading into “Frasier.” NBC’s recovery began in earnest the next season, when the network introduced “ER” and “Friends,” coming full circle the following year in an unprecedented third-to-first place turnaround.

Anticipating the press’ frenzied reaction to “Seinfeld’s” leave-taking, NBC has provided reporters a breakdown of the network’s fortunes now compared to 1993. Back then, NBC possessed only three of the Top 20 programs (“Cheers” ranked the highest at No. 8), compared to eight Top 20 shows today, including TV’s four highest-rated series.

The most jarring aspect of the “Seinfeld” exit is that the series remains insanely popular, drawing more viewers (nearly 32 million a week) than any program except Thursday running mate “ER.”

Few other long-running shows have left while still near such a plateau. “The Cosby Show,” by way of comparison, topped the ratings for several years but slid to No. 18 before going off the air in 1992. “Roseanne,” which ranked no worse than fourth in its first six seasons, sank to No. 35 last year.

Even “Bonanza”--a Top 5 show for nine consecutive seasons--was depleted by cast changes and fired Nielsen blanks at the end, slipping out of the Top 25.

Of course, when the Cartwright clan rode into the sunset 25 years ago, most homes didn’t receive 45 channels, as they do today. NBC’s own research piece included a sobering note: a 60% increase in the number of cable channels--with more than 260 available--since 1993.

In a nutshell, that means that if NBC falters next season, people will have plenty of alternatives.

Despite that competitive environment, NBC Entertainment President Warren Littlefield--who also faced the challenge of replacing “Cheers”--seemed to paraphrase an oft-quoted political line by saying, in effect, that NBC feels better off now than it was five years ago.

“We do have choices,” he said, “and I think that’s the difference.”

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Also Inside: Syndication rights for “Seinfeld” reruns are expected to skyrocket. F5