The Pull of the Center : Voters Shift Sides to Be in the Action

Did the state’s new open primary, which allows all registered voters to cast ballots for any candidate of any party, make a difference? At first glance, it didn’t. The winners of the gubernatorial primary were the same kind of victors that the old, closed primary routinely crowned. Republican Dan Lungren’s victory follows the GOP tradition of honoring seniority in choosing gubernatorial nominees. Democrat Gray Davis put together his win by stitching together traditional Democratic constituencies. The party activists--conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats--who drove turnout and determined victors in those bad, old, closed-primary days continued to predominate. So, not much changed Tuesday, right?

Davis clearly was helped and Lungren hurt by the perception that Davis “won,” with nearly 35% of the total primary vote, while Lungren finished second. Such a comparison would not have made much sense in a closed primary system. “Now,” says GOP political consultant Thomas C. Shepard, who ran the 1996 campaign for an open primary, “the perception that Lungren is exceptionally vulnerable is right there in front of you.”

A cursory pass at the numbers, however, reveals more interesting dynamics, and those dynamics are not good news for party solidarity in California. (In interpreting the results, it’s helpful to know that the most recent registration figures from the secretary of state’s office show that about 47% of Californians are registered Democrats and 36% are Republicans. The Times exit poll identified the party registration of primary voters as 48% Democratic, 40% Republican.)

There was cross-over voting. Some California Republicans voted for a candidate of another party up and down the ballot. Lungren’s 34% vote total was two points below Republican registration and six points below estimated GOP turnout. According to The Times exit poll, one of four GOP voters supported a Democrat in the gubernatorial primary.

Conversely, Republican candidates garnered 48% of the vote in the U.S. Senate primary, fully 12 points above the party’s registration and 8% higher than GOP turnout. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer’s vote total dipped four points below her party’s registration. According to The Times poll, nearly a quarter of Democratic primary voters deserted Boxer for other candidates.

In district-level races for legislative and congressional seats, the cross-over numbers are more striking. Republican analyst Tony Quinn, an authority on California election trends and political demographics, looked at six open Assembly seats to discern any cross-over voting. It occurred in every one.

The 49th Assembly District, ranging from East Los Angeles into the San Gabriel Valley, is a Democratic stronghold; registration is 59% Democrat, 23% Republican. The last time the seat was vacant, in 1992, the closed-primary, two-party vote was 70% Democrat, 30% Republican. In this year’s open primary, Judy Chu, an Asian American and Monterey Park councilwoman, ran a strong campaign against Gloria Romero, the ultimate Democratic winner; the two-party vote breakdown was 90% Democrat, 10% GOP. According to Quinn, one of every two Republicans who cast ballots voted Democratic.

The 75th Assembly District, in eastern San Diego County, is solidly Republican, with a registration of 30% Democrat, 51% GOP. In 1992, when the seat last was vacant, the two-party, closed-primary vote was 31% Democratic, 69% Republican. In this year’s open primary, two male conservatives and a moderate, pro-choice Latina (with some union support) battled for the Republican nomination. The major-party vote broke down roughly 20% Democratic, 80% Republican.

The moderate woman, Charlene Zettel, won. According to Shepard, who ran the campaign of one of the male candidates, “In the past, a moderate woman [would be] at a significant disadvantage, in part from a tendency for elections to be dominated by ideology.” Zettel, he said, drew “substantial” support from Democratic cross-overs.

The 53rd Assembly District, in the South Bay, is a battleground for both major parties. It is described by the California Journal as a “Republican-leaning but independent-minded coastal district.” Registration is 42% Democratic, 40% Republican.

In 1992’s closed primary, the two-party vote was 44% Democratic, 56% Republican. This year, with Democratic incumbent Debra Bowen termed-out, the seat is again up for grabs. Seven Democrats engaged in a spirited June contest; one Republican ran unopposed for his party’s nomination. The primary vote broke 66% Democratic, 34% Republican.

Quinn concluded that cross-over voting occurred “in a number of districts, where either all the action was in one party’s primary, or the seat was safe for the dominant party.” He believes that it is in safe legislative seats “where the open primary will really make a difference.”

Another election with cross-over implications occurred in the 3rd Congressional District. Represented for two decades by retiring Democratic Rep. Vic Fazio, it has became increasingly rural and conservative since the 1990 reapportionment. Current voter registration is 44% Democrat, 40% Republican. Sandie Dunn, an attorney backed by Fazio, easily won the Democratic nomination, in a low-key campaign against three underfunded opponents. The total vote for Democratic candidates was only 38%--six points below party registration.

Conservative Assemblywoman Barbara Alby probably would have won the GOP nomination hands-down in a closed primary, but was beaten in this year’s open contest by moderate businessman Doug Ose. The Republican race pulled 58% of the total vote, with Ose garnering 30%, nearly as much as all the Democratic candidates combined.

Democrats clearly crossed party lines to vote for a moderate Republican in a swing district where Alby, a right-winger, might have been a weaker candidate against Dunn. Why?

The open-primary races in districts like the 3rd Congressional District and the 75th Assembly District--and the top-of-ticket shifts in voter allegiance--highlight the fragility of party affiliation in California. Shepard believes “that dynamic previously existed, but didn’t have an outlet before.”

There are indications that Californians are less rigidly partisan than the closed primary system forced them to be, and given the freedom of an open primary, they will choose to engage in the fight that counts. In race after race, where there was a contest on one side, and no real nomination battle on the other, the balance of raw votes tended to be on the contested side. Voters seem to want to play where the action is, regardless of party affiliation.

That means California voters have been paying attention. For candidates and parties, this could be the most important lesson of last Tuesday’s election.