A New Season: Prepare Triage

Folks who don’t interrupt phone conversations by shouting, “I’ll call back, I’m driving into the canyon!,” have little reason to fret about who emerges victorious from the upcoming television season.

Whether NBC retains its No. 1 status or ABC claws out of third place rightfully concerns only a few people, most with offices in New York, Century City, Burbank and on Fairfax near Canter’s delicatessen. To the average TV viewer, the most pressing question the new season presents is if there’s something new worth watching.

Still, the horse race aspect of the season bears monitoring because, first, it’s fun, and more significantly, who and what wins greatly influences what people see.

This is because the networks--despite spending millions on research--often wind up taking their lead from what appears to work at any moment in time. If “Ally McBeal” becomes a hit and media darling, as that Fox show did last year, brace yourself for more short-skirted women dancing with babies.

Handicapping the TV season that begins Monday, then, not only affords us some insight as to which network’s executives might be shopping for new office furniture but also provides clues as to what will happen for years to come.

Unfortunately, trying to predict what will light the public’s fire makes it increasingly clear that sure things no longer exist.

Take “Jesse,” a new NBC comedy starring “Married . . . With Children’s” Christina Applegate, which will air Thursdays sandwiched between “Friends” and “Frasier.” Such a show possesses an obvious edge in getting people to try it, but today even programs blessed with such advantages are as vulnerable as the flick of a remote control. Just ask “Union Square”--the defunct sitcom that occupied the same half-hour a year ago.

Of 36 prime-time shows introduced last fall, six lived to see a second year. Three dozen more will be thrust onto the grill before November, and there’s no reason to believe the attrition rate will be lower.

In the crush to assess new shows, however, people often overlook where seasons are truly won and lost: the performance of returning series in key time slots. Each season breaks down to such matchups, with networks approaching schedule-setting like a military operation--hoping to gain ground with their limited forces on one front without sacrificing too much on others.

NBC’s “Just Shoot Me,” for example, blossomed into a hit last year and will now fill “Frasier’s” shoes on Tuesdays, opposite ABC’s “Spin City.” Similarly, “Everybody Loves Raymond” challenges “Ally” at 9 p.m. Mondays, hoping to breathe life into a night that has withered, with “Cosby” throwing off some sparks but having failed to ignite the fire for which CBS extravagantly paid.

Too cowardly to gaze into a crystal ball alone, two advertising executives have been drafted to help: Tim Spengler, senior vice president and general manager at media-buying firm Western International Media; and Chuck Bachrach, who tracks TV programming for Rubin Postaer & Associates. The following questions, burning or otherwise, will determine who has a good year and who swigs Maalox right out of the bottle.

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* Tuesday: So what happens on the week’s toughest night?

Fox hopes “King of the Hill” can establish a beachhead here, but even on its rickety old legs, “Home Improvement” looks like the winner at 8 p.m., with “Mad About You” and “JAG” in hot pursuit.

The 9 o’clock hour, meanwhile, remains a crap shoot, with “Just Shoot Me” looking like the program to beat against “Spin City,” a CBS movie and three new drama series.

“That’s a show people will try to find,” Spengler said regarding “Just Shoot Me.” “That’s one that may change some people’s personal viewing schedules.”

The same time period will also play host to the WB’s college-set drama “Felicity,” the year’s most critically hyped newcomer, a distinction that hasn’t saved “Nothing Sacred,” “EZ Streets” or “Relativity” in recent years. Bachrach sees “Felicity” connecting with the WB’s young core audience but having minimal impact on “Just Shoot Me” and companion “Working,” also his choice to win that hour.

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* Wednesday: Can “Dawson’s Creek” put “Beverly Hills, 90210” out to pasture?

“Dawson’s” almost instantly became television’s most popular show among teenagers, an audience that flocked to “90210’s” ZIP Code during the Bush administration, when the characters were still in high school. Having “Dawson’s” invade the 8 p.m. hour, then, “has to take some of the teen audience away, while ‘90210’ will take some young adults from it,” Spengler said. “There’ll be some cannibalization, definitely.”

The biggest slice of the pie, actually, should belong to ABC’s “Dharma & Greg,” one reason Wednesday again figures to be the best reason ABC executives have to get out of bed each week.

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* Thursday: Can NBC endure the loss of “Seinfeld”?

It helps that no one challenged NBC, leaving the playing field clear for “Frasier,” still surrounded by “Friends” and “ER.” Even losing 10% of NBC’s Thursday audience from last year will leave the network in a position of dominance.

“There will be some drop, but [putting “Frasier” there] is the best move they could have made,” Bachrach noted.

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* Sunday: Will “The Practice” thrive in its latest office space?

This Emmy-winning drama has already survived multiple time slot moves. Now, ABC has shelved its 9 p.m. movie for the first time in more than 30 years to air “20/20” and “The Practice” against movies on CBS--which performed extremely well with them last season--and NBC.

Even so-so ratings for “The Practice” would represent a gain versus ABC’s dismal Sunday results last season with a second movie after “The Wonderful World of Disney.” The most interesting question is whether ABC can inspire viewers of Fox’s “The X-Files” to channel-surf over at 10 o’clock, as opposed to watching local news or joining a movie in progress--a nifty idea that has seldom panned out in the past.

“It’s a big gamble, dropping the movie, but with the right promotion ‘The Practice’ can work,” Bachrach said. “That’s a key show in their quiver.”

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* The whole week: How much news is too much news?

“Dateline NBC” is now up to five editions per week, stealing hours once allocated to dramatic series. CBS Television President Leslie Moonves has quipped that the NBC newsmagazine is “spreading.”

If so, ABC and CBS have caught the same virus, with three installments of “20/20” this fall and a second edition of “60 Minutes” planned for midseason. Thanks to the Clinton administration, no one should lack for material any time soon.

“Dateline” has become a vital component of NBC’s success by shoring up weak spots in its lineup. Given the reliability of news shows, there’s seemingly room for one in every prime-time hour; in fact, the just-added “Fox Files” brings the total to 11, meaning the four networks are halfway there.

Can anything else be forecast with a measure of certainty? NBC should be No. 1 in the ratings for the fourth straight year, albeit by a narrower margin; Fox, benefiting from airing the Super Bowl and World Series, should be second in the young-adult demographics that advertisers crave; and many shows will be canceled before most people have heard of them.

Beyond that, the crystal ball’s reception gets fuzzy. We must be heading into the canyon.