Party Support Could Save Clinton

By RONALD BROWNSTEIN

Sept. 15, 1998 12 AM PT

TIMES POLITICAL WRITER

WASHINGTON —

In the capital, Democratic officeholders are scattered and conflicted over how to respond to the scandal now threatening to consume Bill Clinton’s presidency.

But the latest polls show that around the country, rank-and-file Democrats are surprisingly unified--not in endorsing Clinton’s conduct but in resisting any action that might force him from office.

Indeed, while partisan lines are hardening on both sides, Democratic voters actually are more unified in their views about the scandal than Republican voters, according to polls conducted last weekend by The Times and other news organizations.

That dynamic could cast a long shadow over the congressional debate about the president’s future. White House officials had worried that the release of independent counsel Kenneth W. Starr’s report might undercut Clinton’s support among the party faithful, triggering an exodus of Democratic officeholders. Instead, the report appears to have accelerated and solidified a party-line polarization in public reaction to the scandal, with Democratic voters showing virtually no inclination to desert the president and Republican voters, though more divided, increasingly critical of him.

The rising demands for action against Clinton from the Republican base could make it more difficult for the GOP to quickly accede to any sort of “plea bargain,” such as a vote to censure the president. And, although Democratic officials and candidates have stampeded to criticize Clinton during the last month, his continued support from the party base ultimately could increase pressure on most party officeholders to resist his removal.

“If these numbers hold, I think Democrats will decide they don’t have to vote to impeach, they don’t have to call on him to resign, they can just get away with arguing for a vote for censure,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff. Many Democrats also believe that much of the party soon will coalesce around a demand for a quick censure vote to end the controversy.

A series of questions in The Times Poll and other surveys suggests that the release of the Starr report--and the overall sharpening of the debate over whether Clinton should remain in office--is causing Democratic partisans to intensify their defense of his presidency, if not necessarily of his conduct. In The Times Poll, conducted Sunday, more than 90% of Democrats said that they intend to vote for Democratic candidates in the November election--a slightly higher level of party loyalty than evident among Republicans.

“For Democratic voters, you really are getting down to that basic question now, and there is near unanimity that they want him as president,” said Democratic pollster Guy Molyneux.

Still, McInturff noted, the scandal may have its largest effect this fall not by driving Democratic voters to Republican candidates but by persuading Democrats to simply stay home out of disgust. (That’s what happened during the GOP landslide in 1994.)

The unanswered question is whether any serious move to begin impeachment proceedings might change that pattern by inspiring a backlash among Democrats. What’s clear already is that on most major questions the extent of rank-and-file Democratic support for Clinton is greater than rank-and-file Republican opposition to him.

In The Times Poll, for example, 58% of Republicans said that Clinton should resign, a figure large enough to pressure party leaders to maintain a hard line on the controversy. But, an even larger percentage of Democrats (83%) said that Clinton should not quit. A Gallup Poll Sunday found a similar gap.

On the question of whether Congress should impeach Clinton, the party gap is even more pronounced. Support for impeachment among Republicans was up to 34% in The Times Poll. But 90% of Democrats believe that Congress should either censure Clinton (32%) or drop the matter entirely (58%), rather than impeach the president (which just 6% support). And while 80% of Democrats in The Times Poll approve of Clinton’s job performance, just 54% of Republicans disapprove.

That rank-and-file support extends only so far. In The Times Poll, a narrow majority of Democrats said that they do not believe Clinton shares their moral values. Likewise, a narrow majority said that they believe Clinton committed perjury.

But, even with those specific negative verdicts, Clinton’s general support remains substantial across the breadth of his party. According to The Times Poll, even Democrats who don’t consider themselves liberal are nearly unanimous in opposition to resignation: 83% oppose it and 14% want him to quit.

While numbers such as those may buttress Clinton’s support among Democratic legislators, they probably would not be enough to prevent more defections, particularly among Democrats from swing seats, if other centrist voters turn against him, said one senior House congressional aide. “He is still in big trouble, but he has stabilized [among House Democrats],” the aide said. “It will all depend on what the people in marginal districts are saying.”

President Nixon offers an instructive parallel. Nixon never entirely lost his base either. In Gallup polling just days before his resignation in August 1974, nearly three-fifths of Republicans continued to say that the charges against him were insufficient to justify his removal from office. But a majority of independents and more than 70% of Democrats found the accusations sufficient grounds for impeachment.

In sharp contrast, Clinton so far is holding the center of public opinion. While support for his removal among conservative Republicans has reached the level of opposition to Nixon among Democrats, more than 60% of independents continue to oppose Clinton’s resignation, and even half of moderate Republicans believe that he should not quit.

In fact, on all the major questions affecting Clinton, the key difference between the parties now is that moderate Democrats are virtually as supportive of Clinton as liberal Democrats, while moderate Republicans are much less hostile to the president than conservatives in their party. Holding those centrist voters could be crucial to Clinton’s prospects of swaying the decisive electorate in the impeachment debate: the moderate legislators in both parties who likely will hold his fate in their hands.

* NARROWING OPTIONS: Most extreme options for Clinton--impeachment or nothing--are looking less likely. A18

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

The House Panel

The members of the House Judiciary Committee, in order of seniority on the panel:

Henry J. Hyde (R-Ill.) chairman

John Conyers, Jr. (D-Mich.) ranking minority member

REPUBLICANS

F. James Sensenbrenner, Wis.

Bill McCollum, Fla.

George W. Gekas, Pa.

Howard Coble, N.C.

Lamar S. Smith, Texas