Jobless Rate Rises Due to Farm Layoffs

Seasonal layoffs in farm labor nudged the Ventura County unemployment figures up a fraction of a percent last month, but strong growth this year over last in construction and manufacturing kept the county rate at a historic low for the month of November.

According to a report released Friday by the state’s Employment Development Department, the county’s unemployment rate was 4.8% for November, up from last month’s 4.5%, but still extremely low. The unemployment rate was at 6% in November 1998.

Ventura County was the only county in the state that saw a rise in unemployment. The increase was blamed squarely on the agricultural layoffs, a reflection of the significance of farming to the region.

“Basically, the county broke ranks,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. “Other major areas were down over the month. But, there’s still been a major improvement in Ventura County over a year ago.”

Overall, the growth rate was 2.6% higher than last year, a slowdown from the last few months, which still reflects fiscal health in a county where many employers are desperately searching for workers.

“These seasonal effects are just so very typical,” said department labor market analyst Dee Johnson. “And we’re still seeing one of the lowest unemployment rates ever.”

There hasn’t been a lower unemployment rate for November in the 15 years the department has been studying the county, Johnson said.

About 379,400 Ventura County residents were employed last month, up from 368,000 in the previous year.

The county lost 3,400 farm jobs in November, down 20.9%, a number that closely reflects previous years in which layoffs between October and November vary from about 2,500 to 4,000. Additionally, the government sector lost about 100 jobs, as did computer manufacturing. Business services was down about 300 jobs.

The bulk of growth was in retail, where new jobs were up about 8.5% from last month, as retailers began hiring for the holiday season. Local schools added about 800 new jobs, a 4% increase from October.

Ventura County is still seeing healthy growth in aerospace and technology, unlike other counties, because the focus here is on emerging technologies, Kyser said. And although the construction industry lost 200 jobs from the month before, it is still one of the strongest growth areas in the county, with 13% more jobs than in November 1998.

A slower job growth rate came as no surprise to analysts, who foresee more cooling in the early months of 2000 after a possible interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

“We’re expecting slower growth next year,” Kyser said. “We’re keeping our eye on consumers. Debt levels are high, so we’re wondering: Is the consumer going to keep spending, or will they pull back after the first of the year?”

On the other hand, the rebound of the Asian economy suggests solid growth of international trade, and probably more smooth sailing ahead.

The slow, steady economy “is sort of boring,” Kyser said. “But, boring is nice.”