Feinstein May Face Anything but a Coronation

‘This one’s going to be a cakewalk for Dianne,” predicted one political observer after entrepreneur Ron K. Unz announced he was quitting the race for the GOP Senate nomination. Don’t be too sure.

Yes, multimillionaire Unz, known for his longshot primary challenge to incumbent Gov. Pete Wilson in 1994 and various initiative forays, would have brought deep pockets to the race. Mike Huffington, as an unknown congressman, used his wealth to win the 1994 Senate primary. The GOP rookie went on to spend about $30 million of his own money to come within a hair of defeating Feinstein.

With Unz’s exit, Rep. Tom Campbell (R-San Jose) becomes the front-runner for the Senate nomination. He will likely face three unknown and far more conservative candidates: state Sen. Ray Haynes (R-Riverside), San Diego Supervisor Bill Horn and J.P. Gough, an Orange County businessman. It’s unlikely these guys can amass the resources to nail Campbell in the primary.

Moreover, supporters of Republican presidential front-runner George W. Bush are likely to root for Campbell, because Campbell would give a more moderate cast to the GOP ticket in California. Observed one party strategist, “If you look at [Campbell’s] record, he’s the epitome of the new California voter: a fiscal conservative who is a social libertarian.”

Campbell’s front-runner status in the GOP race owes something to his successful 1996 drive to establish California’s blanket primary. Championed by Campbell after narrowly losing the 1992 GOP Senate primary to Bruce Herschensohn, a conservative commentator, the new rules allow voters, regardless of political affiliation, to vote for any candidate running for any party’s nomination. That makes the GOP primary more hospitable to moderate candidates, who have long found it difficult to beat the party’s committed conservative base in closed primaries.

According to the Associated Press, polls show that crossovers account for about 25% of the primary vote, and most describe themselves as moderates. If these voters are comfortable voting once for Campbell, might they do it again in November?

The blanket primary is shaping up as a mini-general election because it’s no longer enough to win a party’s nomination. A nominee can gain post-primary strength by finishing first among all comers, or, conversely, look weak otherwise. That could prove particularly dicey for Feinstein, who doesn’t have a primary contest with which to tempt voters.

Early takes have Feinstein winning the general election. She’s the incumbent; she’s raising money. She has far greater name recognition than Campbell, and her approval ratings are high. A recent Field Poll, taken before Campbell declared, showed Feinstein leading the congressman in a head-to-head matchup, 55% to 30%, with 15% undecided.

But a closer examination indicates a spirited contest. Both Feinstein and Campbell are moderates; their stances on such issues as abortion rights and gun control are close to the California general electorate and to women voters, who comprise a majority of the electorate. A dramatic gender gap in Feinstein’s favor is not axiomatic.

Neither lawmaker has been tabbed a team player. Campbell broke ranks to vote against Newt Gingrich’s reelection as speaker of the House, which boosted Campbell in his district and helped inoculate him against the Newt-backlash threatening some Republicans.

Feinstein, who has a prickly reputation in the Senate, has opposed the Clinton administration on several issues, including trade and foreign policy; she broke Democratic ranks to condemn the president’s behavior in the Monica S. Lewinsky scandal.

Early on, speculation was that Campbell’s vote in favor of impeaching the president would sink him politically. But if recent soundings are any indication, in a statewide campaign, impeachment could wind up more of a problem for Vice President Al Gore than for Campbell.

Feinstein’s criticism of Clinton’s conduct could help to inoculate her against Clinton fatigue, if the latter is a factor. But what if voters rebel against all things Washington, as Gore’s troubles and the outsider strategies of Bush, former Sen. Bill Bradley and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) seem to indicate? That could prove far more dangerous to the well-known senior senator from California than to Campbell, who is less identified with the inside-the-Beltway crowd.

Raising money is not Feinstein’s favorite thing. She’s had to go to her personal and political fund-raising well to finance three primaries and two hard-fought general elections over the past seven years. In contrast, Campbell brings his own fund-raising base, including a high-powered network of Silicon Valley donors. According to a recent Associated Press account, Campbell has already raised more than $1.1 million. Feinstein was reported to have amassed $2.8 million during the first six months of 1999.

Still, Feinstein is one of California’s most popular politicians. A recent Field Poll showed her job approval rating at 51%. But she was strong at the outset of the 1994 campaign, before Huffington’s negative attacks nearly took her down.

Is Campbell ready to battle the seasoned senator? His recent proposal that government distribute illegal drugs as a means to curb crime is startling in its political naivete. And Feinstein lost no time in calling it “unacceptable.”

The top of the ticket will likely have an impact on the Senate race, if only because it will drive turnout. If the level of enthusiasm is high in the GOP, that could hurt Feinstein. Beleaguered California Republicans seem fixated on survival, which could energize their efforts.

The national Democratic Party will have to target California: The state is a linchpin of its presidential strategy and key to regaining the U.S. House majority. That should work to Feinstein’s advantage. But don’t bet Republicans won’t have learned from their California kiss-offs of 1992 and 1996. They’re likely to pay attention, too.

If Feinstein is planning to rely on a Rose Garden strategy, it won’t work. Californians don’t anoint anybody to anything. Ask Kathleen Brown, who viewed the governorship almost as an inheritance--and lost. Or Gov. Gray Davis, who came from behind to win, despite his early dismissal by the media as “road kill.” This election season, voters appear to want their candidates to reach out and touch them.

Politically, a lot can happen between now and the March primary, and more before November 2000 rolls around. But early signs indicate what looked to be a snoozer of a U.S. Senate contest could turn out to be a more competitive race than pundits suppose or than Feinstein would like it to be.