O.C. Minority Population Growth Soars

Orange County’s minority population grew by more than one-third from 1990 to 1998, outpacing comparable state figures, according to a U.S. Census report released today.

Meanwhile, the white population declined slightly--by 0.5% in Orange County and more than 3% in California--over those eight years, the report estimates. But for the first time since the deep recession of the early 1990s, whites are once again migrating into California, mirroring a well established trend among other ethnic groups.

The five-year “white flight” from the state began to slow in 1997 and had reversed by 1998, when an estimated 32,000 more whites lived in California than the year before, the census report showed.

The reversal has not yet reached Los Angeles County, the state’s most populous. Total white population has dropped every year this decade, slipping from a high of 3,611,000 people in 1990 to 3,112,000 in the 1998 census figures, a 13.8% decrease.

Some demographers and economists said the population trend is another indication that California is regaining its place as a magnet for highly educated, more affluent workers, many of whom are white.

“The recovery and economic expansion is making California, once again, attractive to workers from around the country, of all races,” said Ted Gibson, chief economist for the state Department of Finance.

From 1991 until 1996, the white population of the state dropped by about 615,000, to a low of 16,478,000. While the number of births among whites dropped somewhat in those years, the white population decline was due primarily to families moving out, in particular to other Western states--Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Oregon and Colorado.

“There is some good evidence that what we lost in the early-to-mid-1990s was a lot of people in the defense industry and that there were also a lot of retired people who sought retirement in other states where they could live more cheaply,” said Tom Lieser, executive director of the UCLA Anderson Business Forecast.

As the decade draws to a close, however, California again has a net gain in its exchange of residents with 17 states--including New York, Illinois, Hawaii, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Ohio, said William H. Frey, a demographer with the Milken Institute in Santa Monica.

Because the tax and Social Security records, in particular, are incomplete or flawed, demographers continually tinker with the ethnic and race estimates. Figures for 1999 will not be released until next summer.

Experts at the state Department of Finance also believe that the number of white residents began to rebound in 1997, well after the economic recovery had begun.

“It takes people awhile to make those movement decisions,” said Linda Gage, chief of the finance department’s demographic research unit. “It takes time for people to figure out that things have changed, to sell a house, get children out of school. . . . There can be a lag of nine to 18 months before people move.”

White flight from California has been a relatively modest population trend, compared to the explosive growth in the Latino and Asian populations. Driven by higher birth rates and immigration, the number of Latinos in California has increased more than 30% this decade to 10.1 million. The number of Asians and Pacific Islanders has jumped nearly a third during the decade, to 3.9 million.

Orange County’s minority population grew 35% from 1990 to 1998, compared to 32% statewide. The Asian American population surged 43% and Hispanic population grew 37% in Orange County.

Other large counties saw even larger increases. In Riverside County, for example, the number of Hispanics grew by 59% and the Asian population also increased by 59%.

The smallest increases in percentage terms were seen in Los Angeles County, which saw increases of 20% for Hispanics and 24% for Asians.

The modest recovery seen in the white population will not reverse California’s metamorphosis into a “majority minority” state by 2005, experts said.

The increase in white immigration represents “a drop in the bucket,” compared to the growth of the state’s minority populations, said Jorge Sanchez, a demographer with the Orange Coast Community College District. “What we’re looking at is that the white population is holding its own where the rest are growing.”

The trend is “not throwing off the need for bilingual education, the need to have bilingual and trilingual social workers and the need for diversity in teachers in our kindergarten classes,” he said.

Changing Picture

A new U.S. Census report shows that Orange County’s population--particularly Asians and Hispanics--surged from 1990 to 1998, outpacing state growth rates.

Orange County

Race (1998 total)

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Change 1998 % of Pop White 1,548,985 -0.5% Hispanic 746,009 37.4 Asian-Pacific Islander 361,199 42.9 Black 49,977 12.3 American Indian 15,531 12.4 Total 2,721,701 12.9 California White 16,511,020 -3.2% Hispanic 9,453,667 31.6 Asian-Pacific Islander 3,937,722 33.6 Black 2,455,570 6.6 American Indian 308,571 8.2 Total 32,666,550 9.7

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Note: A small number of Hispanic residents are counted in non-white racial categories.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau