How McCain Might Take California

SACRAMENTO —  Now that he has survived the GOP gantlet and made it to California, what does Sen. John McCain do next? To use the former Navy pilot’s favorite analogy, how does Luke Skywalker again get out of Death Star?

He’ll need all his skill and a flawless strategy.

A plus for McCain is that California is not South Carolina. The GOP here is not dominated by the religious right. A minus is that California also is not Michigan. Democrats and independents cannot help him win Republican convention delegates.

In McCain’s do-or-die Michigan escape, only 27% of his support came from the GOP. By contrast, 72% of Gov. George W. Bush’s votes were cast by Republicans.

So clearly, McCain’s task in California is to persuade Republican conservatives--who account for two-thirds of the GOP electorate--that he is one of them. Which seems a strange demand, given that McCain by any definition is conservative. He opposes abortion rights and gun control--and favors private school vouchers and tax cuts. He’s for less pork barrel spending and higher defense outlays.

“It’s not like he’s some wacko liberal,” notes GOP consultant Ken Khachigian, a McCain advisor.

But the Arizona senator riled the GOP establishment and its special interest patrons by pushing for campaign finance reform. Advocating tobacco tax hikes also hurt. And “the final nail,” says GOP consultant Sal Russo, who is not involved in the presidential race, was “when he started using Clinton rhetoric--’tax cuts for the rich’ “--to criticize Bush’s tax cut plan.

“He’s got to tack right,” Russo says of McCain. “He’s got a long way to go.”

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There has been speculation that Nancy Reagan may endorse McCain. The Reagans and McCain have been close for three decades, dating back to when the war hero returned home from a POW camp. That clearly would boost McCain’s stock among Republicans, but it’s only wishful thinking.

“Everybody’s been trying for six months,” says veteran GOP consultant Stu Spencer, who was President Reagan’s chief political strategist. “That’s a bad rumor. Her whole role in life is protecting the legacy of Ronald Reagan. And that doesn’t involve getting into rinky-dink campaign minutiae.”

Spencer offers this advice for McCain in California: “If you’re doing well, don’t change what you’re doing.” That means keep pounding on political reform, “but expand it. I’d probably add two good issues and take the Republican position to demonstrate I’m a good Republican.”

What issues? “Education--school choice, charter schools. Maybe health care.”

A recent statewide survey by pollster Mark Baldassare for the Public Policy Institute of California found that education is the No. 2 issue among Republicans, just behind taxes. Health care was No. 3.

That same survey, taken just after McCain’s New Hampshire win, also showed the senator trailing Bush by 22 points among Republicans.

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Here are other issue ideas:

Being an Arizonan and thereby automatically viewed with suspicion by California water warriors, McCain might score points in the Central Valley by promising more federal help in water development.

Trade also is important to California Republicans, especially corporate types who tend to back Bush.

And although he opposed Prop. 187, the anti-illegal immigration measure supported by 78% of GOP voters, McCain undoubtedly would please conservatives by pledging beefed-up border patrols. He also could promise more money to reimburse California for illegal immigrant services. This still is a smoldering issue in California.

Secretary of State Bill Jones, who last week left Bush and endorsed McCain, reports a slight bump in GOP voter registration that could help the senator. Preliminary figures for the March 7 primary show 21,578 new Republicans, an increase of about one-half percent. Jones thinks many of these people signed up to vote for McCain. Meanwhile, there are 91,516 fewer Democrats, but 77,145 more independents.

Jones hasn’t given up trying to convince the national GOP to also count Democrats and independents in allotting California’s 162 delegates. This could wind up in a convention floor fight.

Meanwhile, McCain needs to keep reminding leery Republicans that, based on polls, he has the best chance of beating Vice President Al Gore. GOP consultant Allan Hoffenblum thinks this new McCain line is a winner: “Don’t fear this campaign, my fellow Republicans. Join it.”

Like “Star Wars,” this will be fun to watch. But unlike the flick, nobody can confidently predict the outcome of this battle.