County’s Good Times Are Still on a Roll, Experts Say

Following one of the most prosperous years in decades, the Ventura County economy should roll into 2000 with some of the same gusto but could slow as the year progresses, analysts said.

“Some laws of physics apply here,” said Mark Schniepp, director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project. “The stock market just can’t continue to make the gains that it has.”

Last year showed a combination of strengths not seen since the early 1960s, Schniepp said. The stock market boomed. Consumer spending hit a peak. Inflation and unemployment were low. A revived Asian economy at the end of the year boosted fortunes here.

“The economy [has] never looked like this before,” he said. “We’re calling this the Golden Age.”

In November, the county’s unemployment rate was 4.8%, a historic low for that month, with continued job creation in stable areas such as business services, construction and retail trade.

According to figures through mid-December, residential home sales in Ventura County were up 6.9% in 1999, from 13,374 homes sold in 1998 to 14,292. That was the highest number sold since 1988.

“This was certainly the best year of the decade,” said John Karevoll, an analyst with Acxiom/DataQuick, which compiles the housing statistics. “There’d be no chance of beating 1988, which we’re pretty sure was the peak of all time. But 2000 could be in that category.”

Although the California Assn. of Realtors predicts an 8% drop in sales statewide in 2000, Karevoll sees a strong year ahead, even if an expected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve materializes.

“It’s not a frenzy out there, but it’s strong,” he said. “Those who want to buy are able to buy.”

The commercial real estate market also soared last year as Los Angeles-area businesses increased their marches into Ventura County and local companies expanded. The vacancy rate has remained low across the county, according to a year-end report compiled by local real estate firm CB/Richard Ellis that showed a vacancy rate of 13.7% in the west county and an 8.5% vacancy rate in the Conejo Valley.

“There’s been a tremendous demand for office space,” said Tom Dwyer, an associate at CB/Richard Ellis in Ventura. “It’s exciting. We’re getting a lot of prospective tenants out of L.A. or Silicon Valley.”

Analysts agree that if the economy takes a cooling turn, a diverse mix of business--from software development to farming--should keep the local economy buoyant. And officials from the county’s cities say they expect good times at least for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the city with the bumpiest economy last year was Oxnard, which stumbled in the retail sector--losing Robinsons-May and Sears to its neighbor across the river and watching AutoNation retreat from its giant used-car lot on the Ventura Freeway. But city officials call the AutoNation property desirable and say that 1999 was a strong year for industry, with the arrival of a BMW testing center and RayPak Inc., which manufactures spa and pool heaters.

“I’m very positive about the year ahead,” said Steve Kinney, president of the Oxnard Economic Development Corp. “Clearly the trouble area for the city economy is in the retail district. We’ll be spending a little more time feeding the retail side.”

The biggest challenge for the coming year may be the tight labor supply, city officials said.

“That’s a change over the last couple of years,” Kinney said. “It’s a positive, but the flip side is that it’s more of a challenge to bring new business to the area.”

City officials predict further expansion of what has come to be called the 101 Corridor: high-tech firms moving from Los Angeles to sites along the Ventura Freeway, primarily between Thousand Oaks and Camarillo.

“The job’s not done,” said Gary Wartik, manager of economic development for the city of Thousand Oaks. “But it’s our feeling that, during the next several years, we’ll be attracting biotech and high-tech firms to the area. It certainly bodes well for the economies of our communities.”

Although economists warn that the good times can’t last forever and predict that a stock market correction or potential interest rate hike to slow inflation would probably slow the economy, they acknowledge there’s no sure way of telling where the economy is headed.

“Economists in general are very uncertain,” Schniepp said. “It’s difficult right now to predict what will go on in 2000. We thought 1999 would be a slowdown. We were all pretty wrong.”