Prop. 22, Bush-McCain Matchup Bring County Voters Out in Force

Motivated by a presidential maverick and a divisive moral issue, Ventura County voters turned out in extraordinary numbers to reaffirm their independence and conservatism and to show again that they are tight with their money and tough on crime.

This county’s voters, more than the rest of California, on Tuesday backed Republicans, embraced a ban on gay marriages, imposed tough sanctions on violent juveniles and rejected a measure to make it easier to increase property taxes to build new schools.

And as they did for Ross Perot in 1992, county voters embraced the candidacy of an anti-establishment rebel, John McCain. While all Californians gave McCain 23% of the vote, 27% of Ventura County voters backed him.

“It is the year of the independent,” said Steve Frank of Simi Valley, a conservative Republican campaign analyst. “McCain brought out hard-core conservative Republicans and independents who would not have voted otherwise. He created the turnout we saw yesterday.”

Frank said Proposition 22, which requires the state to only recognize marriages between men and women, also pulled many voters who would have stayed home had they not been urged by their churches to support the measure.

The local result was a 47% turnout by Republicans and 39% by Democrats, a much greater edge than Republicans have in registration. Those numbers will change as 17,800 late absentee and 3,200 damaged ballots are counted. The final 54% turnout will be the highest since 1980, and far higher than projected by county officials.

“The fact is we missed the boat by 10 points,” elections chief Bruce Bradley said. “I have no ability to gauge what’s going on in churches. I’m a numbers cruncher. I turn on CNN for [analysis].”

So what does this conservative, Republican-leaning flood of voters mean for the Nov. 7 general election, if anything?

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Frank said it bodes well for independent candidates like Assemblyman Tom McClintock (R-Northridge), a longtime Republican maverick who trounced moderate county Supervisor Judy Mikels in the 19th Senate Republican primary. He faces Simi Valley lawyer Daniel Gonzalez, a Democrat, in the fall.

“The Mikels-McClintock race could be the best example in the state of this anti-establishment trend,” he said, noting that 15% of county voters are not aligned with a political party. “Just about every local official endorsed Mikels, but the voters back McClintock, who is independent even of his own party.”

Several local Democrats said the primary results are an aberration, and may even include a silver lining for the fall.

“You had a couple of elements--McCain and Prop. 22--that won’t be here in the fall,” said Hank Lacayo, chairman of the county Democratic Central Committee. “Take those wild cards out and you’ve got a different scenario on Nov. 7. I think county voters are going to come to their senses.”

Democrats watched with interest, Lacayo said, as Mikels and McClintock shredded each other in an attempt to replace retiring Sen. Cathie Wright (R-Simi Valley).

They noted a similar moderate-conservative fight in the 38th Assembly race, where San Fernando Valley physician Keith Richman defeated Simi Valley schools trustee Norm Walker, who was backed with big donations by the same conservative forces that support McClintock and Assemblyman Tony Strickland (R-Thousand Oaks).

The county Republican Central Committee also stood divided after Tuesday’s vote. A slate backed by Strickland, including his mother, took 11 of 22 seats. The current committee majority, moderates led by farmer Paul Leavens and insurance agent Bob Larkin, took the other 11.

“We didn’t have any bitter primaries,” Lacayo said. “I don’t see that vitriol among Democrats.”

Leavens and Larkin said the split, fundamentally over abortion, has them worried. They fear the dispute could undercut party efforts needed in several tough races countywide.

“We’re really going to have to try to work together, or we’re going to have a real nightmare,” said Leavens, the county chairman. “We’re going to have to turn the other cheek. That’s the only way we’re going to get Tony reelected.”

Assembly leaders from both major parties have targeted Strickland’s 37th District race for extra attention, because the first-term incumbent barely beat Democrat teacher Roz McGrath in 1998, and now she’s back for a second try.

After easing past Port Hueneme Councilman Jon Sharkey in a friendly primary, and receiving Sharkey’s endorsement Wednesday, McGrath can mount a campaign with pledges of $500,000 to $1 million from party leaders. So when her year as a kindergarten teacher ends in June, she will become a full-time candidate until the election.

She’s not worried that Strickland pulled 56% of the vote in Tuesday’s open primary, she said, because she’s sure Democrats will turn up when they’re needed in the fall presidential election.

“We’ve got our work cut out for us,” she said. “But I feel real good about our campaign. I feel I’m within range of winning this race.”

Strickland said he was surprised that McGrath, who beat Sharkey 3 to 1, didn’t do better, because she got more than $50,000 from Sacramento Democrats for the primary.

He said his majority support shows the race is his to win.

“My whole goal is to get 50% in the primary,” he said election night, “It’s a referendum on the job I’m doing.”

Both McGrath and Strickland spent more than $400,000 in 1998, and they expect a more expensive campaign this time.

The 35th Assembly District offers a similar situation, except the incumbent is a first-term Democrat, Hannah-Beth Jackson.

Jackson, whose Santa Barbara-based district includes Ventura, Santa Paula and Ojai, spent $900,000 in 1998 to beat Republican Chris Mitchum. This time she faces business attorney Robin Sullivan, a Santa Paula councilwoman, who Assembly Republicans recruited and whom they say they’ll back with big money.

“I know they want the seat back [from Jackson] and they think I can do it,” Sullivan said. She hired a campaign manager a month ago, and is already working full time on the race.

Although hardly known in Santa Barbara County, which comprises 60% of the district, Sullivan received about 37% of the vote on Tuesday.

Jackson, who received 55% of the vote while another Democrat got 7%, said it’s clear her district likes what she’s doing for them.

“I’ve heard they’re going to target the district,” Jackson said. “But I think Democrats getting 62% yesterday should give them cause to reflect.

Jackson said she doesn’t think the race will be as expensive as last time--but that she’ll spend at least $500,000. Democratic leaders have promised the money she needs to defend the seat.

Jackson said she is starting the race with $130,000 in the bank, while Sullivan said she has about $6,000.

McClintock, meanwhile, emerged from his primary a 3-to-1 victor over Mikels. And in taking 52% of the overall vote, he surpassed Democrat Gonzalez, who had 30.4%.

“There are a lot of folks who think government is too lazy, too expensive and too intrusive. They want government out of their faces and out of their lives,” he said. “And I think my message will resonate just as strongly in November as it did in March.”

Although the 19th Senate District seat has been held by a Republican for nearly 30 years, Gonzalez said he can overcome a small Republican edge in registered voters by focusing on McClintock’s quirky record as an ideologue usually not even backed by his party.

“My primary goal is to educate the public on what his voting record is and how far to the right he has been as an assemblyman,” Gonzalez said. “He talks the craziness about [abolishing] the diamond lane. And he opposes gun control even after we had that attack on the Jewish children’s center in Granada Hills.”

McClintock’s response: “I’ve never had the party establishment’s support, and neither did Ronald Reagan. And both of us have done pretty well. I stand where I stand.”