Toll Consultant’s Bumpy Road

Board members of the Transportation Corridor Agencies say their recent award of a $90,000 contract should not be read as a vote of confidence in a traffic forecasting firm with a poor record. But how else can it be read?

Wilbur Smith & Associates is one of only three nationally recognized companies that predict how many cars will use a toll road. The TCA needs to see if the other two companies have better records.

In 1993, Wilbur Smith predicted the traffic on the San Joaquin Hills toll road between Newport Beach and San Juan Capistrano before it opened. It turned out the predictions were off by a whopping 40%. A 1998 forecast for traffic on the road has been off by 16%.

TCA board members have promised to find out the reasons for the bad projections. They should have had the answer before awarding the contract. A Wilbur Smith executive said the original estimates were flawed because the economy went downhill in the 1990s, and the road opened later than expected.

The latest contract is only for analyzing when drivers use the road so that tolls can be adjusted at different times of day. Still, affirming the work of a consultant whose projections were so far off the mark raises questions about the board’s judgment.

Unfortunately, Supervisor Todd Spitzer, a TCA board member, could not vote because the firm contributed $500 to his campaign fund. Here is an example of how campaign contributions can inhibit the oversight of officials who otherwise might serve as watchdogs. Spitzer can vote on Wilbur Smith projects next month, a year after receiving the contribution. No more contributions should have to force him or other board members to recuse themselves on TCA matters.