Amnesty’s the Road Bump in Debate on Immigration

WASHINGTON —  In the U.S.-Mexico talks on immigration, it is the unspoken word, a term so sensitive that officials on both sides of the bargaining table avoid using it in public.

The word is “amnesty.” Today, as Cabinet officials of the United States and Mexico meet to discuss an array of immigration issues, their agenda includes border safety, a new guest worker program and other strategies to impose order on the chaotic human flow across America’s southern boundary.

Yet the notion of legalizing some of the 3 million to 4 million Mexicans unlawfully in the United States has been on the table since President Bush visited Mexican President Vicente Fox in February. The idea has thrilled immigrant advocates and was recently endorsed by Democratic leaders who would like it to extend to immigrants of all nationalities.

But a strategy of legalization, dubbed “regularization” in the U.S.-Mexico talks, is sparking mixed feelings on Capitol Hill and even inside the Bush administration. Opposition to legalization, which would allow undocumented immigrants to stay in the United States permanently, could become the major challenge to any effort to overhaul immigration policy.

“Amnesty will not have smooth sledding in Congress,” vows Rep. Thomas G. Tancredo (R-Colo.), who heads a 16-member congressional caucus on immigration reform. “No matter how you say it, it is rewarding someone for breaking the law.”

In talks scheduled for today at the State Department, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and Atty. Gen. John Ashcroft plan to discuss immigration issues with Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda and Interior Secretary Santiago Creel. The meeting is in preparation for Fox’s visit to the United States in early September, when the White House would like to announce some achievements in the immigration talks.

In recent days, however, the Bush administration has signaled that no dramatic breakthrough is at hand on the delicate matter of legalizing Mexicans who have entered this country unlawfully. Some believe that a behind-the-scenes struggle is underway in the administration over how far to go in any immigration plan and that the president is warier than many have realized.

Mexican officials argue that “regularization” for millions of Mexicans in the United States, along with an expanded guest worker program, should be pillars of a comprehensive plan that would also address border safety and other matters. They have made clear that they do not want a piecemeal approach but seek what Castaneda has called “the whole enchilada.”

The U.S. side has responded that granting citizenship to some illegal immigrants may prove a difficult matter politically.

“From the outset, the Mexicans have been told that the guest worker program is more politically viable than regularization,” said Armand B. Peschard-Sverdrup, who directs the Mexico Project at the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a Washington, D.C., think tank. “The Mexicans have made the argument that it’s a package deal, that from a pragmatic standpoint you can’t have one without the other.”

A public opinion poll conducted in March by the Christian Science Monitor, for example, found sharp public divisions and uncertainties on the issue, with 44% opposed to an amnesty, 26% in favor and 30% undecided.

Such rifts are reflected inside the Bush administration, where political aides have been enthusiastic about granting a limited legalization program that might prove popular in the Latino community.

“You don’t have a consensus,” Peschard-Sverdrup said. “That’s why there’s so much uncertainty about what you’ll end up with.”

At a meeting last week of White House staffers and immigrant advocacy groups, administration aides sent the message that the White House was intent on pursuing reforms at a methodical pace, only after full consultation within the Republican Party, where many conservatives are skeptical about proposals to grant citizenship to some illegal immigrants.

“They made it clear they’re not going to be rushed by the clock,” recalled Frank Sharry, executive director of the National Immigration Forum. “We were told they were hoping to make an announcement in September, but it may turn out to be more a statement of principles than a detailed set of proposals.”

Bush has publicly made clear his disapproval of a “blanket amnesty.” It remains uncertain, however, just what the U.S. and Mexican negotiators mean by such phrases as “the regularization of undocumented Mexicans in the United States,” the term they used in an April statement.

In the years after 1986, when Congress last approved a major amnesty program, officials granted amnesty and permanent legal residence to 2.7 million individuals who had lived here continuously since before Jan. 1, 1982, and farm workers who met other guidelines.

Yet the 1980s’ experience colors the new debate. Critics of granting citizenship to illegal immigrants contend that the last amnesty actually caused more illegal immigration, as millions of Mexicans clamored to join relatives who had been granted legal status in the United States.

A report issued last fall by the Immigration and Naturalization Service found that, in the years after the 1986 amnesty, the flow of illegal immigrants actually rose, from 580,000 in 1987 to 835,000 in 1989, before declining in the 1990s.

Indeed, the word “amnesty” did not even appear in a set of principles unveiled last week by Democratic Party leaders seeking ways to legitimize many immigrants who entered this country unlawfully. Rather, the Democratic approach urged an “earned access to legalization” that would target those who have resided in the United States for many years.

For the Republican Party, whose base includes many law-and-order conservatives, the notion of embracing some form of amnesty is particularly troubling.

Mexican officials, it appears, are hoping that White House interest in winning over Latino voters will make the administration amenable to some form of an amnesty approach. But they also are mindful that the issue is a touchy one for many north of their border.

On a trip to Chicago last month, Fox addressed the matter with care. Speaking to thousands of cheering Mexican Americans, he proclaimed his support for “a sort of legal recognition and status” for those unlawfully in the United States, “so they won’t have to hide from anyone.”

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Times staff writer James F. Smith in Mexico City contributed to this story.