Oscar Candidates Will Soon Be as Plentiful as Fallen Leaves

Is it really possible that Hollywood only made about four movies this year that weren’t aimed at charter members of the Britney Spears fan club? Breathe a sigh of relief, because that’s all about to change. About six weeks from now the movie business will perversely screech on the brakes, shift gears and start flooding the marketplace with adult (and I mean this in the best sense) movies.

Talk about feast or famine. It’s only a matter of time before your friends will be complaining that there are too many good movies to choose from. In baseball, October is playoff time. But in Hollywood, October is the start of Oscar season, that all too-brief 10-week window when the studios shed their ripped-T-shirted summer wardrobe, put on their holiday tuxedos and opt for class over crass.

From Oct. 5 to year’s end, not a weekend will go by without at least one Oscar-friendly film hitting the theaters. The closer to Christmas, the bigger the crowd. “It’s a huge issue for everybody, having all these movies coming out at once,” says DreamWorks marketing chief Terry Press. “Look at December--it’s just a logjam of potentially great big-star films.”

It’s only August, but the Academy Awards handicapping has already begun; last week a veteran Oscar publicist faxed around an early peek at the 2001 race. Since the betting window has opened, here’s my early line on the year’s best picture candidates, culled from conversations with studio marketers and industry insiders. Picking a winner this early is a little like trying to handicap the Kentucky Derby at Christmas, but if Warner Bros. can put up “Harry Potter” billboards in July (it opens in mid-November), I figure I can take a whack at the best picture field before Labor Day.

At this stage, the handicapping is all about perception and pedigree--few of the films have been seen by anyone. As in political polling, our best picture favorites are the ones with the most name recognition: By year’s end, expect a couple of sleepers to move up closer to the top.

Favorites

“Ali” (4-1): You’d have to go way back to “Gandhi” for the last time a biopic about an instantly recognizable figure won best picture (as opposed to a historical epic like “Braveheart”), but “Ali” packs a big punch. As played by Will Smith, its central figure is one of America’s great modern-day heroes, an indefatigable warrior who wins, loses and reclaims his throne amid the turmoil of the ‘60s and early ‘70s. With respected director Michael Mann at the helm, this picture has the heft and commercial potential of a big award winner.

“A Beautiful Mind” (6-1): Russell Crowe plays schizophrenic Nobel Prize-winning mathematician John Forbes Nash Jr. in a journey-through-madness role that’s irresistible best actor bait. The academy has snubbed director Ron Howard in the past (even for “Apollo 13”), but it has a soft spot for real-life triumph-of-the-spirit stories, especially ones whose feel-good emotions have some intellectual gravitas behind them. The film’s Akiva Goldsman script has almost mythic status among Hollywood insiders, which gives the film extra early momentum.

“The Majestic” (8-1): Jim Carrey is another Oscar outcast, but he has a weighty vehicle here in a Capra-esque tale about a blacklisted screenwriter who develops amnesia and winds up helping run a movie house in a small California town where he’s mistaken for a dead war hero. Director Frank Darabont is 2 for 2 with best picture nominations (“The Shawshank Redemption” and “The Green Mile”), putting him on a pace rivaling Capra himself, who won three Oscars in the mid-1930s. Plus: If you think the academy is a sucker for movies about the Holocaust, wait till you see how they respond to a movie about the blacklist.

“The Shipping News” (10-1): Directed by Lasse Hallstrom, this adaptation of Annie Proulx’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel chronicles a newspaperman’s journey home in search of love and happiness. Talk about pedigree: The cast, as if chosen with Oscar voters in mind, features Kevin Spacey, Julianne Moore, Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett. Hallstrom’s past two films both got best picture nominations (“The Cider House Rules” and “Chocolat”), and with the Miramax Oscar marketing machine behind him, three could be the charm if the academy embraces the story’s grim, “Angela’s Ashes”-style dramatics.

“Shrek” (12-1): A big hit that earned perhaps the best reviews of any studio film this year, this crowd-pleaser has one crucial drawback. It arrives in time for the academy’s first best animated feature award, meaning voters can honor its animation artistry while supporting a more cerebral film for best picture. DreamWorks has vowed to campaign for both awards (it’s re-releasing “Shrek” in L.A. and New York at year’s end with new footage), but it has a lot of academy animated-film bias to overcome. It remains a favorite only if the year-end movies disappoint.

Contenders

“Vanilla Sky” (15-1): “Jerry Maguire” teammates Tom Cruise and writer-director Cameron Crowe reunite in this remake of Alejandro Amenabar’s 1998 film “Open Your Eyes,” in which a dissolute playboy finds the love of his life, only to be disfigured in a horrifying car crash. It’s unclear if the new shrouded-in-secrecy version sticks to the original, but Cruise and Crowe have earned academy respect, though they’ve never won an acting or directing statuette. However, the film will have to be more than a stylish romantic thriller to get serious Oscar consideration.

“Lord of the Rings” (18-1): A classic fable of good against evil, this Peter Jackson-directed film has the grand ambition (it’s just the first in a trilogy of films) and the mythic sweep to be a serious contender. It has some history on its side--”Star Wars” was a best picture nominee--and a dream cast (including Ian McKellen and Cate Blanchett) that gives it a leg up on “Harry Potter,” especially if academy voters aren’t offended by the Burger King marketing tie-ins.

“Gangs of New York” (20-1): The rumors about the Leonardo DiCaprio-starring film’s $100-million-plus budgetary excess shouldn’t worry Oscar voters or they wouldn’t have voted for “Titanic.” Miramax’s big worry is whether director Martin Scorsese, who hasn’t been in the Oscar race as a director since “GoodFellas,” still has the magic touch to bring off this three-hour 1860s gangster saga.

Longshots

“Windtalkers” (25-1): Nicolas Cage is on the outs with critics, and John Woo is hardly an academy favorite, but this somber drama about World War II heroism has the heft that earns Oscar nods, as long as HBO’s “Band of Brothers” doesn’t steal its thunder.

“K-Pax” (30-1): With Kevin Spacey as a mental patient who might be an alien and Jeff Bridges as his therapist, this film gives the academy actor’s branch plenty to look forward to. But it’s unclear whether the film has enough appeal for a best picture nod, even if voters get past the awful title.

“The Royal Tenenbaums” (35-1): Wes Anderson is a critically loved director who’s assembled a terrific cast (Anjelica Huston, Gwyneth Paltrow, Gene Hackman, Ben Stiller) but his tale of a family of burned-out prodigies could be too quirky for conservative academy members.

“Memento” (40-1): The indie hit of the year, this well-regarded time-twisting thriller should make plenty of critics’ Top 10 lists, but is also probably too mind-bending for stodgy Oscar voters.

“Life as a House” (45-1): With a star turn from Kevin Kline, this may be too much of a five-hankie weepie for critics, but never count out a spirit-redeeming family drama at Oscar time.

“Moulin Rouge” (50-1): The people who like it really like it, but this undeniably ambitious Baz Luhrmann musical probably hasn’t gotten the critical acclaim or audience acceptance needed to catapult it into best picture territory.

“Harry Potter” (60-1): If “The Wizard of Oz” didn’t win, don’t bet on this children’s fable either unless it somehow outstrips director Chris Columbus’ popcorn movie pedigree.

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“The Big Picture” runs every Tuesday in Calendar. If you have questions, ideas or criticism, e-mail them to patrick.goldstein@latimes.com.