Possible Undercounts Could Be Costly for Some Local Cities

The populations of Camarillo and Thousand Oaks may have been substantially undercounted by the new U.S. Census 2000, a glitch that could cost big money if left uncorrected, city officials said Friday.

Meanwhile, Oxnard officials said they are pleased with the new census, because it counted 10,000 more residents than anticipated in a pre-census estimate.

In all, census population totals released Thursday were lower than state Department of Finance pre-census estimates in six local cities and higher in four.

“It’s possible some cities didn’t participate in the census’ address-checking program,” said planner Steve Wood, chief census analyst for Ventura County. “So new neighborhoods could have been missed.”

A study by the U.S. Conference of Mayors has calculated that each person missed in the census costs local government $129 to $175 a year. Census officials estimate the potential benefit of each extra person at $150 to $190 a year.

Either way, Oxnard’s extra 10,000 residents could mean millions more dollars from Sacramento and Washington each year--a payoff for an aggressive census outreach program that sent multilingual workers to parks, churches, athletic fields and supermarkets to help residents complete their census forms.

“[The] outreach program demonstrates how an effective grass-roots effort can pay off for local taxpayers,” said Oxnard Mayor Manuel Lopez.

The flip side of that may be the Camarillo census count. City officials say they did everything right, even getting census counters to add 2,000 missed addresses to their list of Camarillo dwellings.

Still, the census reported Thursday that Camarillo’s population increased just 9.1% during the 1990s, far short of the state Department of Finance’s pre-census estimate of 21%. That amounts to an undercount of perhaps 6,000 residents, officials said. The census counted 57,077 residents and the city thinks the count should be about 63,000.

“We’re perplexed and puzzled,” said Larry Davis, assistant city manager. “But until we get more details so we can start comparing census track by census track, there’s not much we can do. But we’ll track down the discrepancy.”

Davis said he could not understand how the city could build so many new dwellings over the last decade--about 3,500--and be credited with only 4,774 more residents. Camarillo historically has averaged nearly three people per dwelling. So the new construction would accommodate 10,000 more residents.

Equally puzzling, Davis said, is how the census found that Camarillo lost white population even as new subdivisions were being built in upscale Mission Oaks, Sterling Hills and Spanish Hills.

“How we didn’t grow in the non-Hispanic sector is beyond me,” Davis said.

If errors can be proved, census officials have pledged to revise the figures.

In Thousand Oaks, the potential undercount was about 3,800 people. The census found about 117,000 residents, not the nearly 121,000 that state analysts had projected from a host of variables.

“It’s possible that we may have had 3,000 people undercounted,” said Deputy City Manager Scott Mitnick. “We’ve always felt more comfortable with the state Department of Finance numbers anyway.”

Planning Manager Paul Metrovitsch said Thousand Oaks doesn’t really know yet where the problem lies.

“But we’re going to be studying it,” he said. “We’ll figure out the discrepancy.”

Cities with census counts in excess of state pre-census estimates were Oxnard, +10,053; Moorpark, +1,688; Santa Paula, +1,343; Fillmore, +383.

Cities with census counts lower than state pre-census estimates were: Camarillo, -6,258; Thousand Oaks, -3,793; Ventura, -2,589; Simi Valley, -1,672; Port Hueneme, -1,633; Ojai, -396.

For the county overall, the census found 3,304 fewer residents than the state estimate.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Ventura County Racial Profile

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Total City Year White Latino Black Asian population Camarillo 1980 84.0 10.1 1.1 3.7 37,797 1990 80.0 12.0 1.5 6.1 52,303 2000* 72.8 14.0 1.4 7.3 57,077 Fillmore 1980 51.5 47.9 0.1 0.6 9,602 1990 39.0 59.0 0.1 0.7 11,992 2000* 30.6 62.3 0.2 0.8 13,643 Moorpark 1980 62.8 33.7 n/a n/a 7,798 1990 70.0 22.0 1.4 6.4 25,494 2000* 62.4 25.7 1.4 5.6 31,415 Ojai 1980 89.8 8.0 0.1 0.9 6,816 1990 85.0 12.0 0.2 1.5 7,613 2000* 79.6 14.5 0.6 1.7 7,862 Oxnard 1980 42.9 44.4 6.1 6.1 108,195 1990 32.0 54.0 4.8 7.9 142,216 2000* 20.8 61.8 3.5 7.5 170,358 Port Hueneme 1980 66.2 22.7 4.5 5.3 17,803 1990 58.0 30.0 5.1 6.3 20,319 2000* 42.7 36.3 5.6 6.5 21,845 Santa Paula 1980 47.1 50.5 0.1 0.8 20,552 1990 39.0 59.0 0.3 0.9 25,062 2000* 26.4 66.1 0.2 0.7 28,598 Simi Valley 1980 86.6 9.3 1.1 7.2 77,500 1990 80.0 13.0 1.5 5.3 100,217 2000* 72.7 15.0 1.2 6.4 111,351 Thousand Oaks 1980 86.3 5.8 0.8 2.6 77,072 1990 84.0 10.0 1.2 4.7 104,352 2000* 77.7 11.8 1.0 5.9 117,005 Ventura 1980 82.8 12.1 1.1 1.5 74,393 1990 77.0 18.0 1.6 2.6 92,575 2000* 68.1 21.7 1.3 3.0 100,916 COUNTYWIDE 1980 72.4 21.4 2.1 3.0 529,174 1990 65.0 26.5 2.2 4.9 669,016 2000* 56.8 30.7 1.8 5.4 753,197

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* Census 2000 was the first to allow people to claim more than one racial ancestry. The racial breakdowns shown for 2000 reflect as a minimum those who claim to be of only one race. Maximums are slightly higher.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Shift by Race, 1990-2000

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1990 2000 White 65.9% 56.8%-58.5% * Latino 25.8% 30.7%-33.4% * Asian 4.9% 5.4%-6.8% * Black 2.2% 1.8%-2.4% *

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* Census 2000 was the first to allow people to claim more than one racial ancestry. The racial breakdowns shown for 2000 reflect as a minimum those who claim to be of only one race, while the maximum includes those who say they are at least partially of that same race.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Increase, 1990-2000

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1990 2000 Change % change Moorpark 25,494 31,415 5,921 23.2% Oxnard 142,216 170,358 28,142 19.8% Santa Paula 25,062 28,598 3,536 14.1% Fillmore 11,992 13,643 1,651 13.8% Thousand Oaks 104,352 117,005 12,653 12.1% Simi Valley 100,217 111,351 11,134 11.1% Camarillo 52,303 57,077 4,774 9.1% Ventura 92,575 100,916 8,341 9.0% Port Hueneme 20,319 21,845 1,526 7.5% Ojai 7,613 7,862 249 3.3% COUNTYWIDE 669,016 753,197 84,181 12.6%

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Age Profile

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Under Under 18 years 18 years in 1990 in 2000 Moorpark 33.5% 34.2% Fillmore 33.0% 32.3% Oxnard 30.7% 31.8% Santa Paula 29.9% 31.4% Simi Valley 28.2% 28.4% Port Hueneme 27.5% 27.6% Thousand Oaks 24.7% 26.0% Camarillo 24.1% 25.3% Ojai 24.0% 24.9% Ventura 23.5% 25.0% Countywide 27.3% 28.4% Statewide 26.0% 27.3%

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Source: U. S. Census Bureau