Jones Shows Up for an Uphill Battle

SHINGLE SPRINGS —  It’s a drizzly night in the Sierra foothills and Bill Jones is in a dingy, crowded hall, talking to 140 strangers. They’re eating potluck pasta, salads and sweets. This is about the last place any normal family man would want to spend an evening.

But Jones is in an abnormal line of work--politics--and he’s running for governor on a thin wallet. That brings the California secretary of state to some event like this practically every night. It’s “candidate’s night,” sponsored by El Dorado County Republican women.

What’s more, he’s here with his wife Maureen, who’s also usually on the campaign trail. Their daughter Andrea, 24, is back at headquarters in Sacramento directing campaign field work.

The candidate had planned to fly here in his single-engine Cessna. That’s his preferred and customary transportation. But rain grounded him and he came by car, 40 miles east of the Capitol.

His day began in hometown Fresno at a raisin industry breakfast. Then he hit the phone, dialing for dollars. “I raised $200,000 today.”

Now he’s in this unpretentious burg. What drives a man to leave hearth and home on a cold night?

“Let’s put it this way,” Jones says. “How many people do you know who have had a chance to be governor?”

His wife interrupts: “And if we thought the other two [GOP candidates] had the answers, I’d bring him home.”

But Jones doesn’t have much of a chance, contend political insiders, who have been watching polls and campaign finance reports. By Sept. 30, Jones had reported only $1.3 million in cash.

This is what he’s up against: One statewide TV ad buy is projected to cost $1.6 million in February, just before the March 5 primary. For that, you can run a 30-second spot 10 times in each TV market.

Jones gets a break. That cost is reduced considerably from the 2000 election, mainly because of the slumping economy. There’s less demand for advertising and less competition for TV time.

Polls consistently have found former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan running comfortably ahead of Jones, with political novice Bill Simon trailing badly in third. Some recent private polls have excluded Simon and shown a close two-way race between Riordan and Jones. But unless Simon drops out by the Dec. 7 deadline, he’ll be on the ballot, presumably hurting mostly Jones.

Jones’ strategy will be to skip L.A. network TV--where one good buy costs roughly $600,000--and spend his scarce dollars in Republican territories. Areas like San Diego ($200,000), Fresno ($70,000), Bakersfield ($30,000).

Run ads along the Central Coast. And through the Central Valley, where Republicans have been gaining dramatically in recent years, compared with L.A. County, where their relative strength has declined.

Veteran strategist Ed Rollins estimates spending $1 million on targeted TV. Another $900,000 will pay for direct mail to Republican households, which also will get $600,000 worth of phone calls.

“We’re in a guerrilla campaign, not a conventional campaign,” Rollins says.

Jones also will try to cash in on historic anti-L.A. sentiment throughout California. He’ll do this by constantly reminding voters that Riordan was an L.A. mayor. He’ll point to bad police morale, wasted school money and gouging the state on electricity sales.

Says Jones spokesman Sean Walsh, explaining the anti-L.A. bias: “There’s traffic, there’s crime, there’s smog and there’s Hollywood. While Hollywood is an economic machine for California, a lot of people think it’s a little fast and loose for them.”

People like foothill Republicans.

So Jones has been coming a lot to spots like Shingle Springs, historically rural but now being squeezed by Sacramento spillover.

In his speech, Jones did not remind the GOP activists that Riordan has a poor record of party support--that he has donated $1 million-plus to Democrats. Jones didn’t have to. It was the first question asked.

“This is not the total issue,” Jones replied, “but it’s important since we are picking someone who is going to end up being the standard-bearer for our party.”

He talked mostly about his 12 years in the Assembly and seven in statewide office--and assailed Democratic Gov. Gray Davis.

“California needs a vision for the future--just as we had in the ‘60s,” said the lifelong valley rancher. “With the pressure on this state today, it will not tolerate timidity and procrastination, and that’s precisely what we’ve had from Gray Davis, don’t you agree?”

Applause.

Later, emcee Karen Smith told me: “I’d say Bill Jones has the edge up here. People are upset because Riordan is not making the effort to show up at these things.”

A political cardinal rule: Show up. Even on a dreary night.