Davis to Make His Case, but Not Plead It

SACRAMENTO —  Trailing in the polls and struggling to maintain a unified front among Democratic Party mainstays, Gov. Gray Davis will open a new phase of the fight for his political survival today with an address aimed at confronting the roots of his unpopularity and defending his performance as governor, campaign officials said.

Davis plans to use the afternoon speech at UCLA -- with just seven weeks left before election day -- to cast the recall as part of a broader effort by Republicans to undermine the nation’s democratic processes.

Aides say he will liken the recall to the impeachment of President Clinton, the 2000 Florida presidential voting fracas and this year’s attempt by Republicans to redraw legislative boundaries in Texas -- a fight that twice prompted Democratic lawmakers to flee the state.

That rhetorical strategy reflects concern among Davis’ advisors about the large number of Democrats who tell pollsters that they plan to vote for the recall. Strategists say Davis must bring those Democrats back into the fold before large numbers decide to vote to recall him and choose Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante or one of the Republican candidates as an alternative.

Bustamante’s efforts to gain support for his candidacy gained ground Monday as the Legislature’s Latino caucus and a union representing state workers endorsed him. Several unions plan this week to decide whether to urge members to couple a “no” vote on the recall with a vote for the lieutenant governor.

Davis will make his most direct appeal to disgruntled Californians as:

* Republican challenger Arnold Schwarzenegger readies a 60-second television spot that will hit the airwaves Wednesday morning, the first in what is expected to be a deluge of TV advertising by the major candidates.

* A federal judge prepares to rule Wednesday on whether to allow the election to go ahead Oct. 7. The American Civil Liberties Union sued to block the use of punch-card voting machines in Los Angeles and other urban counties.

* Bill Simon, the Republican who lost to Davis last year, grew increasingly agitated at suggestions that he drop out of the recall race. Simon called instead for GOP front-runner Schwarzenegger to “step out from behind the curtain” and state his views on the issues.

Aides say that, in his speech at UCLA’s Ackerman Grand Ballroom, the governor will address two issues that “stand between him and voters” -- the energy crisis and the budget deficit -- offering explanations for actions that critics say show the governor’s lack of leadership.

The typically stoic Davis intends to speak “from the heart” as he responds to his critics, said aides, who added that the governor would sound a few notes of contrition and accept responsibility for his administration’s shortcomings.

Davis won’t apologize or ask for a second chance, campaign officials said, but he will try to make a case for why Californians should reject the recall.

“He’s not going to grovel at the feet of voters and say, ‘I’m sorry I let you down’ or that sort of thing,” said one senior advisor, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “However, he’s not going to duck responsibility.”

Voters on Oct. 7 will face two recall questions. The first asks whether Davis should be removed from office. The second lists 135 candidates to succeed him. If the recall question loses, the second part has no effect. But if the recall passes, whichever candidate gets the most votes will become governor as soon as the results are certified.

The governor’s first comprehensive remarks on the campaign come at a moment that many Democratic strategists see as crucial for Davis. The strategists say Davis must counter a growing perception among Democrats that his recall is inevitable and that the best way to keep the governor’s office in Democratic hands is to support Bustamante.

The governor’s initial strategy was to hold a unified front among Democrats against the recall and against any Democratic replacement candidate. That strategy began to crumble when Bustamante announced he would run, and it has steadily eroded in recent days.

On Monday, for example, U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer said she would be “very involved” in the lieutenant governor’s “No on the recall, Yes on Bustamante” campaign.

“It’s important to have that safety net if we can’t convince people to vote against the recall,” Boxer told a mostly Democratic audience at Leisure World in Laguna Woods.

Also, officials of the 140,000-member California State Employees Assn. announced that their executive board had voted to back Bustamante. It remained unclear how much money the union will donate to Bustamante’s campaign, said the organization’s president, Perry Kenny.

And the California Teachers Assn., which has quarreled with Davis in the past, interviewed Bustamante as well as other candidates.

As unions ponder their position, a fight appeared to be brewing before next week’s convention of the California Federation of Labor. So far, the labor federation’s position has been that it opposes the recall and will remain silent on the second part of the ballot.

Supporters of that stand say it is the simplest message to convey to members and the most likely to keep Davis in office. But backers of Bustamante are pushing for the union to get behind his candidacy.

At least some major unions are sticking with the current position. The 400,000-member State Building & Construction Trades Council of California, for instance, voted in recent days to hold firm against making any endorsement to replace Davis.

“I believe if you’re in a war, you go out there and fight, and if you think you can’t win the war, you leave yourself a lot of outs,” said Bob Balgenorth, the union’s president. “I believe we can win this recall. If I didn’t, I’d be staking out the position” the other groups have taken.

Some labor leaders say that with fewer than 50 days remaining until the Oct. 7 vote, union members need a decision soon.

“At some point, there’s got to be the ‘come to Jesus’ moment,” and the meeting has “got to be it,” said Barbara Dab, spokeswoman for the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor, referring to the Aug. 26 meeting in Manhattan Beach. Her organization “at the moment” is still declining to endorse a backup candidate.

A formal decision on the part of the state federation to endorse a backup would require a vote of two-thirds of delegates present, if the matter is brought to a vote.

Many labor leaders have expressed concern about Davis’ declining support in polls. Kenny said that while his board was firmly opposed to the recall, “You can’t forget about the second question; that’s just foolish if you just leave it out there.”

With that sentiment becoming more common, there was a sense in the Davis camp that there is no more time to wait, aides said.

“He feels that it’s an important time to stand up and talk to voters directly about what this is about,” said Davis campaign manager Larry Grisolano. “He’s going to let everybody know that the buck stops with him. He’s also going to set the record straight and talk about some of the battles he’s had and the victories he’s won.”

Campaign officials say that unlike past speeches, which were crafted by aides, Davis and his wife, Sharon, took the lead in shaping the address after the governor rejected an early draft.

But with polls showing that a solid majority of voters intend to bounce Davis from office and that only a small percentage are inclined to change their minds, some analysts wondered whether he had waited too long.

“The question is whether it’s too little too late,” said Bruce Cain, a political scientist at UC Berkeley.

By depicting the recall as part of a pattern by Republicans of “not accepting the decision made by voters at the ballot box and looking for ways through the side door to [gain] power,” Davis hopes to appeal to the discomfort many Californians feel about the process, an advisor said.

The speech is intended to launch a more active strategy for Davis in which the governor will travel around California in a series of town hall-style meetings and other events that will showcase his knowledge of issues, aides said.

The idea of a speech directly addressing Davis’ predicament has been nurtured in part by Clinton’s successful strategy for surviving his impeachment, which included a public admission of marital infidelity and bad judgment, and by polls that show about half of voters believe Davis should fight the recall and not resign.

At the same time, Democratic strategists say their focus groups have indicated willingness among Democrats and independents to give Davis a second chance, people close to the campaign said.

“Voters in this country are very forgiving,” said Democratic consultant Darry Sragow. “He’s perfectly within his rights to say it’s been a very difficult time and it would have been difficult for any governor. But voters want to know that he understands that he has disappointed them. He’s got to acknowledge the anger and frustration. He’s not going to defeat the recall unless he acknowledges it.”

Republican Simon found to his annoyance Monday that his campaign continued to be shadowed by Schwarzenegger. The candidate had to respond, again, to a query on whether he would leave the race in favor of the actor.

Questioned by ABC radio host Sean Hannity about whether Republicans should have one candidate to go up against the one Democrat running to replace Davis, Simon’s voice rose in irritation:

“We don’t know where Mr. Schwarzenegger stands. We haven’t heard a word out of Mr. Schwarzenegger. We don’t know -- no, let me finish -- we don’t know where Arianna Huffington stands. For all we know, she’s a Democrat. We don’t know where Peter Ueberroth stands. You know, he’s probably a Democrat. So when you say the Democrats have one candidate, I would disagree with you. I actually think the Democrats have a couple of candidates.”

*

Times staff writers Nancy Vogel, James Rainey, Jean Pasco and Jean Guccione contributed to this report.