Chavez Foes Complete Recall Signature Drive in Venezuela

Members of the political opposition claimed success Monday on the final day of an effort to gather signatures to recall President Hugo Chavez, setting the stage for a dramatic showdown in the United States’ fourth-largest oil supplier.

The petition drive closed just a week after Chavez supporters said they had succeeded in a similar campaign to recall more than three dozen opposition lawmakers.

Chavez has said he would respect the results of a fair election. He has vowed to win any recall vote, although it will be a month until the signatures from both drives can be validated.

“By blackmail, tricks or pressure, they’re not going to get me out of here,” he said last week. “If I legally lose the recall, I’m going. I don’t have an obsession with power.”

The dueling recall efforts are the latest chapter in the political turmoil that has shaken Venezuela since the 1998 election of Chavez, a fiery populist whose promised “revolution for the poor” has deeply divided the nation.

Chavez survived a coup that ousted him briefly in April 2002 and weathered a crippling nationwide strike last winter that cost the nation an estimated $6 billion. This year, inflation is topping 24% and the gross domestic product is expected to shrink as much as 20%.

To force a recall, each side had to gather about 2.4 million signatures -- 20% of registered voters. The national elections board has 30 days to determine whether they met the threshold.

If both sides satisfy legal requirements, a recall vote could be held as early as March -- a showdown whose outcome would be difficult to predict.

Under Venezuela’s constitution, a recall against Chavez would succeed only if the number of people voting to oust him equaled or exceeded the number of votes he received in the last election. When he was reelected in 2000, Chavez received 3,757,773 votes, or about 31% of registered voters.

In a country that typically produces a low turnout and where polls show that Chavez retains the support of about 35% of the populace, mostly among the poor, reaching that threshold might prove difficult.

Even if Chavez was defeated in a recall, he might be able to run again and win against a divided opposition. Currently, the field ranges from communists to housewives to former military officers.

Opposition leaders, however, dismissed such concerns Monday. “We have defeated the artillery of evil and hate with a simple pen,” said Henry Ramos, head of the country’s largest opposition party, Democratic Action. “We are going to preserve this enormous and extraordinary victory.”

Despite Chavez supporters’ accusations of a “mega-fraud,” international and national election observers said the signature-collection process was free and fair. There were only minor incidents of violence.

“Having come from a state that just had its own recall, I think you’re doing quite well here,” U.S. Rep. Diane Watson (D-Los Angeles) said during a news conference after observing the recall drive as part of a U.S. delegation.

Many Venezuelans hoped that the smooth process reflected a change in attitudes in a conflict that has been marked by violence on both sides.

More than 60 people were killed in the days surrounding the failed 2002 coup, and dozens more have died in scattered protests since.

“I’m very satisfied to see how this democratic process has been able to go ahead in an environment of tranquillity and mutual respect, how the country’s institutions have worked well,” said Organization of American States Secretary-General Cesar Gaviria, who helped broker a deal between the two sides that led to the recall campaigns.

Many Venezuelans, weary from the seemingly never-ending battle to oust Chavez, also expressed satisfaction.

“To all Venezuelans: Don’t worry,” said Francisco Carrasquero, head of the national elections board. “We’re on the right path.”

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Times staff writer Miller reported from Bogota, Colombia, and special correspondent Ixer from Caracas.