Aides Feel Davis May Pull It Off

SACRAMENTO —  As the candidates who would like to replace him attacked one another during their televised debate Wednesday night, aides to Gov. Gray Davis said they increasingly feel that they are within striking distance of saving the unpopular governor’s job.

Six weeks ago, Davis’ chances of survival looked so bleak that donors were reluctant to contribute money and prominent Democrats were reluctant to stand on the same stage with him.

Now, with several nonpartisan polls showing the race tightening, his strategists believe that they can win if they change the minds of about 3% of the electorate -- mostly independents and some Democrats who now lean toward recalling the governor.

To accomplish that, Davis’ aides say, they do not plan any major surprises over the 12 days before the Oct. 7 election. Rather, their plan calls for Davis to continue meeting angry voters face to face in town hall meetings around the state. At the same time, he will be waging a television advertising campaign designed to sow doubts about the recall in the minds of voters.

Planting those doubts may be easier, Davis aides believe, after Wednesday night’s debate, in which the candidates broadly attacked one another’s politics and personalities and only occasionally criticized the governor.

Since the start of the recall campaign, Davis and his aides have tried to emphasize the governor’s knowledge of issues and his experience in making difficult policy choices. Their argument in speeches and advertisements has been that while voters may not like Davis, the alternatives are too risky.

Campaign aides say the argument has begun to catch hold with a significant share of the electorate. “Voters have started taking a closer look at the options, and I don’t think people are seeing anything they would be willing to trade for,” said Larry Grisolano, Davis’ campaign manager.

Wednesday night, the governor’s aides were predicting that the unruly nature of the debate would underscore that theme.

“It does reinforce the image that this is a circus,” said Davis advisor Susan Kennedy.

“You have candidates up there giving easy and flip answers to very complicated questions,” she said. “You can’t solve California’s problems with 30-second sound bites.”

Some outside analysts said the campaign’s assessment may be correct. Even though the widely televised debate gave Davis’ rivals extensive publicity, the moments of raucous back-and-forth and the absence of a clear winner may help the governor, said Barbara O’Connor, director of the Center for the Study of Media and Politics at Cal State Sacramento.

“I don’t think we saw a lot of movement in voters tonight, and I think that serves Gray well,” she said. “Some people who watched the debate may think, ‘Maybe we’re better off with the devil we know; nobody makes me want to run out and vote.’ ”

In exploiting whatever advantage the debate might provide, Davis’ strategy relies on one of the governor’s most salient traits -- campaign discipline.

As other candidates try to sprint to the finish line, Davis’ aides are talking about a more methodical approach, some using the football analogy to describe their steady, grinding strategy: “three yards and a cloud of dust.”

Since a speech the governor delivered Aug. 19 to an audience of supporters at UCLA, Davis has repeatedly stuck to a few themes: admitting to voters that he has made mistakes as governor, accusing Republicans of using the recall to undermine last fall’s election and defiantly vowing to fight for his job.

“You’ve seen day in, day out an incredible discipline and focus when it comes to our strategy,” said Peter Ragone, the campaign’s communications director. “That includes talking to voters face to face and talking about the Republican nature of this recall.”

Persuading Davis to let voters vent their anger in town hall meetings was a slow process, aides say. Even after agreeing to the strategy, which his aides insisted was necessary if he was going to change voters’ opinions of him, the governor was unenthusiastic about the prospect of such in-person encounters.

But he has appeared increasingly comfortable in such forums over the last month.

“I always knew he could do it,” said Garry South, who ran Davis’ two gubernatorial campaigns and now serves as an unpaid advisor. “The thing about Gray Davis is he has the ability to rise to the occasion.”

Davis relies on a group of advisors who have worked extensively together. Most have served in previous campaigns of his, some dating back to his run for lieutenant governor in 1994.

By contrast, Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante stumbled early on, in part because of the difficulty of putting together an experienced and efficient team in such a short, fast-paced campaign, political strategists from both parties say.

“Politics is no different than sports: The longer a team has been together, the more efficiently they work together,” said Dan Schnur, communications director for Republican Gov. Pete Wilson’s successful 1994 reelection campaign and the chief strategist for Peter V. Ueberroth in his brief recall campaign.

“I look at Davis’ team the same way I look at the Los Angeles Lakers,” said the Sacramento Kings fan. “I root against them, but every once in a while you have to stop and admire how good they are at what they do.”

Several times a week, Davis and his senior campaign advisors hold strategy sessions, usually in a morning conference call. After being absent from those calls during the first weeks of the campaign, South now presides over them at Davis’ request.

“All of us have known each other collectively for a long time,” South said. “There are a lot of things you can proceed to do without having big debates about them, because everyone understands the parameters, the possibilities, the problems, the upsides and downsides of everything you do.”

In addition to South and Ragone, the Davis campaign’s inner circle consists of Kennedy; Grisolano; campaign director Steve Smith; media consultants David Doak and Tom O’Donnell; pollster Paul Maslin; and Lynn Schenk, Davis’ chief of staff and longtime confidant.

Grisolano, who entered politics in Chicago and has worked for Davis since 1994, and Smith, a gregarious former labor organizer who got his start in politics in Fred Harris’ 1976 campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, run the campaign’s day-to-day activities.

Doak and O’Donnell -- partners in the Washington, D.C.-based consulting firm of Doak, Carrier, O’Donnell & Associates -- have been major players in Democratic politics for years.

The governor has long had the reputation of being a headstrong politician, given to playing the roles of communications director and campaign manager -- a reputation that South says is vastly overblown.

“He can be very willful on some things; he can be even bullheaded or obtuse about other things,” said South. “But for the most part he works pretty well with the campaign team.”

Whether Davis has rehabilitated himself enough with voters remains a subject of debate, even among his top advisors.

“We’re going to win,” Grisolano predicted Wednesday in an interview. “I think we’re on the threshold, and we’re going to walk through the door.”

South is more measured. “We’ll see on Oct. 7 if it works,” he said. “I think most of us feel we’re operating on all six cylinders at the moment, but it’s still a close call.”