Scientists Intrigued by Quake Forecasts
PALM SPRINGS — There was no question who was the star of the Seismological Society of America’s annual meeting here over the last few days.
It was a slightly built, 82-year-old UCLA professor from Russia. Vladimir Keilis-Borok has been studying how to predict temblors for decades, and his work has often been eyed skeptically by many colleagues who are highly dubious that quakes can be predicted.
But Keilis-Borok and his international research team are on a roll: They predicted in a general way two major quakes, including the Paso Robles temblor that struck in December. Now, they are predicting that a magnitude 6.4 or larger earthquake will strike somewhere in a 12,000-square-mile swath of the Southern California desert by Sept. 5.
This is not the only warning of a larger quake in the area. At last week’s meeting, University of Oregon geologist Ray Weldon said research he had done on the San Andreas fault at Wrightwood near the Cajon Pass also indicated there might be a large quake impending on southern segments of the San Andreas in the same area as Keilis-Borok’s prediction.
In a statement issued Thursday, acting California state geologist Michael Reichle said: “People shouldn’t jump to the conclusion that this report means the Big One is imminent. It is simply another reminder that we need to be prepared for the inevitability of major earthquakes in California.”
Keilis-Borok’s recent track record made him the center of attention at the gathering of seismologists from around the nation and is earning grudging respect -- and curiosity -- from skeptics.
His speech at the convention drew the biggest audience and the most audience questions and applause. Somewhat to his own embarrassment, his talk also lasted the longest. After his speech, he was swarmed by scientists who had more questions.
“Everybody loves prediction,” said Lisa Grant, an earthquake scientist at UC Irvine.
To many quake experts, the warm reception Keilis-Borok received underscores how much scientists desire reliable earthquake predictions, even though many believe quakes result from a random process that may never be precisely predictable.
The Keilis-Borok team does not predict the exact date, place or magnitude of a quake. Rather, it uses general times and locations.
For example, in June the team predicted that a quake of at least 6.4 would hit a portion of the California coast somewhere between Fort Bragg and Cambria -- a 310-mile-long area. They said the quake would occur sometime before March 2004. On Dec. 22, a 6.5-magnitude temblor struck six miles northeast of San Simeon, on the southern edge of the team’s boundary. Two people died in Paso Robles, and the quake caused $250 million in damage.
Keilis-Borok and his team also predicted last year that a quake would hit Japan’s northern island region. A magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck off Hokkaido on Sept. 26.
Caltech seismologist Egill Hauksson, one of the most respected earthquake experts in the country, said that if Keilis-Borok had correctly predicted the quake in the desert area, the seismic community would have no choice but to consider that it was not just a coincidence. Already, a state quake council has taken the unusual step of calling for further research into Keilis-Borok’s work, saying it could have merit.
Though scientists have long tried to predict earthquakes, until now they have found little success over the long term. Chinese officials, for example, garnered great publicity when they successfully predicted one temblor. But they then missed several others over the next few years, eroding their credibility
The Keilis-Borok team uses what it considers “precursory chains” of small quakes to fashion its predictions. For example, the prediction of the California coast earthquake was based on a pattern of smaller temblors in the region.
But many scientists are not fully sold on the method. Hauksson said that if just one quake in the chain was missed, or was included by mistake, that would change the whole prediction. In any event, a prediction of a temblor over such a vast area and over so long a time frame might not be terribly useful, said Lucy Jones, who is in charge of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Pasadena office.
Additionally, some seismic experts are concerned that, as Keilis-Borok’s predictions reach the general public, the nuances and caveats will be lost.
Bill Ellsworth, head of the earthquake hazards program for the U.S. Geological Survey on the West Coast, said he wished the public had an accurate appreciation of what the Keilis-Borok team was predicting.
“I run into so many people who think he has said his quake will come on Sept. 5,” Ellsworth said. “What he has said is that it will come -- if it does come -- any time between now and Sept. 5.”
Before coming to America, Keilis-Borok was a well-known expert on seismology in the former Soviet Union, so highly regarded that he was pressed into service during arms-control talks to reveal methods of distinguishing between earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions.
He said he began to focus his efforts on earthquake prediction after realizing the dire threat that temblors posed to an increasingly urban society.
“It is pivotal for understanding the chaos of geological phenomena,” he said in an interview.
Keilis-Borok tried many methods over the years for predicting temblors. But he dismissed them after failing to predict the timing of several major quakes in the mid-1990s, including those in Northridge and in Kobe, Japan.
He is the first to admit that his prediction method using precursory chains is not foolproof. He thinks there is a 50% chance that his predicted desert quake will happen, and he is quick to note that it covers a large area.
“This area goes from the southeast Mojave Desert to the Salton Sea,” he said.
But given his track record, he hopes seismologists will focus on the region so that, if there is a quake, it can be fully studied.
“It gives, in my opinion, sufficient reasons to analyze more data and to put more seismographic instruments in the area of alarm in order to ambush the predicted event,” he said.
Keilis-Borok said his team was also predicting two other earthquakes. But other than saying the areas involved are outside California, he would not divulge their locations publicly for fear of creating alarm.
The scientist first studied in California four decades ago.
He started traveling to Western Europe and the U.S. in the early 1960s and has been a visiting professor at UCLA, Purdue, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard and universities in Rome and Trieste, Italy.
He moved his primary base of operations to UCLA’s Institute of Geophysics and department of earth and planetary sciences in 1999.
He still travels frequently to his home city of Moscow to consult members of his far-flung research team, which includes people in Paris and the Middle East.
Keilis-Borok said earthquakes were not the only things he predicted.
He said he and Allen Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C., had also forecast -- with some success -- the popular vote in U.S. presidential elections.