Ukraine Leaning West in Vote

KIEV, Ukraine —  Opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko claimed victory early today in Ukraine’s fiercely contested presidential revote, thanking jubilant supporters whose weeks of protests he credited with opening a new democratic era for this former Soviet state.

Since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, “we were independent but not free,” Yushchenko declared to thousands of backers gathered long after midnight in central Kiev, where they staged massive demonstrations this month that forced a rerun of what was widely seen as a rigged November runoff election.

“Now we have an independent and free country.... We were against probably the most cynical regime in Europe, and today, the Ukrainian people won.”

With ballots from more than 95% of precincts counted, the Western-leaning Yushchenko held a commanding lead of 54% to 42% over his competitor, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, who favors closer ties with Russia. A key exit poll financed in part by the U.S. Embassy showed Yushchenko likely to win by about the same margin. Turnout in the country of 48 million was estimated at 75%.

Yanukovich declared shortly after polls closed that he still believed he would win. But he made other comments sounding more like a man who thought he had probably lost.

“I expect to win,” Yanukovich said at a news conference. “But if I am defeated ... I will be in tough opposition. They will see what opposition means.”

Yanukovich and his aides also said that they planned to file legal challenges over alleged voting irregularities and that their supporters might take to the streets in protest.

“We will defend the rights of our voters and the rights of the Ukrainian people using all means allowed by the law,” he said.

That would be a repetition of the tactics used by Yushchenko’s side when Yanukovich was declared the official winner of the Nov. 21 runoff balloting. Those results were later ruled invalid because of fraud.

The presidential race began with an Oct. 31 election that had 24 candidates and ended in a virtual tie between Yushchenko and Yanukovich. The winner of Sunday’s vote will replace Leonid D. Kuchma, who is stepping down after 10 years in power and had designated Yanukovich as his preferred successor.

Sunday’s revote was set by the Supreme Court, which ruled that in the Nov. 21 voting, authorities had systematically inflated Yanukovich’s official total to give him a narrow victory. It ruled in the midst of what has been dubbed the Orange Revolution -- 17 days of massive protests by as many as 150,000 Yushchenko supporters decked out in orange, his campaign color.

Addressing his supporters in the capital’s Independence Square early today, Yushchenko recalled those demonstrations, which went on nearly 24 hours a day in freezing temperatures. “You have suffered for today’s victory,” he said about 3 a.m. “My first words of thanks, my first bow, is to you.”

The bitterness of the campaign intensified in September, when Yushchenko suddenly became ill and accused authorities of poisoning him in an assassination attempt. This month, his doctors at a private clinic in Vienna said tests confirmed that he was the victim of dioxin poisoning, which has disfigured his face with pockmarks, cysts and darkened areas, and caused him pain and other symptoms.

Yushchenko has said he believes there is enough evidence in the case to solve it, but that a full investigation should await the conclusion of the presidential election.

At a news conference before heading to Independence Square, Yushchenko declared that “today, we are turning the page on disrespect for the people, lies, censorship and violence.”

“The people who dragged Ukraine into the abyss are becoming a thing of the past today, at this very moment,” he said. “This is a great achievement for everyone. An era of great new democracy begins. Tens of millions of Ukrainians have dreamed of it. I am convinced that to be a citizen of Ukraine today is fashionable, stylish and appealing.”

A few months ago, “some may have not known in which part of the world Ukraine is,” Yushchenko said. “Today, the world begins every morning with one thought: What is happening in Ukraine, and how is this victory for democracy achieved?”

Soon after, addressing the festive gathering in the square, Yushchenko pledged to run a “new, fair and professional government.”

Yushchenko has promised to crack down on corruption, seek closer ties with the United States and the European Union, and complete the nation’s transformation to a market economy. But today, he stressed the nation’s independence.

“The future of our country depends not on Moscow, not on Poland, not America, not on Europe,” he said. “The future of Ukraine depends on us.... I know that my nation deserves St. Nicholas and Father Frost. Santa Claus put under our pillow the present we deserved.”

Yushchenko’s apparent victory opens “a new page of Ukrainian history” that will be marked by “the spirit of liberty,” Oleksa Volynsky, 21, a student, said at the end of the rally. “I see new forces, young forces, with a new spirit and a new mentality.”

“I am very, very proud of my country,” added his friend Tanya Ivashkivska, 20, also a student.

A Yushchenko win would be a disappointment for people like Igor Ganaga, 18, a student whose parents were born in Russia. Yanukovich pledged during the campaign to make Russian a second official language.

“I want Ukraine to become closer to Russia,” Ganaga said after voting. “Russians and Ukrainians have the same traditions.... Yanukovich is honest and fair. He increased salaries and pensions.”

International election observers said Sunday that there appeared to be far fewer irregularities than in the previous two rounds of voting. Most observer missions, however, were withholding formal comment until this afternoon.

At his news conference, Yanukovich charged that many of his elderly supporters had been unable to vote, either because they could not get to polling stations or because they ran into difficulties casting ballots when they did.

“These people ... were humiliated today,” he said. “I mean, elderly people who came to polling stations and could not vote -- the people who built this country, whom we should thank for everything we have.... I will not say how many people did not vote, but it is a large part of people who simply could not get to polling stations, and even if they got there, they were not allowed to vote.”

Yanukovich’s power base is in largely Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, whereas Yushchenko’s support lies mainly in the western Ukrainian-speaking part of the country and in Kiev, the capital. That, combined with the bitterness of the contest, has led to concerns over regional tensions or separatist efforts.

On Sunday, Yanukovich stressed his support for national unity but said there should be political reforms allowing for a stronger role for opposition forces.

“I support Ukraine’s unity, the idea that Ukraine’s laws should apply to everybody in the same degree regardless of who is in power,” Yanukovich said. “No matter what the election outcome will be, we will definitely insist on the adoption of a law ... so that the opposition has a status in this country and can counterbalance the authorities.”

Yanukovich said that if Yushchenko won, he would be able to congratulate him “only with regret, because if such a victory takes place, this will be an example of coming to power using not democratic means, but revolutionary ones, violating laws and the constitution.”

Nadiya Luchko, 56, a retired engineer who was at the post-midnight rally, said she thought that the most important thing about Yushchenko’s apparent victory was that “we won’t be ashamed of this person to represent our country in other countries.”

Many Yushchenko supporters have sharply criticized Yanukovich for having been arrested and imprisoned twice as a youth, on robbery and assault charges, although a court expunged the convictions from his record decades ago.

Luchko said that over the last month she and friends spent many evenings in the square to back Yushchenko.

“We trust him,” she said. “He’s an honest person. We understand we were lied to. If all the elections had been honest, the results would always have been the same for Yushchenko.”

If Yushchenko comes out on top with a margin of victory of more than 10 percentage points, “he should become president smoothly, but if it’s less than 10% there might be conflicts,” Luchko predicted.

“His supporters might come to Kiev,” explained her friend, Alla Goreltseva, 51. “But I don’t think it would be that big a thing. We would welcome them warmly.”

Luchko recalled that during the protests after the November balloting, some Yanukovich supporters came to Kiev from the east, and there were fears of clashes. But none materialized, and some Yanukovich backers accepted assistance such as food or warm clothing from Yushchenko supporters.

“The police are more or less on our side, which would help,” Luchko added.

The only note of uncertainty about Yushchenko’s victory came at the very end of the celebration in the square, when one of his associates stepped to the microphone and announced that yet another rally would begin at 4 p.m. today.

“We will have to make sure that our victory is final,” he declared.