Local Home Prices Up Sharply

The growth in Ventura County’s median home price in January outpaced price increases in the rest of Southern California, jumping nearly 27% over last January to a record $430,000.

The higher median price, reflecting a 26.8% increase, came as the number of residences sold declined, mainly because of limited supply. In January, 1,014 homes were sold locally, down 14.1% from 1,181 sold in the first month of 2003.

Los Angeles County saw its median home price -- the point at which half the homes sold for less and half for more -- increase 26.6% to $352,000. Orange County retained the region’s most expensive median at $450,000, an increase of 22%.

Overall, the median price in six Southland counties increased 21.2% to $343,000, according to statistics released this week by DataQuick Information Systems.

“Prices are clearly on the upswing, there’s no doubt about that,” said John Karevoll, an analyst with DataQuick, which collects information on sales of new and previously occupied homes and condominiums.

Karevoll points out that Ventura County, the least populated of the counties surveyed with 799,000 residents, tends to have more volatile monthly price swings than neighboring counties.

For example, the 1,014 homes sold in the county last month were a fraction of the 8,030 that changed hands in Los Angeles County and totaled less than half the number of homes sold in the next smallest county, San Bernardino, at 2,914. Sales in Riverside and San Diego counties were also tallied.

“The way these numbers work, next month we could be back to $420,000,” Karevoll said. “When you have such light activity, prices tend to jump around a lot more.”

Debbie Rodgers, president of the Conejo Valley Assn. of Realtors, said a glimpse at her area’s inventory showed how scarce homes on the market were becoming. This week there are about 275 homes listed, compared with some 600 on a typical day in 2001. The seasonal nature of real estate sales, however, also explains last month’s lower numbers, she said.

“January’s numbers are always going to be lower, because you’re coming off the holidays,” Rodgers said. “When you will see more inventory is from March until June, when people want to move around the end of the school year.”

The limited supply appears to cause the greatest pinch in the lower price ranges, which historically attract most first-time buyers, said the Westlake Realtor.

“And entry-level homes -- a townhome, not a house -- are going for $350,000 to $425,000. Anything under $400,000 is barely available,” said Rodgers, adding that multiple offers are still the norm.

Ojai Realtor Don Edwards, president of the west county’s Coastal Assn. of Realtors, said his city was experiencing similar supply problems. This week there are 57 single-family detached homes listed in the Ojai area, down from 78 in mid-February 2003.

With fewer rivals out there, some sellers have priced their homes as much as 15% or 20% above current market rates, waiting for appreciation to catch up to their asking price. The result, Edwards said, is a hike in the value of nearby homes.

Such price escalation causes buyers to consider neighborhoods in Santa Paula, Fillmore and Oxnard rather than more expensive ones in Ojai, Ventura and Camarillo, he said.

“As long as you have people needing housing, you’re going to have continued demand in Ventura County,” said Mark Schniepp, director of California Economic Forecast.

He expects the local median price from the California Assn. of Realtors, which only tracks existing single-family, detached homes sold by professionals, to exceed $500,000 when released later this month.

The hot housing market prompted local builders to begin construction on nearly 3,600 dwellings in 2003, the highest total in three years.

A closer look at DataQuick’s January figures shows the median price for new homes rising 22.2% to $595,000, with the median for existing homes climbing 30.7% to $456,000.

Ventura County had a median price of $389,000 for all of 2003, according to DataQuick. Karevoll said that if mortgage interest rates remained below 6%, he would not be surprised if the annual figure rose to $460,000 in 2004.

Economists at UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast expect median home prices to grow more slowly this year, to a 12-month average of $424,700. This would be followed by an annual median of $460,200 next year, according to the university’s annual forecast presented Thursday morning at a conference in Oxnard.

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Hot market

January figures for Ventura County since 1988, with median prices and number of units sold.

*--* Year Price Sales 1988 $166,000 938

1989 222,000 1,241

1990 225,000 752

1991 214,000 405

1992 202,000 449

1993 184,000 743

1994 188,000 473

1995 181,000 585

1996 190,000 621

1997 200,000 672

1998 212,000 748

1999 228,000 773

2000 254,000 815

2001 258,000 867

2002 284,000 1,115

2003 339,000 1,181

2004 430,000 1,014

*--*

Source: DataQuick Information Systems

Los Angeles Times

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January home sales by ZIP Code

Units sold and median prices for real estate in Ventura County in January compared with the previous January. The figures include new and resale homes and condominiums.

*--* Units sold Median prices City ZIP Code 2003 2004 2003 2004 Camarillo 93010 57 45 $369,000 $435,000 93012 62 48 329,000 496,000

Fillmore 93015 24 24 262,500 370,500

Moorpark 93021 62 34 385,000 450,000

Oak Park 91377 32 16 492,500 569,500

Ojai 93023 32 35 375,000 459,500

Oxnard 93030 88 49 289,250 436,500 93033 89 73 208,000 353,500 93035 54 44 320,000 487,250

Port 93041 38 37 265,000 298,000 Hueneme

Santa 93060 37 25 295,000 254,000 Paula

Simi 93063 80 71 285,000 413,000 Valley 93065 87 87 331,500 416,000

Thousand 91320 83 49 412,000 485,000 Oaks 91360 59 40 365,000 479,500 91361 20 19 413,250 755,000 91362 71 64 468,000 519,000

Ventura 93001 26 35 289,000 459,500 93003 64 78 315,000 405,000 93004 36 23 359,500 435,000

Countywide 1,181 1,014 339,000 430,000

*--*

Source: DataQuick Information Systems

Los Angeles Times

Note: Countywide totals include sales with unknown ZIP Codes. Median prices include unincorporated areas not shown.