SoCal Growth Expected to Lag Behind Nation’s

Southern California’s economy will grow modestly in the next six to nine months and more slowly than the overall U.S. economy, according to a projection released Wednesday.

Cal State Fullerton said its Southern California index of leading economic indicators increased 0.21% in the fourth quarter of 2003. The rise, following a 0.52% gain in the third quarter, lags behind increases in leading indicators for the nation, suggesting relatively mild growth in the region, said economist Adrian R. Fleissig, author of the index. The region’s sluggish job picture was a key negative factor in the index.

But increases in the indicator for five successive quarters suggest that it is “very unlikely” the Southland will suffer an economic slowdown before year-end, he said.

The index projects economic activity for the area consisting of Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura and Imperial counties.

Three of the index’s seven components -- Pacific region consumer confidence, the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index and the interest rate spread -- had a positive effect on the indicator in the fourth quarter. Negative effects came from the national real money supply and from Southern California building permits, nonfarm employment and unemployment.