Right Spot, Right Time for Tapit?

Had the comment come from anyone but Michael Dickinson, the speaker would have been drummed out of the trainers’ lodge, posthaste.

But Dickinson has been nicknamed “the mad genius.” Many of the things the former English steeplechase jockey says and does seem loopy, but the bottom line is that he wins a high percentage of races -- more than 20% many years -- and he is a proven winner of races that count.

So when Dickinson suggests that he’s not going to win Saturday’s $1-million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, rival trainers have a right to wonder if his first name should be Josh.

“Tapit is a very good horse,” Dickinson said of the colt who’s undefeated in his only two starts, “but he’s not 100% fit for this race. He’s fit to run, but he’s not fit to win. I’ll be happy with third place.”

Well. Chuck Streva, the oddsmaker at Gulfstream, ranks Tapit third on the morning line for the 1 1/8-mile race, but at 5-1 he’s not exactly blowing off Dickinson’s gray horse. The favorites are Read The Footnotes, who’s 7-5 after winning five of six starts, including the Fountain of Youth Stakes here a month ago, and Value Plus, 3-1 based on a powerful seven-furlong victory the same day in an allowance race.

Master David, whom trainer Bobby Frankel had hoped to ship to Gulfstream from California, will not run in the Florida Derby because of a fever, and is probably headed for the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 10. With Master David’s defection went Frankel’s chance of becoming the first back-to-back winner of this significant Kentucky Derby prep since Jimmy Jones doubled up with Gen. Duke and Tim Tam in 1957-58. Frankel won here last year with Empire Maker.

Dickinson has never had a starter in either the Florida or Kentucky derbies, but in Tapit he has a bona fide colt who is attempting, four months after his last start, to shake the cobwebs in a Grade I race.

“Saturday’s race is not the target,” said Dickinson, who flew Tapit here Tuesday from his Maryland farm. “The objective is May 1 [Kentucky Derby day], and we’re still on target for that.”

Maybe, maybe not. There’s a first time for everything at Churchill Downs -- even Funny Cide, a New York-bred gelding, won the Derby last year -- but the Derby hasn’t been won by a horse with only four career starts since Exterminator in 1918.

Dickinson will not say he’s running Tapit on Saturday against his will, but the switch in jockeys, from Ramon Dominguez to Edgar Prado, was not the trainer’s idea, and Wednesday morning at the barn Dickinson referred several questions to David Fiske, the manager of owner Ron Winchell’s Oakwind Farm near Lexington, Ky.

Winchell is the son of Verne Winchell, who went from doughnuts to dollars before dying, at 87, in November 2002. Two months earlier, the elder Winchell bought Tapit at a Keeneland auction for $625,000.

“We’ve got to make our move and see what we’ve got,” Fiske said recently.

What he has in a trainer is the 54-year-old Dickinson, who won the Breeders’ Cup Mile twice with Da Hoss, in 1996 and 1998. The hard part was 1998 -- Da Hoss, then a 6-year-old, had only one prep race, which came after he hadn’t run in two years.

Dickinson has pulled other rabbits out of the hat: Cetewayo, a former claiming horse, won the Grade I Sword Dancer Handicap at Saratoga in 1998, and after two years on the shelf won the Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct in 2000.

Last fall at Laurel Park, about two hours after Tapit had won the Laurel Futurity, Dickinson saddled A Huevo, a 7-year-old gelding, for his victory in the Frank De Francis Memorial Dash, a Grade I race. A Huevo, owned by Mark Hopkins, had run only six times before the De Francis and before August of last year hadn’t raced in four years. He had had four knee chips, a suspensory ligament injury and had been lame three times while Dickinson persevered.

“This might be Michael’s greatest training achievement,” Hopkins said.

Earlier, Tapit was to take a Fair Grounds route to the Kentucky Derby, but sore shins and wet weather forced him to sit out 19 days of training. The Florida Derby has become an ambitious backup plan. And while Dickinson might be at Gulfstream reluctantly, his formula hasn’t changed.

“Da Hoss had already won one Breeders’ Cup race when we brought him back,” Dickinson said. “It’s easy to win a race off a layoff. You have to have the best horse in the race. The rest is easy.”

*

Gary Stevens will sub for the ailing Julie Krone aboard Halfbridled in Saturday’s Santa Anita Oaks.... Pleasantly Perfect, scratched from the Santa Anita Handicap, is expected to leave Saturday to run in the $6-million Dubai World Cup on March 27.... Southern Image, the Big ‘Cap winner, is headed for the Metropolitan Mile Handicap at Belmont Park on May 31.

*

(Begin Text of Infobox)

Florida Derby Draw

A field of 10 3-year-olds entered Saturday’s $1-million Florida Derby (Grade I), a Kentucky Derby prep race, at Gulfstream Park:

*--* PP Horse Jockey Trainer Odds 1 The Cliff’s Edge Shane Sellers Nick Zito 12 2 Friends Lake Richard Migliore John Kimmel 15 3 Read The Footnotes Jerry Bailey Rick Violette 7-5 4 Tapit Edgar Prado Michael Dickinson 5 5 Farnum Alley Pat Day Tony Reinstedler 20 6 Sir Oscar Julio Garcia Manuel Azpurua 8 7 Notorious Rogue Joe Bravo Anthony Reinstedler 20 8 Value Plus John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 3 9 Frisky Spider Eddie King Jr. Bob Durso 20 10 Smoocher Jose Santos David Bell 12

*--*

NTRA’s top-ranked 3-year olds -- 1. Read The Footnotes; 2. Eurosilver; 3. Birdstone; 4. Wimbledon; 5. Action This Day; 6. Imperialism; 7. Master David; 8. Halfbridled; 9. St Averil; 10. Lion Heart.