Up for Grabs

By Robyn Norwood

March 15, 2004 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

It’s not quite anybody’s ballgame.

Let’s go ahead and say that Liberty, the school founded by Jerry Falwell, is one of the teams with absolutely no chance of winning college basketball’s national championship.

But the NCAA tournament is no longer the Duke Invitational, and unlike last season, when Kentucky entered the tournament with a 23-game winning streak, there is no preordained king that must be toppled.

To illustrate that a fresh face might have a chance, consider this:

Saint Joseph’s -- a Jesuit school with a 3,200-seat gym built in 1949 -- is among the official favorites to reach the Final Four in San Antonio. Along with Kentucky, Duke and Stanford, Saint Joe’s was awarded a No. 1 seeding when the NCAA tournament field was announced Sunday.

But that doesn’t mean those four will convene in Texas.

Last season, three of the four top-seeded teams lost before the Final Four, and third-seeded Syracuse -- a team led by freshman Carmelo Anthony that was unranked when the season began -- walked away with the prize.

Tempting as it is, don’t count on an underdog to win. Although a No. 1 seeding is far from a guarantee of reaching the Final Four, 12 of the last 20 teams to win the championship have been No. 1s.

The NCAA and CBS -- in the midst of a $6-billion deal to broadcast the tournament through 2014 -- could benefit from a team such as Saint Joe’s doing well.

CBS probably was rooting for the Hawks and Stanford to carry their undefeated records into the NCAA tournament, capturing people’s imaginations as they chased Indiana’s record as the last undefeated national champion, in 1976.

That’s because it wasn’t hard to notice that when CBS aired a highlight reel of tournament moments to open the pairings show Sunday, almost all of them were more than a decade old.

Twenty-five years after Magic Johnson’s Michigan State team beat Larry Bird’s Indiana State team as they began the rivalry that made the NBA what it is today, that 1979 championship game remains the highest-rated telecast in tournament history.

With a 24.1 rating and 38 share, it was roughly double last season’s 12.6 rating and 19 share, which itself was down 26% from the season before, perhaps in part because viewers were tuned to the just-begun war in Iraq.

The office-pool frenzy that is March Madness was built largely on the drama of upsets such as North Carolina State’s crazy last-second victory over Houston’s Phi Slama Jama team in 1983 and Villanova’s upset of Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown team in 1985. (Villanova, seeded eighth, remains the lowest-seeded team ever to win.)

But as more of the best players cut short their college stays -- Anthony took his ball and championship ring to the NBA after one season -- dominant teams don’t stay together very long.

One has to wonder: Can there be a David without a Goliath?

Another thing: Sometimes, underdogs grow up.

Gonzaga, the darling of years past, is now a member of the establishment after earning a No. 2 seeding.

The Zags open with Valparaiso on Thursday in Seattle, and technically cannot pull an upset before a potential regional final against top-seeded Kentucky.

But here is an important point: The Zags and Saint Joe’s came by their seedings honestly.

Although CBS analyst Billy Packer -- an Atlantic Coast Conference loyalist who played for Wake Forest in the 1962 Final Four -- criticized Saint Joe’s No. 1 seeding, it was not simply a gift for remaining undefeated until a 20-point loss to Xavier in the Atlantic 10 tournament.

Saint Joe’s Ratings Percentage Index -- the complex computer formula used to help select and seed the field -- was as high as No. 1 during the season and was No. 3 even after the loss, according to expert Jerry Palm’s ratings.

“I don’t think the committee was particularly caught up in the fact they were undefeated, although it makes a good story line,” said Iowa Athletic Director Bob Bowlsby, chairman of the selection committee.

“Saint Joe’s played the No. 1 nonconference schedule in the country. They didn’t just play a good schedule. They played the best, based on RPI.”

One of Saint Joe’s opponents was Gonzaga, a team the Hawks defeated by seven in the first game of the season.

Two years ago, there was considerable controversy when Gonzaga was seeded sixth in its regional -- or in the 21-24 range overall -- despite being ranked No. 6 in the nation. But Gonzaga’s RPI that season was 21.

This season, Gonzaga’s RPI was No. 9, meaning it was only a tiny favor to nudge the Zags ahead of Pittsburgh, No. 8 in the RPI, to seed the Zags second.

“Gonzaga is on the ‘2’ line because it stood on its own portfolio,” Bowlsby said. “Their only losses this season were to Saint Joe’s and Stanford, which until two weeks ago were the only two undefeated teams in the country. We think a lot of Gonzaga. I think this is the best team they’ve had.”

As for Pitt, which would have been in the running for a top seeding except for a three-point loss to Connecticut in the Big East final, the Panthers ended up a No. 3.

The favored scheduling strategy of UCLA Coach Ben Howland, the former Pitt coach, received no endorsement.

“Pitt played a nonconference schedule ranked somewhere around 250,” Bowlsby said.

In addition to the debate about seedings Sunday, there was the usual who’s in-who’s out controversy.

Most surprising omission: Utah State, the 25-3 Big West regular-season champion that was upset by Cal State Northridge on a last-minute three-pointer in the conference tournament.

Among the bubble teams that got in: Air Force and Richmond.

Utah State, despite a top-25 ranking in the Associated Press poll and a No. 43 RPI that made it seem safe, fared poorly when the committee compared it with No. 70 Air Force (22-6).

“The Mountain West is the No. 7-ranked conference in the country, and Air Force won their league by two games,” Bowlsby said. (However, Air Force lost a nonconference game last month to Texas Pan American, No. 212 in the RPI.)

The Big West, Bowlsby left unstated, ranked 18th among conferences, and Bowlsby also criticized Utah State’s nonconference schedule, which was unambitious except for state rivals Utah and Brigham Young.

“Whining is not going to accomplish a whole lot,” Utah State Coach Stew Morrill said. “You win 25 ballgames and you go 17-1 in your league, and everyone says no matter what you’re in. Well, no matter what happened, we were not in. It really sends a tough message to mid-majors out there.”

But those who aren’t in are quickly forgotten.

Now it’s about those who are.

Among the trendy picks to make noise will be Maryland, which was on the bubble but ended up a No. 4 after a stirring run through the ACC tournament that ended with an overtime upset of Duke.

Another is Washington, which gave Stanford its only loss and beat Arizona three times to overcome a final RPI of No. 60 and earn a No. 8 seeding -- better than No. 9 Arizona.

“They should have,” said Arizona Coach Lute Olson, whose streak of consecutive tournament appearances reached 20. “Based on head-to-head competition, and based on the last 10 to 15 games, they deserved a higher seed.”

The team that is lying in the weeds a bit is second-seeded Connecticut, which won the Big East tournament.

Many consider UConn, No. 1 early in the season, to be the best team in the country -- but only if center Emeka Okafor’s unpredictable back holds up under the rigors of the tournament.

Oklahoma State -- a team that would have been considered for a No. 1 seeding if its Big 12 title game hadn’t ended too late Sunday for the committee to debate its merits -- is another of the strong field of No. 2s, along with Mississippi State.

But if there is a compelling story going into the tournament, it is Saint Joe’s, an undersized team that dominated the Atlantic 10, but some figure might not have gone .500 in the ACC.

Get ready for lots of talk about the Saint Joe’s Hawk, a student mascot with an endowed scholarship whose job is to flap throughout the game.

The time-honored Saint Joe’s cheer is “The Hawk will never die!” part of an old fight song to the tune of the “Battle Hymn of the Republic.”

Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the Hawk

He is flying through the doorway ‘cause he never, ever walks

He is flying through the rafters like a loyal, loyal Hawk

The Hawk will never die!

Glory, glory what a helluva way to fly!

The Hawk will never die!

If he’s still flapping come April 5, CBS will have itself a helluva television show.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

20 Wins, No Tournament

Division I teams that won 20 or more games and were not invited to play in either the NCAA tournament or the National Invitation Tournament: