Duke Looks Poised to Rise in the South

This has quickly been deemed the toughest of the four regions, and it’s tough to argue. The bracket contains a veritable “Who’s Who” of coaching legends: Mike Krzyzewski (Duke), Lute Olson (Arizona), Rick Pitino (Louisville), Roy Williams (North Carolina) and Bob Huggins (Cincinnati).

And how about some of the possible matchups?

The South could produce Duke vs. Arizona, the teams that played for the 2001 national championship, in a second-round game at Raleigh, N.C.

And fans on Tobacco Road are already frothing at the prospect of a Duke vs. North Carolina collision should both teams advance to the regional final.

Best first-round game: No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Air Force. It’s all about expectations. North Carolina fans will expect their Tar Heels to take care of first-round business, but Air Force will be flying high after earning its first NCAA bid since 1962. This should be a terrific battle of coaching wits pitting Williams vs. Air Force’s Joe Scott, a disciple of Pete Carril and the deliberate “Princeton” offense that has caused so many teams fits in NCAA history. In 1989, No. 16 Princeton came within a point of defeating No. 1 Georgetown. In 1996, of course, Princeton knocked out UCLA, the defending national champion.

Upset in the making: No. 13 East Tennessee State over No. 4 Cincinnati.

East Tennessee State has a 5-foot-7 dynamo sophomore point guard in Tim Smith, a fearless player who was the most valuable player in the Southern Conference tournament each of the last two years. Cincinnati has lost to a lower-seeded team in three of the last four NCAA tournaments. In 2000, as a No. 2, Cincinnati lost in the second round to No. 7 Tulsa. In the second round of 2002, No. 8 UCLA defeated the No. 1 Bearcats and, in the opening round last year, No. 9 Gonzaga pulled off the slight upset over No. 8 Cincinnati.

Impact coach: This is sort of like trying to pick your favorite Beatle. Olson and Pitino have won NCAA championships, Williams and Huggins have led teams to the Final Four, but it’s tough to bet against Krzyzewski, who is widely considered the best college coach since John Wooden.

Impact player: Luol Deng, freshman forward, Duke. He was called this season’s Carmelo Anthony by some, a freshman with star power who could carry his team to a national title. Deng started slowly, looking to defer to teammates as he developed his game, but he got better and better as the season went along. He was selected third-team all-ACC and finished in the top 10 in scoring, rebounding, field-goal percentage and blocked shots.

The pick: Although this region is as tough as a $2 steak, picking against Duke is like picking against a sunrise. The Blue Devils have the most talent and the best coach.

What more could you want?

*--* No. 1 DUKE (27-5)

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First-round opponent: No. 16 Alabama State, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 3, at Michigan State, 72-50; Jan. 17, Wake Forest, 84-72; March 6, North Carolina, 70-65.

Disturbing losses: Nov. 29, Purdue, 78-68; Feb. 15, North Carolina State, 78-74.

Top players: So. J.J. Redick, G, 16.6 ppg; Sr. Chris Duhon, G, 10.1 ppg, 6.3 apg; Fr. Luol Deng, F, 14.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg; So. Shelden Williams, F, 12.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg.

Skinny: There hasn’t been a dominant No. 1 team in college basketball this season, but Duke has been consistently one of the best. A 12-point collapse to Maryland in the closing minutes of the ACC final raises some questions, but this squad still appears to have the right mixture of leadership (Duhon) and talent (Redick) to get to San Antonio. Redick might be the best pure shooter in the country (42% from three-point range) and Williams, when he stays out of foul trouble, provides enough muscle inside to keep teams honest. The X-factor is Deng. The 6-foot-8 freshman is a tough matchup, but he can be taken out of his game. He shot only one for 14 in a loss to Georgia Tech on March 3, but scored 25 points in a win over North Carolina three days later.

*--* No. 2 MISSISSIPPI STATE (25-3)

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First-round opponent: No. 15 Monmouth, Friday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 17, at Louisiana State, 64-54; Jan. 21, at Florida, 79-68; Feb. 28, at Vanderbilt, 72-69.

Disturbing losses: Feb. 21, Alabama, 77-73.

Top players: Sr. Timmy Bowers, G, 15.3 ppg, 4.7 apg; Jr. Lawrence Roberts, F, 17.0 ppg, 10.4 rpg; Sr. Branden Vincent, F, 7.0 ppg, 7.3 rpg.

Skinny: In Roberts and Bowers, the Bulldogs have one of the best inside-outside duos in the nation. Roberts is a transfer from Baylor who deserves All-American mention; he is a bull in the low post and also can hit the occasional 15-footer. There’s also a nice group of complementary players. The Bulldogs use their quickness to play good defense and their size to crash the boards. This is a team that could go a long way. Questions remain about the coaching acumen of Rick Stansbury, though.

*--* No. 3 TEXAS (23-7)

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First-round opponent: No. 14 Princeton, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 5, at Providence, 79-77; Jan. 13, Wake Forest, 94-81; Feb. 23, Kansas, 82-67.

Disturbing losses: Feb. 14, at Iowa State, 78-77; March 6, at Kansas State, 58-48.

Top players: Sr. Brandon Mouton, G, 13.6 ppg; Fr. P.J. Tucker, F, 10.9 ppg, 6.9 rpg; Sr. Royal Ivey, G, 9.1 ppg.

Skinny: Deep. Get scoring from their little guys, but pound away at opponents down low with a wave of big guys. Use 6-8, 228-pound Brian Boddicker, 6-8, 235-pound James Thomas, 6-8, 235-pound Brad Buckman and 6-9, 240-pound Jason Klotz. Boddicker is an effective outside shooter, which makes him an especially tough matchup.

*--* No. 4 CINCINNATI (24-6)

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First-round opponent: No. 13 East Tennessee State, Friday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 23, Dayton, 82-53; Feb. 21, at Louisville, 66-61 OT; Feb. 28, at Charlotte, 75-67.

Disturbing losses: Feb. 3, at Xavier, 71-69; March 4, at DePaul, 68-65.

Top players: Jr. Jason Maxiell, F, 13.9 ppg., 7.0 rpg.; Sr. Tony Bobbitt, G, 13.1 ppg.; Sr. Field Williams, G, 11.7 ppg.

Skinny: The Bearcats play a full-court, swarming defense that disrupts teams. Cincinnati started 13-0 and was ranked as high as No. 5 in the nation.

*--* No. 5 ILLINOIS (24-6)

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First-round opponent: No. 12 Murray State, Friday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 23, Missouri, 71-70; Feb. 10, Michigan State, 75-51; Feb. 18, Wisconsin, 65-57.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 10, Purdue, 58-54; Jan. 14, at Northwestern, 70-60; Jan. 24, at Wisconsin, 76-56.

Top players: So. Deron Williams, G, 13.8 ppg, 6.2 apg; So. Dee Brown, G, 13.0 ppg, 4.6 apg; Jr. Roger Powell, F, 11.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg; Jr. Luther Head, G, 11.5 ppg.

Skinny: The Illini won 10 in a row to close the regular season and won the school’s first Big Ten outright championship since 1952.

*--* No. 6 NORTH CAROLINA (18-10)

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First-round opponent: No. 11 Air Force, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 11, Georgia Tech, 103-88; Jan. 17, Connecticut, 86-83; Feb. 29, at North Carolina State, 71-64.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 31, Clemson, 81-72; Feb. 24, at Virginia, 74-72.

Top players: So. Rashad McCants, G, 20.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg; So. Sean May, C, 15.4 ppg, 10.0 rpg; So. Raymond Felton, G, 11.5 ppg, 7.2 apg.

Skinny: The Tar Heels are in the tournament for the first time in two years, but it’s been somewhat of a rocky season for first-year Coach Roy Williams. A week ago, North Carolina was a trendy pick to go deep in the tournament, but after two losses in a row, it’s impossible to predict which direction this team will go. Felton has the ability to give opponents fits, and though the enigmatic McCants doesn’t play any defense, he can score as well as any player in the country. The Tar Heels are determined to erase the Matt Doherty era with a strong showing, but if North Carolina goes deep in the tournament, the difference will be May, the 6-9 center with soft hands and great touch around the basket. May can dominate inside, but he can also disappear for long stretches if he doesn’t get the ball.

*--* No. 7 XAVIER (23-10)

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First-round opponent: No. 10 Louisville, Friday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 3, Alabama, 68-47; Feb. 21, Dayton, 67-60; March 6, at Temple, 70-69.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 14, at Duquesne, 71-58; Jan. 28, at George Washington, 81-60; Feb. 28, Duquesne, 74-68.

Top players: Sr. Romain Sato, G, 16.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.3 apg; Sr. Lionel Chalmers, G, 16.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.2 apg; Sr. Anthony Myles, F/C, 10.3 ppg, 6.6 rpg.

Skinny: Musketeers have won at least 20 games eight seasons in a row. Sato, a native of the Central African Republic, has started every game of his career. He is the only active Division I player with 1,800 points, 800 rebounds and 200 assists. He speaks six languages.

*--* No. 8 SETON HALL (20-9)

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First-round opponent: No. 9 Arizona, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 20, Syracuse, 74-67; Feb. 9, Pittsburgh, 68-67; March 7, at Rutgers, 66-64.

Disturbing losses: Nov. 28, Purdue, 75-63; Feb. 4, at West Virginia, 69-64.

Top players: Sr. Andre Barrett, G, 17.6 ppg, 5.9 apg; So. Kelly Whitney, F, 13.1 ppg, 6.7 rpg.

Skinny: Barrett drives the Pirates, scoring from outside and stretching a defense with his speed. With Whitney offering a stabilizing force inside, Seton Hall, normally tight on defense, is a dangerous, although inconsistent, team.

*--* No. 9 ARIZONA (20-9)

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First-round opponent: No. 8 Seton Hall, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 6, at Saint Louis, 68-67; Dec. 9, Texas, 91-83; Dec. 13, Marquette, 85-75.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 15, at USC, 99-90; Feb. 5, at California, 87-83; Feb. 21, at Oregon State, 90-84.

Top players: Jr. Salim Stoudamire, G, 16.5 ppg; So. Hassan Adams, G, 17.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg; Jr. Channing Frye, C, 16.0 ppg, 2.1 bpg.

Skinny: Arizona was a popular preseason pick to make a Final Four run but depth, or a lack thereof, haunted the Wildcats in Pacific 10 Conference play. Coach Lute Olson has been beside himself at times this season with the lack of passion and urgency from his players. Still, many of those same passion-less Wildcats will be in the NBA, sooner rather than later.

*--* No. 10 LOUISVILLE (20-9)

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First-round opponent: No. 7 Xavier, Friday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 27, at Kentucky, 65-56; Jan. 21, Cincinnati, 93-66; Feb. 28, Memphis, 68-60.

Disturbing losses: Feb. 17, at Texas Christian, 71-46.

Top players: So. Francisco Garcia, G, 16.5 ppg., 4.6 apg; Sr. Luke Whitehead, F, 11 ppg., 7.8 rpg; So. Taquan Dean, G, 10.5 ppg; Sr. Kendall Dartez, C, 5.1 rpg, 1.6 bpg.

Skinny: The Cardinals won 16 in a row after losing the season opener, then were 4-8 in their last 12 games. Injuries to Dean and Garcia were a factor. They can probably beat any team in the tournament or lose to any team in the tournament depending on the effectiveness of their press and whether their three-point shots are falling.

*--* No. 11 AIR FORCE (22-6)

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First-round opponent: No. 6 North Carolina, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 28, at California, 49-44; Jan. 24, Brigham Young, 74-52; Feb. 21, at Utah, 59-57.

Disturbing losses: Nov. 30, at Belmont, 46-38; Dec. 7, at Auburn, 68-49; Feb. 16, at Texas Pan American, 37-35.

Top players: Jr. Tim Keller, G, 11.3 ppg; So. Nick Welch, C, 11.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg; Sr. A.J. Kuhle, G, 8.1 ppg.

Skinny: The Falcons are the feel-good story of the season, having captured the hearts and minds, along with their first NCAA appearance since 1962, of the country with their throwback style. Joe Scott is a candidate for national coach of the year after successfully implementing the famed Princeton offense, complete with multiple screens and back-door cuts.

*--* No. 12 MURRAY STATE (28-5)

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First-round opponent: No. 5 Illinois, Friday.

Impressive victories: Nov. 29, Southern Mississippi, 94-54; Dec. 3, at Texas Christian, 73-67; Dec. 17, Southern Illinois, 68-64.

Disturbing losses: Jan. 15, Samford (Ala.), 61-58; Jan. 26, Texas A&M;, 80-68.

Top players: Sr. Cuthbert Victor, F,14.5 ppg, 10.3 rpg; Sr. Chris Shumate, G,11.7 ppg.

Skinny: First-year Coach Mick Cronin was well prepared. He worked for Bob Huggins at Cincinnati and Rick Pitino at Louisville.

*--* No. 13 EAST TENNESSEE STATE (27-5)

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First-round opponent: No. 4 Cincinnati, Friday.

Impressive victories: Nov. 21, at Houston, 65-51; Feb. 21, at Fresno State, 66-62;

Disturbing losses: Dec. 30, American, 71-66.

Top players: So. Tim Smith, PG, 17.4 ppg, 4.5 apg; Sr. Zakee Wadood, F, 14.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.8 spg; Sr. Jerald Fields, F, 13.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg.

Skinny: The Buccaneers want a fast pace, and Smith, a 5-9 blur, is just the guy to press the action. The Buccaneers play tough defense, averaging 11.6 steals. Wadood and Fields form a nice 1-2 punch in the frontcourt. Wadood, the Southern Conference player of the year, has range to about 15 feet, and Fields (6-7, 270) is a bull in the paint. If a power-conference school wants to run against the Buccaneers, it should do so at its own risk.

*--* No. 14 PRINCETON (20-7)

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First-round opponent: No. 3 Texas, Thursday.

Impressive victories: Jan. 30, at Brown, 64-49; March 9, at Pennsylvania, 76-70.

Disturbing losses: Dec. 5, UC Irvine, 57-55; Dec. 22, Lafayette, 47-44.

Top players: Jr. Judson Wallace, F, 15.5 ppg, 6.4 rpg; Jr. Will Venable, G, 10.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg.

Skinny: The Tigers have 20 victories for the 17th time. They finished 13-1 to win the Ivy League by three games and clinch their 23rd NCAA appearance. Like the 22 teams before it, this Tiger squad is well coached and full of good shooters. The Tigers have won nine in a row.

*--* No. 15 MONMOUTH (21-11)

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First-round opponent: No. 2 Mississippi State, Friday.

Impressive victories: Dec. 2, at Siena, 89-76; Dec. 10, Hofstra, 87-79.

Disturbing losses: Feb. 5, at Central Connecticut State, 73-54; Feb. 23, at Fairleigh Dickinson, 86-64.

Top players: Jr. Blake Hamilton, F, 16.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg; So. Tyler Azzarelli, PG, career-high 19 points in championship game.

Skinny: Defensive-oriented team yielded only one 30-point half in three conference tournament games. At its best at home, where it won all 13 games, including conference championship.

*--* No. 16 ALABAMA STATE (16-14)

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First-round opponent: No. 1 Duke, Thursday.

Impressive victory: Dec. 14, Florida A&M;, 75-69

Disturbing loss: Dec. 17, Middle Tennessee, 71-48

Top players: Sr. Malcolm Campbell, G, 12.9 ppg; Jr. Ralfael Golden, G, 12.4 ppg; Sr. Xavier Oliver, F, 6.8 rpg.

Skinny: Alabama State won its second SWAC title in four seasons. The Hornets advanced to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2001, when they fell to Michigan State in the first round.

Team capsules compiled by writers from Tribune Co. newspapers.