A Time to Tune Up the Cabinet

WASHINGTON —  President Bush has begun preparing a second-term Cabinet that will likely lose a few well-known faces but will retain many key players and continue to be dominated by its most conservative members, say administration aides and GOP insiders.

The expected departure of Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, a relative moderate, will calm the internal debates that have raged between conservatives and moderates since the beginning of Bush’s first term.

And the new appointments are expected to consolidate the influence of Vice President Dick Cheney in the national security arena, aides say.

People close to the White House predict there will not be a major exodus in the short term. Even Powell is expected to stay in his current position for several more months.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has made it known that he wants to remain in office to oversee the efforts of U.S. forces to overcome the insurgency in Iraq, officials say. Rumsfeld has asked the White House to allow him to remain for two years, said one prominent Republican, and made a point of dropping by the Oval Office on Wednesday morning to congratulate the president.

Bush lavished praise on Rumsfeld early in his term, but it has become less clear how the president feels about him after 20 months of strife in Iraq. If Rumsfeld left soon, it would be seen by some as a sign that the president has been more troubled by the conduct of the war than he has been willing to admit.

Condoleezza Rice, President Bush’s national security advisor, could take over at the Pentagon if Rumsfeld leaves, which would allow Bush to take credit for appointing the first female Defense secretary, Republican insiders say. Rice could also be appointed secretary of State, but she has let it be known that she would prefer the challenge of running the government’s largest agency to making the diplomatic rounds, according to people who know her.

Rice has told friends she intends to return to Stanford University, but Republican observers believe she could be dissuaded by Bush. If Rice leaves, she could be replaced by Stephen J. Hadley, who is her deputy and is close to Cheney, or by Robert Blackwill, who is now the White House’s point man on Iraq. Hadley worked in the administration of the President George H.W. Bush and is seen as a consensus builder.

Also a possibility for the post is I. Lewis Libby, the chief of staff to Cheney. Libby’s selection would be another sign of Cheney’s primacy on national security affairs.

Another top candidate to be secretary of State is John C. Danforth, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. The former Missouri senator is deeply conservative and an ordained minister, and his choice would be welcomed by religious conservatives, an important Bush constituency.

Still uncertain is the future of Paul D. Wolfowitz, the controversial No. 2 official at the Pentagon. Wolfowitz has let it be known that he would like a new job in the new administration but does not want another term in his current post, say Pentagon officials. As a former U.S. diplomat and State Department planner, he could be Secretary of State; he is said to be a possibility as Defense secretary as well. But because of his role as a chief advocate of the Iraq war, Wolfowitz would also face a confirmation fight in the Senate.

One former administration official said that by appointing Wolfowitz, Bush would be affirming that he had no doubts about the war and was “willing to have a public fight over it.”

There has been speculation that Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage would leave with Powell, his close friend and ally in interdepartmental fights. But one prominent Republican said he believed Armitage was viewed favorably at the White House and could be given a senior post at Defense or another agency.

At the Justice Department, many expect Bush to replace Atty. Gen. John Ashcroft, with former Deputy Atty. Gen. Larry D. Thompson and White House Counsel Alberto Gonzales as the leading candidates. Thompson would be the first African American attorney general, and Gonzales the first Latino.

It is not clear whether Thompson wants the job; in August, he took a lucrative position as senior vice president and general counsel at Pepsico. Gonzales has expressed interest privately in becoming attorney general, former administration officials say.

Other possible replacements include two relative moderates: Bush reelection chairman Mark Racicot, a former governor of Montana, who was considered a leading candidate four years ago, and former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

If Bush looks to the right, he could choose former Alabama Atty. Gen. William H. Pryor Jr. Bush appointed him to a federal appeals court seat during a congressional recess in February, circumventing the Senate confirmation process and skirting opposition from Democrats who thought the choice of Pryor, an outspoken opponent of legalized abortion, was extreme.

Ashcroft’s departure isn’t a certainly, but current and former aides believe that after nearly four years of unrelenting scrutiny, he is ready to move on. They said he planed to submit his resignation to Bush in the next several days, effective in January.

Bush could ask him to stay on, at least for a time. Ashcroft still has strong appeal among social conservatives who were a crucial source of strength for the president Tuesday.

Others say that his political utility to the administration has declined, and could be an impediment to renewing portions of the U.S. Patriot Act, which are due to expire at the end of 2005 and require reauthorization by Congress.

In economic policy, Bush is expected to stick with Treasury Secretary John W. Snow. But the major economic appointment of the new term is a year away. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s full 14-year term at the Fed expires on Jan. 31, 2006, and by law he can’t be appointed to another term.

Bush’s leading candidate is said to be Harvard economist Martin S. Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was President Reagan’s chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors from 1982-84.

He was a deficit hawk in that role, a posture that didn’t endear him to that tax-cutting administration and might be a strike against him with the current one.

Bush’s secretary of Homeland Security, Tom Ridge, is said to be ready to move on to another job, most likely in the private sector. A prospect to replace him is Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach), chairman of the House Select Committee on Homeland Security. Another is Asa Hutchinson, undersecretary for border and transportation security.

Norman Y. Mineta, the secretary of Transportation, is not expected to stay for a second term. Mineta, a longtime San Jose congressman and the only Democrat in the Bush Cabinet, will be 73 in January. Federal Aviation Administration Administrator Marion C. Blakey has the inside track on succeeding Mineta.

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Possible changes

There will likely be some changes in President Bush’s second-term Cabinet and other posts. Here’s a look at what might happen:

Current member: Secretary of State Colin L. Powell

Possible replacements: Condoleezza Rice; John C. Danforth, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations

Current member: Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld

Possible replacements: Condoleezza Rice

Current member: National security advisor Condoleezza Rice

Possible replacements: Stephen J. Hadley, Rice’s deputy; Robert Blackwill, strategic planning coordinator for Rice; I. Libby Lewis, Vice president’s chief of staff

Current member: Atty. Gen. John Ashcroft

Possible replacements: Larry D. Thompson, senior vice president and general counsel at Pepsico, former deputy attorney general; Alberto Gonzales, White House counsel (See note below)

Current member: Treasury Secretary John W. Snow

Possible replacements: Peter Fisher, former Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance

Current member: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan

Possible replacements: Martin S. Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research; chairman of Council of Economic Advisors, 1982-84

Current member: Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge

Possible replacements: Rep. Christopher Cox (R-Newport Beach), chairman of the House Select Committee on Homeland Security; Asa Hutchinson, undersecretary for border and transportation security

Current member: Norman Y. Mineta, Transportation Secretary

Possible replacements: Marion C. Blakey, FAA Administrator

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Note: Other possibilities for U.S. attorney general: Mark Racicot, former governor of Montana; Rudolph W. Guiliani, former New York City mayor; William H. Pryor Jr., federal appeals court judge

Staff writers Doyle McManus, Richard B. Schmitt, Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar, Joel Havemann, Maura Reynolds and John Hendren contributed to this report.